The model favours an away win, with a 44 % chance of Glentoran triumphing, 30 % for Cliftonville and 26 % for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 22 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.7 % chance. Cliftonville, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Glentoran, on the road against a similar side, scores 1.7 and concedes 1.4 on average. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Under 6.5 (96.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.4 %), Under 5.5 (90.3 %), Away +2 handicap (85.8 %), Home under 2.5 goals (83.2 %) and Over 1.5 (83.0 %). Cliftonville are coming off a defeat to Linfield, while Glentoran arrive after a win over Ballymena United.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cliftonville FC win
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glentoran win
46.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cliftonville FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.67
1.79
1.71
1.31
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.52
1.55
1.45
1.29
1.57
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
2.40
2.67
2.67
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glentoran
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.10
1.87
1.00
2.07
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.74
1.37
1.78
1.33
1.70
1.40
vs Weaker (11)
2.36
0.64
2.00
0.50
2.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.4%
2-1
7.1%
0-2
7.0%
0-1
6.9%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.6%
1-3
5.5%
Cliftonville FC goals ↓
Glentoran goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
6.9%
7.0%
4.1%
1.8%
1
4.9%
12%
9.4%
5.5%
2.4%
2
4.0%
7.1%
6.3%
3.7%
1.6%
3
1.8%
3.1%
2.8%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cliftonville FC goals (down), columns = Glentoran goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Cliftonville FC is 0.67 points worse than Glentoran in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Cliftonville FC is 0.49 goals worse than Glentoran in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Cliftonville FC is 0.56 goals worse than Glentoran in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cliftonville FC or Draw
53.4%
Avg Implied -
28%
25%
47%
covers Cliftonville FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC or Glentoran
74.6%
Avg Implied -
28%
25%
47%
covers Cliftonville FC + Glentoran
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Glentoran
72.0%
Avg Implied -
28%
25%
47%
covers Draw + Glentoran
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 0.5
Over
82.9%
Under
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 3.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cliftonville FC, so a minus line means Cliftonville FC give that many goals of a start and Glentoran receive them. At -1, Cliftonville FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cliftonville FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC -2
4.3%
Draw -2
8.2%
Glentoran +2
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC -1
12.6%
Draw -1
15.4%
Glentoran +1
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC +1
53.4%
Draw +1
20.8%
Glentoran -1
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC +2
74.2%
Draw +2
14.5%
Glentoran -2
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cliftonville FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.86
0.71
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.60
0.55
0.45
0.79
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.40
2.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glentoran
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.53
0.60
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.58
0.33
0.78
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.36
0.83
0.33
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cliftonville FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.93
1.00
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.86
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glentoran
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.60
1.33
0.40
1.27
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.26
0.79
1.44
0.56
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.27
1.17
0.17
1.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Glentoran have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Glentoran have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Glentoran have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Glentoran have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Ballymena United
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor