The contest between Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 37%. The draw sits at 28% while Cliftonville’s chances are 35%. The average goal tally is 2.8, and the most likely total is 2 goals, a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance. Coleraine, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Cliftonville, on the road against a similar opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 78.1%. The model’s selection list is limited to this pick. The home win probability is 37%, the draw 28%, and the away win 35%.
Results analysis
The 0-2 away win for Cliftonville FC was a shock, as the pre-match favourite, Coleraine FC, had been tipped to win with a 37% probability. The model’s call was wrong, and the result was an upset. Cliftonville, on a 2-game winning run after a 3-0 victory over Portadown, capitalised on a home side that had been in a 2-game winning streak but had struggled recently. The suggested pick Over 1.5, with a 78.1% chance, hit as the match produced two goals. The final score of 0-2 confirms the away side’s triumph and the model’s prediction missed the mark.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Coleraine FC win✗ Miss
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC win✓ Hit
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Coleraine FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.50
1.14
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.42
1.29
1.46
1.08
1.36
1.55
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
1.17
2.00
2.00
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cliftonville FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.03
1.93
0.57
1.25
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.50
1.15
1.75
0.88
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.80
2.17
0.17
1.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
6.2%
2-2
5.8%
Coleraine FC goals ↓
Cliftonville FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
7.2%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.5%
13%
8.2%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.2%
8.5%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.9%
4.0%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Coleraine FC goals (down), columns = Cliftonville FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Linfield
2.24
Larne
1.66
Cliftonville FC
1.60
Glentoran
1.56
Dungannon Swifts
1.50
Portadown
1.47
Coleraine FC
1.45
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.24
Glenavon FC
1.21
Carrick Rangers
0.95
Loughgall
0.58
Annagh United
0.00
Coleraine FC is 0.15 points worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Linfield
1.82
Cliftonville FC
1.55
Annagh United
1.50
Coleraine FC
1.40
Dungannon Swifts
1.34
Portadown
1.26
Glentoran
1.26
Ballymena United
1.24
Larne
1.21
Crusaders FC
1.21
Glenavon FC
1.11
Carrick Rangers
1.00
Loughgall
0.95
Coleraine FC is 0.15 goals worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Linfield
0.74
Larne
0.87
Glentoran
1.00
Cliftonville FC
1.02
Portadown
1.18
Glenavon FC
1.24
Dungannon Swifts
1.26
Coleraine FC
1.30
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.42
Carrick Rangers
1.55
Loughgall
2.24
Annagh United
4.00
Coleraine FC is 0.28 goals worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.50
0.64
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.58
0.54
0.54
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
2.00
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cliftonville FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.57
0.21
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.40
0.62
0.38
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (10)
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.71
0.92
0.54
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cliftonville FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.36
0.36
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.00
0.75
1.12
0.50
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.40
1.67
0.17
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →