Colchester are tipped to win, with a 49 % chance of triumph, a 28 % chance of a draw, and a 23 % chance of a Rochdale victory. The average goal count sits at 2.5, and the most probable total is two goals, a 27 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3 % chance. Colchester’s home form shows they average 1.0 goal scored and 2.5 conceded against stronger opposition, while Rochdale’s away form is 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded versus stronger teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.6 % with a 4 % edge), Under 6.5 (98.5 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2 % with a 4 % edge), Under 5.5 (95.6 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.6 % with a 7 % edge), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (93.4 %). Colchester’s recent win over Oldham and Rochdale’s two-straight defeats set the stage for a tightly contested fixture.
Results analysis
The match saw Colchester extend their two-game winning run, beating Rochdale 1-0. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct, with a 49% probability. The final score matched the most likely 1-0 outcome, and the total goals fell well below the 2.5 expectation. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 5.5 (95.6%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.9%) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (93.1%). The model’s predictions were remarkably accurate, with all picks settling in favour of the low-scoring result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Colchester win✓ Hit
49.4%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.22
Edge
+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.32
Dafabet
2.29
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Unibet
2.25
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.34
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.60
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Rochdale win✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 3.06
Edge
-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.49
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Colchester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.10
1.47
0.93
1.07
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.48
1.04
1.75
0.92
1.23
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.23
2.00
1.13
1.53
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
2.00
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.25
vs Similar (22)
1.77
1.05
1.83
1.00
1.70
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.2%
@ 1.29+1.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
@ 3.32-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.46
Superbet
3.35
Unibet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.5%
@ 1.95-1.7%
Under 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.81+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.97
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
@ 3.36-2.7%
Under 3.5
75.0%
@ 1.29+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.55
10Bet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Under
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.5%
@ 1.73-2.9%
No
49.5%
@ 1.98+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
No
Betfair
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.02+5.9%
1-0 ✓
11.1%@ 7.33+5.1%
2-0
9.6%@ 10.26+5.2%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.42+4.1%
0-0
9.1%@ 8.80+4.1%
0-1
6.6%@ 8.72+1.5%
1-2
5.9%@ 10.06+1.5%
3-0
5.0%@ 20.41+2.8%
Colchester goals ↓
Rochdale goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
6.6%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.4%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.0%
4.9%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Colchester goals (down), columns = Rochdale goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Colchester is 0.55 points better than Rochdale in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Colchester is 0.52 goals better than Rochdale in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Colchester is 0.94 goals better than Rochdale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 2.01).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Colchester
For 5.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rochdale
For 4.0 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Colchester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.8
9.6
4.0
4.3
3.7
25.0
24.5
25.5
vs Stronger (9)
8.1
7.5
8.8
3.8
2.2
5.8
25.0
23.8
26.2
vs Similar (41)
9.4
9.0
9.8
4.0
4.8
3.3
25.0
24.6
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
33%
48%
60%
64%
56%
76%
75%
76%
% under line
59%
67%
52%
40%
36%
44%
24%
25%
24%
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
8.0
11.3
3.0
2.8
3.2
24.0
26.0
23.3
vs Stronger (6)
10.5
8.0
11.3
3.7
5.0
3.0
24.0
26.0
23.3
vs Similar (40)
-
-
-
2.8
2.6
3.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
3.8
2.0
5.5
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
67%
44%
38%
50%
75%
100%
67%
% under line
50%
100%
33%
56%
62%
50%
25%
0%
33%
This opponent (Colchester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.9%
@ 1.81+1.9%
Under 9.5
47.1%
@ 1.89-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.7%
Under 3.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.5%
Under 21.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Colchester or Draw✓ Hit
77.3%
Avg Implied 69.2% · @ 1.34
Edge
+8.2%
49%
28%
23%
covers Colchester + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Colchester or Rochdale✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.28
Edge
-0.2%
49%
28%
23%
covers Colchester + Rochdale
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Rochdale✗ Miss
50.6%
Avg Implied 58.6% · @ 1.59
Edge
-8.0%
49%
28%
23%
covers Draw + Rochdale
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Colchester over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.8%
@ 1.24+4.2%
Under
21.2%
@ 3.65-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.15
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Superbet
3.60
Colchester over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.0%
@ 2.21+3.9%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.61-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Colchester over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.5%
@ 4.94+1.7%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.14-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Colchester over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 12.08-0.6%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Rochdale over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
62.5%
@ 1.36-5.7%
Under
37.5%
@ 2.92+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.95
10Bet
2.95
Rochdale over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.7%
@ 2.77-7.9%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.40+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.13
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Betano
2.77
BetVictor
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Rochdale over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 6.71-6.2%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.08+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
1xBet
6.65
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Rochdale over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 16.75-3.9%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Colchester, so a minus line means Colchester give that many goals of a start and Rochdale receive them. At -1, Colchester must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Colchester win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Colchester)Actual: Rochdale
Colchester -2
10.8%
@ 9.53+1.4%
Draw -2
15.5%
@ 6.24+1.1%
Rochdale +2
73.8%
@ 1.18-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
6.10
Away
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
Handicap -1 (Colchester)Actual: Draw
Colchester -1
26.2%
@ 4.33+5.6%
Draw -1
23.2%
@ 3.81-0.2%
Rochdale +1
50.6%
@ 1.60-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Superbet
4.20
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Handicap +1 (Colchester)Actual: Colchester
Colchester +1
77.3%
@ 1.35+11.5%
Draw +1
14.2%
@ 4.51-5.5%
Rochdale -1
8.5%
@ 6.16-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Colchester)Actual: Colchester
Colchester +2
91.5%
@ 1.09+7.9%
Draw +2
6.2%
@ 8.83-4.2%
Rochdale -2
2.3%
@ 15.33-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.00
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Colchester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.53
0.33
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.42
0.54
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
1.00
0.53
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.45
1.00
0.50
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.4%
@ 1.39+5.6%
Under 0.5
27.6%
@ 2.79-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.95
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Unibet
2.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.9%
@ 2.81+3.8%
Under 1.5
63.1%
@ 1.39-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.96
Betano
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
10Bet
2.80
Under
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.0%
@ 7.08+3.9%
Under 2.5
83.0%
@ 1.07-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Colchester over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
65.1%
@ 1.97+18.1%
Under
34.9%
@ 1.75-18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Colchester over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.9%
@ 6.03+10.5%
Under
74.1%
@ 1.10-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Colchester over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 17.92+1.5%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.01-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Rochdale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
27.1%
@ 2.26-13.9%
Under
72.9%
@ 1.57+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Under
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Rochdale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 7.40-7.4%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.06+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.80
Superbet
7.30
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Rochdale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 19.75-4.1%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Colchester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.93
0.60
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.64
1.08
0.50
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.00
0.60
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.59
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.9%
@ 1.25+9.5%
Under 0.5
16.1%
@ 3.62-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Under
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.52
1xBet
3.52
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
55.6%
@ 2.15+12.3%
Under 1.5
44.4%
@ 1.64-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
William Hil
2.15
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.7%
@ 4.60+2.5%
Under 2.5
77.3%
@ 1.17-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Colchester over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
70.2%
@ 1.71+16.0%
Under
29.8%
@ 2.02-16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Under
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Colchester over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
33.3%
@ 4.41+12.3%
Under
66.7%
@ 1.17-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Colchester over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 11.50+3.3%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.03-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Rochdale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.3%
@ 1.89-10.8%
Under
61.7%
@ 1.81+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Rochdale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 5.50-5.3%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.12+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
Superbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Rochdale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 15.42-4.4%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.5%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.9%
1.25
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.8%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.3%
1.34
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.35
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.3%
1.35
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.14
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.0%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.3%
1.40
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.1%
1.10
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-10.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.2%
1.29
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
72.9%
1.57
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
+13.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
1.39
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
10Bet
1.40
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.1%
1.28
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.8%
1.32
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
70.2%
1.71
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
+16.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Colchester
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jaden Williams33%
Harry Anderson25%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Vincent-Young25%
Ellis Iandolo25%
Rob Hunt25%
J. Tucker25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Vincent-Young25%
O. Thorn25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Anderson75%
M. Sesay33%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Rochdale
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Adeeko33%
Luke Hanannt25%
Ryan East25%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell20%
Z. Silcott-Duberry20%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
D. Brown0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Moss50%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling25%
Sam Sherring25%
D. Brown25%
Kaiden Wilson25%
H. Gilmour20%
Nils Ramming20%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
E. Francis0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
B. Adeeko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan East25%
D. Brown25%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe20%
H. Gilmour0%
Luke Hanannt0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Hanannt25%
D. Brown25%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Colchester's squad is €1m more valuable than Rochdale's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Colchester and Rochdale have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Colchester and Rochdale have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Colchester and Rochdale have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale