Cliftonville FCās recent form shows a dip after two straight defeats, yet their home scoring average of 1.55 goals and conceding 1.45 against similar opposition suggests they can find the net again. Portadown, struggling with four consecutive losses, averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.85 conceded away, indicating a defensive frailty that Cliftonville could exploit. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% probability. The favourite outcome is a Cliftonville win, with home win odds at 52%, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 24%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Under 6.5 at 95.8%, Home +2 handicap at 89.9%, Under 5.5 at 89.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 87.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 86.9%, and Home over 0.5 goals at 85.3%. These selections reflect the modelās confidence that Cliftonville will win in a moderately high-scoring match.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Cliftonville FC win
51.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Portadown win
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Cliftonville FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.67
1.79
1.71
1.31
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.52
1.55
1.45
1.29
1.57
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
2.40
2.67
2.67
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portadown
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.70
0.69
1.31
1.29
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
2.00
1.00
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.60
0.58
1.33
1.46
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.0%
Under 2.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.7%
Under 3.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-0
7.1%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
5.3%
Cliftonville FC goals ↓
Portadown goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.4%
3.4%
1.4%
0.5%
1
7.1%
11%
6.4%
2.7%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.6%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.8%
6.1%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.3%
2.9%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cliftonville FC goals (down), columns = Portadown goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Cliftonville FC is 0.20 points better than Portadown in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.16).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Cliftonville FC is 0.28 goals better than Portadown in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.16).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Cliftonville FC is 0.17 goals better than Portadown in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.74).
ā±ļø Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
š² 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
š 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cliftonville FC or Draw
75.6%
Avg Implied -
51%
24%
24%
covers Cliftonville FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC or Portadown
75.5%
Avg Implied -
51%
24%
24%
covers Cliftonville FC + Portadown
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Portadown
48.9%
Avg Implied -
51%
24%
24%
covers Draw + Portadown
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 0.5
Over
71.7%
Under
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
āļø 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cliftonville FC, so a minus line means Cliftonville FC give that many goals of a start and Portadown receive them. At -1, Cliftonville FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cliftonville FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC -2
13.8%
Draw -2
15.8%
Portadown +2
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC -1
29.7%
Draw -1
21.4%
Portadown +1
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC +1
75.6%
Draw +1
13.9%
Portadown -1
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC +2
89.5%
Draw +2
7.1%
Portadown -2
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cliftonville FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.86
0.71
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.60
0.55
0.45
0.79
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.40
2.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portadown
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.46
0.62
0.47
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.76
0.33
0.58
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cliftonville FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.93
1.00
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.86
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portadown
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.23
0.69
0.82
1.12
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.84
0.25
0.75
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Portadown have a similar squad value (both €2m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Portadown have a similar attack value (both €1m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Portadown have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Portadown have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Ballymena United
Larne
Limavady United
Bangor