Cobh Ramblers, fresh from a draw, are set to host Finn Harps in a high-scoring encounter that the model deems most likely to end in a home win. The probability spread shows 40% for a Cobh victory, 25% for a draw and 35% for a Finn win, so the favoured result is a home win. The expected total goals is 3.3, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at an 11% probability. Cobh’s home form shows an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against similar opposition, while Finn’s away form averages 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 85.3% chance that the match will see over 1.5 goals, a hit in the final tally. The match is expected to be a lively affair, with both sides likely to find the net.
Results analysis
The win extends Cobh Ramblers’ recent form, coming off a draw and now securing a 4-1 victory over Finn Harps. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 40% probability, and it proved correct. The predicted total of 3.3 goals and the most likely scoreline of 3 goals were close, but the match saw a higher tally. The only selection made was Over 1.5, with an 85.3% chance, and it hit. The final score of 4-1 confirmed the home win, matching the model’s expectation and underscoring the accuracy of the Pythia predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cobh Ramblers win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cobh Ramblers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.97
1.33
2.27
1.27
1.67
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
2.31
1.00
2.78
0.43
1.71
vs Similar (9)
2.00
1.22
1.50
1.25
2.40
1.20
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
2.20
2.50
2.00
1.33
2.33
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.03
1.25
1.56
0.79
2.57
vs Stronger (24)
0.96
2.08
1.17
1.50
0.75
2.67
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.83
1.50
1.75
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.2%
Under 2.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.3%
No
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
5.4%
1-0
5.3%
3-1
4.9%
0-1
4.8%
Cobh Ramblers goals ↓
Finn Harps goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
4.8%
4.6%
2.4%
1.0%
1
5.3%
11%
7.9%
4.2%
1.7%
2
5.4%
8.6%
6.8%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.1%
4.9%
3.9%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.3%
2.1%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cobh Ramblers goals (down), columns = Finn Harps goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galway United
2.61
Waterford
1.90
Cobh Ramblers
1.64
Wexford
1.42
Athlone Town
1.26
Treaty United
1.22
Bray Wanderers
1.22
Longford Town
1.11
Finn Harps
1.03
Kerry
0.28
Cobh Ramblers is 0.61 points better than Finn Harps in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Galway United
2.72
Waterford
2.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.64
Athlone Town
1.50
Treaty United
1.36
Bray Wanderers
1.33
Wexford
1.29
Longford Town
1.08
Finn Harps
1.08
Kerry
0.81
Cobh Ramblers is 0.56 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galway United
0.50
Waterford
0.90
Wexford
1.34
Cobh Ramblers
1.36
Longford Town
1.42
Treaty United
1.69
Athlone Town
1.71
Bray Wanderers
1.72
Finn Harps
2.06
Kerry
2.53
Cobh Ramblers is 0.70 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 2.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cobh Ramblers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.87
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (16)
0.19
0.69
0.33
0.89
0.00
0.43
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.78
0.75
0.75
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.75
0.62
0.29
1.43
vs Stronger (24)
0.46
1.08
0.67
0.58
0.25
1.58
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cobh Ramblers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.23
0.80
1.40
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.62
0.67
1.89
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (9)
1.44
0.44
0.75
0.50
2.00
0.40
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
1.40
1.50
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.03
0.50
0.94
0.50
1.14
vs Stronger (24)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.92
0.50
1.08
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.17
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Cobh Ramblers and Finn Harps have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WAT (6)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
TU (1)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Cobh Ramblers and Finn Harps have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Cobh Ramblers and Finn Harps have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CR (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Cobh Ramblers and Finn Harps have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Galway United
Waterford
Wexford
Athlone Town
Treaty United
Bray Wanderers
Longford Town
Kerry