Coleraine FC face Glentoran in a match that feels almost evenly matched, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 37 % for Coleraine, 27 % for a draw, and 36 % for Glentoran. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 24 % of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.7 % chance. Coleraine’s home form shows an average of 2.89 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Glentoran’s away form averages 1.9 scored and 0.9 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.8 % probability. The home win percentage is 37 %, the draw 27 %, and the away win 36 %. All figures are presented exactly as provided, with no additional commentary.
Results analysis
Coleraine FC’s recent win over Carrick Rangers set the tone, and the team carried that momentum into the match at home. The model’s favourite, a Home win, was correct as Coleraine triumphed 6-2, a result that matched the predicted outcome. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 37 %. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.8 % probability, hit as the match produced six goals. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 was not reached, but the overall performance confirmed the model’s predictions. The final score of 6-2 gave Coleraine a decisive victory, validating the model’s call.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Coleraine FC win✓ Hit
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glentoran win✗ Miss
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Coleraine FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.03
2.79
0.86
1.50
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
2.09
1.09
2.89
1.00
1.54
1.15
vs Weaker (8)
2.12
0.88
2.60
0.60
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glentoran
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.00
1.93
0.93
2.13
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.89
1.06
1.88
1.25
1.90
0.90
vs Weaker (12)
2.25
0.92
2.00
0.57
2.60
1.40
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.6%
Under 2.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 3.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.9%
No
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
6.8%
0-1
6.8%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
2-0
5.8%
Coleraine FC goals ↓
Glentoran goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
6.8%
5.7%
2.8%
1.0%
1
6.8%
13%
8.4%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.4%
6.1%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.8%
4.1%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.0%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Coleraine FC goals (down), columns = Glentoran goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Coleraine FC is 0.08 points better than Glentoran in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Coleraine FC is 0.26 goals better than Glentoran in terms of goals scored per game (2.18 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Coleraine FC is 0.03 goals better than Glentoran in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.86
0.71
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.73
0.89
0.89
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.50
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glentoran
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.53
0.93
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.44
0.38
0.75
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.29
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.37
1.93
0.14
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.36
0.36
2.00
0.11
0.92
0.54
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.38
1.80
0.20
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glentoran
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.60
1.27
0.40
1.20
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.33
0.61
1.50
0.50
1.20
0.70
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.58
1.00
0.29
1.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →