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Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC Result & Analysis

Date: 11/05/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 0-2
Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
Vs
37%
28%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cliftonville FC
Cliftonville FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 37%. The draw sits at 28% while Cliftonville’s chances are 35%. The average goal tally is 2.8, and the most likely total is 2 goals, a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance. Coleraine, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Cliftonville, on the road against a similar opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 78.1%. The model’s selection list is limited to this pick. The home win probability is 37%, the draw 28%, and the away win 35%.

Results analysis

The 0-2 away win for Cliftonville FC was a shock, as the pre-match favourite, Coleraine FC, had been tipped to win with a 37% probability. The model’s call was wrong, and the result was an upset. Cliftonville, on a 2-game winning run after a 3-0 victory over Portadown, capitalised on a home side that had been in a 2-game winning streak but had struggled recently. The suggested pick Over 1.5, with a 78.1% chance, hit as the match produced two goals. The final score of 0-2 confirms the away side’s triumph and the model’s prediction missed the mark.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Coleraine FC win✗ Miss
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC win✓ Hit
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D22D10W12L32W12L03L10W10WA·GLE08/03A·LAR15/03H·CLI18/03H·POR22/03A·GLE01/04H·DUN05/04H·LAR12/04A·CRU19/04H·LIN26/04H·CRU07/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.271.501.141.381.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.421.291.461.081.361.55
vs Weaker (6)1.501.172.002.001.401.00
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L01L22D30W31W50W20W02L41W20WH·DUN12/03A·BAL15/03A·COL18/03H·CAR22/03A·CAR01/04H·BAL05/04H·GLE12/04A·POR19/04A·LOU26/04A·GLE07/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.031.930.571.251.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.501.151.750.881.331.33
vs Weaker (10)1.700.802.170.171.001.75
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
6.2%
2-2
5.8%
Coleraine FC goals ↓
Cliftonville FC goals →
01234
07.3%7.2%5.7%2.6%0.9%
17.5%13%8.2%3.7%1.3%
26.2%8.5%5.8%2.7%0.9%
32.9%4.0%2.8%1.3%0.4%
41.0%1.4%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Coleraine FC goals (down), columns = Cliftonville FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Linfield
2.24
Larne
1.66
Cliftonville FC
1.60
Glentoran
1.56
Dungannon Swifts
1.50
Portadown
1.47
Coleraine FC
1.45
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.24
Glenavon FC
1.21
Carrick Rangers
0.95
Loughgall
0.58
Annagh United
0.00
Coleraine FC is 0.15 points worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Linfield
1.82
Cliftonville FC
1.55
Annagh United
1.50
Coleraine FC
1.40
Dungannon Swifts
1.34
Portadown
1.26
Glentoran
1.26
Ballymena United
1.24
Larne
1.21
Crusaders FC
1.21
Glenavon FC
1.11
Carrick Rangers
1.00
Loughgall
0.95
Coleraine FC is 0.15 goals worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.55).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Linfield
0.74
Larne
0.87
Glentoran
1.00
Cliftonville FC
1.02
Portadown
1.18
Glenavon FC
1.24
Dungannon Swifts
1.26
Coleraine FC
1.30
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.42
Carrick Rangers
1.55
Loughgall
2.24
Annagh United
4.00
Coleraine FC is 0.28 goals worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.02).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D01L21W11D01L10W10WA·GLE08/03A·LAR15/03H·CLI18/03H·POR22/03A·GLE01/04H·DUN05/04H·LAR12/04A·CRU19/04H·LIN26/04H·CRU07/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.500.640.500.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.540.580.540.540.550.64
vs Weaker (6)0.330.670.002.000.400.40
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D10W11D10W00D01L10W00DH·DUN12/03A·BAL15/03A·COL18/03H·CAR22/03A·CAR01/04H·BAL05/04H·GLE12/04A·POR19/04A·LOU26/04A·GLE07/05
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.400.570.210.380.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.500.400.620.380.420.42
vs Weaker (10)0.400.400.500.000.251.00
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D22D10W11D11D01L02L00D00DA·GLE08/03A·LAR15/03H·CLI18/03H·POR22/03A·GLE01/04H·DUN05/04H·LAR12/04A·CRU19/04H·LIN26/04H·CRU07/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.671.000.500.880.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.880.710.920.540.820.91
vs Weaker (6)1.170.502.000.001.000.60
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L22D20W20W40W20W01L31W20WH·DUN12/03A·BAL15/03A·COL18/03H·CAR22/03A·CAR01/04H·BAL05/04H·GLE12/04A·POR19/04A·LOU26/04A·GLE07/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.631.360.360.880.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.000.751.120.500.920.92
vs Weaker (10)1.300.401.670.170.750.75
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
CF wins
3
Draws
5
CF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/25HCF Vs Cliftonville FC2-2
04/02/25HCF Vs Cliftonville FC0-0
22/10/24ACliftonville FC Vs CF2-1
06/04/24HCF Vs Cliftonville FC2-2
10/02/24ACliftonville FC Vs CF4-1
28/10/23HCF Vs Cliftonville FC1-2
26/09/23ACliftonville FC Vs CF5-0
10/05/23ACliftonville FC Vs CF2-1

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/25HCF Vs Crusaders FC1-0
26/04/25HCF Vs Linfield1-0
19/04/25ACrusaders FC Vs CF3-0
12/04/25HCF Vs Larne1-2
05/04/25HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts3-2
01/04/25AGlentoran Vs CF2-1
22/03/25HCF Vs Portadown1-0
18/03/25HCF Vs Cliftonville FC2-2
15/03/25ALarne Vs CF1-1
08/03/25AGlenavon FC Vs CF0-1

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/25AGlentoran Vs CF0-2
26/04/25ALoughgall Vs CF1-4
19/04/25APortadown Vs CF2-0
12/04/25HCF Vs Glenavon FC2-0
05/04/25HCF Vs Ballymena United5-0
01/04/25ACarrick Rangers Vs CF1-3
22/03/25HCF Vs Carrick Rangers3-0
18/03/25AColeraine FC Vs CF2-2
15/03/25ABallymena United Vs CF1-0
12/03/25HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.44
HomeWWLWW1.60
AwayWWDLL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals2.762.682.84
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %56%52%60%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.421.441.40
Conceded1.341.241.44
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Cliftonville FC
Cliftonville FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.38
HomeWLWWW1.77
AwayDWLWW1.07
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%55%29%
AVG goals2.802.323.18
Over 1.5 %82%73%89%
Over 2.5 %50%45%54%
Over 3.5 %30%18%39%
Scored1.441.501.39
Conceded1.360.821.79
BTTS46%23%64%
Clean Sheet30%59%7%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LinfieldLinfield3885
71%
2.2
6928+41
2.6
71%
55%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.7
-
2Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4064
48%
1.6
6241+21
2.6
78%
45%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.0
-
3LarneLarne3863
45%
1.7
4633+13
2.1
66%
34%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
4GlentoranGlentoran3961
44%
1.6
4939+10
2.3
67%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.0
-
5Coleraine FCColeraine FC4058
40%
1.4
5652+4
2.7
80%
55%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
-
6Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3857
45%
1.5
5148+3
2.6
71%
42%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.31.3
-
7PortadownPortadown3856
42%
1.5
4845+3
2.4
76%
42%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.2
-
8Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3954
41%
1.4
4754-7
2.6
67%
51%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.4
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3847
37%
1.2
4754-7
2.7
66%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.4
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3846
32%
1.2
4247-5
2.3
71%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
11Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers4038
22%
0.9
4062-22
2.5
70%
55%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.6
-
12LoughgallLoughgall3822
13%
0.6
3685-49
3.2
82%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United20
0%
0.0
38-5
5.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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