Clyde are tipped to lift the win at home, with a 55% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of a Dumbarton win. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7% probability. Clyde’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Dumbarton, on the road, averages 1.33 scored and 1.89 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 83%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 79.3% and Over 2.5 cards at 71.5%. These picks reflect the expected flow of the game and the teams’ recent performances.
Results analysis
The match saw Clyde extend a two-game winning run, while Dumbarton struggled after two straight defeats. The Pythia model’s favourite, a home win, proved accurate as Clyde secured a 2-0 victory. The model’s pre-match probability for a home win was 55%. The suggested selections performed well: Under 5.5 cards hit at 83%, Over 1.5 hit at 80.1%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 79.3%, and Over 2.5 cards hit at 71.5%. All four picks settled as predicted, confirming the model’s overall accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Clyde win✓ Hit
54.8%
Avg Implied 55.1% · @ 1.63
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.82
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton win✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied 21.3% · @ 4.21
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Clyde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.07
1.73
1.13
1.73
1.00
vs Stronger (25)
1.84
1.08
1.75
1.25
1.92
0.92
vs Similar (5)
1.20
1.00
1.67
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.50
1.44
1.07
1.86
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
1.55
1.67
1.33
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.37
1.68
1.40
1.50
1.33
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.1%
@ 1.55-3.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
@ 2.25+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0 ✓
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
6.4%
3-1
6.1%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
Clyde goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
4.6%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
1
8.9%
12%
5.7%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.7%
6.1%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.7%
2.9%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Clyde goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Clyde is 0.44 points better than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Clyde is 0.31 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Clyde is 0.56 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Clyde
For 5.3 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dumbarton
For 5.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 8.6 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clyde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.7
9.4
4.0
3.8
4.1
22.1
23.5
20.9
vs Stronger (42)
10.2
11.2
9.3
3.9
3.8
4.0
21.8
23.4
20.2
vs Similar (8)
9.0
8.0
9.6
4.2
4.0
4.4
23.9
24.0
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
57%
33%
62%
54%
69%
53%
67%
42%
% under line
56%
43%
67%
38%
46%
31%
47%
33%
58%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.4
9.5
3.2
3.5
2.8
20.8
20.9
20.7
vs Stronger (24)
10.8
13.2
8.6
2.7
2.8
2.6
20.8
19.8
21.8
vs Similar (26)
10.2
10.2
10.3
3.7
4.1
3.1
20.8
21.6
19.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
61%
43%
42%
52%
30%
43%
48%
38%
% under line
48%
39%
57%
58%
48%
70%
57%
52%
62%
This opponent (Clyde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
Dumbarton
10.6
East Kilbride
10.5
Elgin
10.4
Stranraer
10.2
Clyde
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Forfar
4.5
Elgin
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Spartans
4.2
Stirling
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.1
Dumbarton
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.7
Forfar
24.4
Edinburgh City
24.1
Elgin
22.5
Stranraer
22.4
Clyde
22.4
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stirling
21.0
Dumbarton
20.4
Spartans
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.0%
Under 9.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.6%
Under 3.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.7%
Under 21.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Clyde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.60
0.53
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (25)
0.76
0.48
0.67
0.58
0.85
0.38
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.62
0.69
0.29
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.82
0.67
0.50
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.89
0.60
0.80
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Clyde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Clyde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.13
0.60
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (25)
1.08
0.60
1.08
0.67
1.08
0.54
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.60
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.88
0.75
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.73
1.00
0.83
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.79
0.80
0.70
0.89
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Clyde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →