Coleraine FC are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 62 % chance of a home win, 22 % for a draw and 17 % for Ballymena United. The prediction favours a 1-1 scoreline, the most likely result at 10.2 %. The expected total is 3.2 goals, with a 22 % probability that the final tally will be exactly three. Coleraine’s home form shows they average 2.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded against weaker opposition, while Ballymena United, playing away against a stronger side, average 1.22 scored and 1.67 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8 %), Under 6.5 (95.7 %), Home +2 handicap (93.8 %), Away under 2.5 goals (91.2 %), Under 5.5 (89.7 %), Home over 0.5 goals (88.2 %) and Over 1.5 (83.5 %). Coleraine’s recent win over Carrick Rangers and Ballymena’s recent defeats set the tone for a likely home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Coleraine FC win
62.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United win
16.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Coleraine FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.03
2.64
1.00
1.62
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
2.23
1.05
2.89
1.00
1.77
1.08
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.71
2.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballymena United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.60
1.13
1.33
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.58
0.80
1.60
1.14
1.57
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.61
1.30
1.20
1.25
2.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.6%
1-0
8.0%
3-1
7.1%
3-0
6.9%
2-2
5.1%
0-0
5.1%
Coleraine FC goals ↓
Ballymena United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.3%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
1
8.0%
10%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.6%
9.9%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.9%
7.1%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.7%
3.8%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Coleraine FC goals (down), columns = Ballymena United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Coleraine FC is 1.08 points better than Ballymena United in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Coleraine FC is 0.97 goals better than Ballymena United in terms of goals scored per game (2.18 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Coleraine FC is 0.55 goals better than Ballymena United in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Coleraine FC or Draw
83.9%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers Coleraine FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC or Ballymena United
78.4%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers Coleraine FC + Ballymena United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ballymena United
37.7%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers Draw + Ballymena United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5
Over
88.5%
Under
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 3.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5
Over
64.2%
Under
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Coleraine FC, so a minus line means Coleraine FC give that many goals of a start and Ballymena United receive them. At -1, Coleraine FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Coleraine FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Coleraine FC)
Coleraine FC -2
20.9%
Draw -2
19.1%
Ballymena United +2
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Coleraine FC)
Coleraine FC -1
40.0%
Draw -1
22.3%
Ballymena United +1
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Coleraine FC)
Coleraine FC +1
83.9%
Draw +1
10.1%
Ballymena United -1
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Coleraine FC)
Coleraine FC +2
94.1%
Draw +2
4.3%
Ballymena United -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.79
0.64
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
0.89
0.67
0.85
0.46
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.25
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballymena United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.40
0.73
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.78
0.40
0.60
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.6%
Under 0.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.3%
Under 1.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.7%
Under 2.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.47
1.86
0.36
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.36
0.50
2.00
0.33
0.92
0.62
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.29
2.00
0.25
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballymena United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.60
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.58
0.40
0.60
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.83
0.90
0.60
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.7%
Under 0.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.8%
Under 1.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.0%
Under 2.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
37.3%
Under
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.6%
Under
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Ballymena United have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Ballymena United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Ballymena United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Ballymena United have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor