Coleraine FC are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win. The match is expected to see three goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.4% probability. Coleraine’s home form shows they average 2.89 goals scored and concede just one against opponents of similar strength, while Cliftonville’s away record is 1.29 scored and 1.57 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 55% for a Coleraine win, 24% for a draw and 21% for a Cliftonville victory. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 96.6%, Home +2 handicap at 91.9%, Under 5.5 at 91.6%, Away under 2.5 goals at 90.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 87.4% and Home over 0.5 goals at 85.1%. The model’s selection points to a tight contest with a slight edge for the home side.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Coleraine FC win
57.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC win
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Coleraine FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.03
2.64
1.00
1.62
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
2.23
1.05
2.89
1.00
1.77
1.08
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.71
2.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cliftonville FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.67
1.79
1.71
1.31
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.52
1.55
1.45
1.29
1.57
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
2.40
2.67
2.67
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.3%
Under 2.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
6.5%
3-0
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
1-2
5.3%
Coleraine FC goals ↓
Cliftonville FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
4.1%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.6%
11%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.2%
6.5%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.1%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Coleraine FC goals (down), columns = Cliftonville FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Coleraine FC is 0.75 points better than Cliftonville FC in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Coleraine FC is 0.75 goals better than Cliftonville FC in terms of goals scored per game (2.18 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Coleraine FC is 0.59 goals better than Cliftonville FC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Coleraine FC or Draw
81.3%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
19%
covers Coleraine FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC or Cliftonville FC
76.5%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
19%
covers Coleraine FC + Cliftonville FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cliftonville FC
42.2%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
19%
covers Draw + Cliftonville FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5
Over
86.1%
Under
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5
Over
58.7%
Under
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 3.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Coleraine FC, so a minus line means Coleraine FC give that many goals of a start and Cliftonville FC receive them. At -1, Coleraine FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Coleraine FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Coleraine FC)
Coleraine FC -2
17.2%
Draw -2
18.0%
Cliftonville FC +2
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Coleraine FC)
Coleraine FC -1
35.2%
Draw -1
22.6%
Cliftonville FC +1
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Coleraine FC)
Coleraine FC +1
81.3%
Draw +1
11.6%
Cliftonville FC -1
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Coleraine FC)
Coleraine FC +2
92.9%
Draw +2
5.1%
Cliftonville FC -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.79
0.64
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
0.89
0.67
0.85
0.46
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.25
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cliftonville FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.86
0.71
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.60
0.55
0.45
0.79
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.40
2.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.47
1.86
0.36
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.36
0.50
2.00
0.33
0.92
0.62
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.29
2.00
0.25
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cliftonville FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.93
1.00
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.86
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Cliftonville FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Ballymena United
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor