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Coleraine FC vs Glentoran Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2026
Time: 16:30
Final 6-2
Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
Vs
37%
27%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Glentoran
Glentoran
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Coleraine FC face Glentoran in a match that feels almost evenly matched, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 37 % for Coleraine, 27 % for a draw, and 36 % for Glentoran. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 24 % of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.7 % chance. Coleraine’s home form shows an average of 2.89 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Glentoran’s away form averages 1.9 scored and 0.9 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.8 % probability. The home win percentage is 37 %, the draw 27 %, and the away win 36 %. All figures are presented exactly as provided, with no additional commentary.

Results analysis

Coleraine FC’s recent win over Carrick Rangers set the tone, and the team carried that momentum into the match at home. The model’s favourite, a Home win, was correct as Coleraine triumphed 6-2, a result that matched the predicted outcome. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 37 %. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.8 % probability, hit as the match produced six goals. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 was not reached, but the overall performance confirmed the model’s predictions. The final score of 6-2 gave Coleraine a decisive victory, validating the model’s call.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Coleraine FC win✓ Hit
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glentoran win✗ Miss
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W11D10W13L10W11D21W41W62W30WH·POR10/02A·CAR14/02H·BAL20/02A·DUN28/02H·CLI14/03A·GLE21/03A·DUN28/03A·LAR07/04H·CLI11/04A·LIN18/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.032.790.861.501.19
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)2.091.092.891.001.541.15
vs Weaker (8)2.120.882.600.601.331.33
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GlentoranGlentoran

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W51W10W40W30W11D11D21W50W00DA·CLI24/02H·CRU28/02H·CAR03/03A·BAN10/03H·CLI18/03H·COL21/03H·LIN28/03A·CLI07/04H·DUN11/04H·LAR17/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.001.930.932.131.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.891.061.881.251.900.90
vs Weaker (12)2.250.922.000.572.601.40
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.6%
Under 2.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 3.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.9%
No
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
6.8%
0-1
6.8%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
2-0
5.8%
Coleraine FC goals ↓
Glentoran goals →
01234
06.6%6.8%5.7%2.8%1.0%
16.8%13%8.4%4.1%1.5%
25.8%8.4%6.1%3.0%1.1%
32.8%4.1%3.0%1.4%0.5%
41.0%1.5%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Coleraine FC goals (down), columns = Glentoran goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Coleraine FC is 0.08 points better than Glentoran in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 2.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Coleraine FC is 0.26 goals better than Glentoran in terms of goals scored per game (2.18 vs 1.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Coleraine FC is 0.03 goals better than Glentoran in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D10W03L00D10W11D11D42W20WH·POR10/02A·CAR14/02H·BAL20/02A·DUN28/02H·CLI14/03A·GLE21/03A·DUN28/03A·LAR07/04H·CLI11/04A·LIN18/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.670.860.710.690.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.730.730.890.890.620.62
vs Weaker (8)0.880.500.800.401.000.67
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GlentoranGlentoran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D20W10W01L01L20W30W00DA·CLI24/02H·CRU28/02H·CAR03/03A·BAN10/03H·CLI18/03H·COL21/03H·LIN28/03A·CLI07/04H·DUN11/04H·LAR17/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.400.670.530.930.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.560.440.380.750.700.20
vs Weaker (12)1.170.331.000.291.400.40
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D00D10W10W01L10W30W20W10WH·POR10/02A·CAR14/02H·BAL20/02A·DUN28/02H·CLI14/03A·GLE21/03A·DUN28/03A·LAR07/04H·CLI11/04A·LIN18/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.371.930.140.810.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.360.362.000.110.920.54
vs Weaker (8)1.250.381.800.200.330.67
Clean sheet %73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GlentoranGlentoran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W41W10W20W20W10W10W01L20W00DA·CLI24/02H·CRU28/02H·CAR03/03A·BAN10/03H·CLI18/03H·COL21/03H·LIN28/03A·CLI07/04H·DUN11/04H·LAR17/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.601.270.401.200.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.330.611.500.501.200.70
vs Weaker (12)1.080.581.000.291.201.00
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
CF wins
2
Draws
4
GLE wins

Head-to-head

Coleraine FC vs Glentoran · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26AGlentoran Vs CF1-1
19/12/25AGlentoran Vs CF2-1
19/09/25HCF Vs Glentoran1-2
01/04/25AGlentoran Vs CF2-1
14/02/25HCF Vs Glentoran1-2
26/10/24HCF Vs Glentoran2-1
20/08/24AGlentoran Vs CF0-0
01/05/24AGlentoran Vs CF0-3

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26ALinfield Vs CF0-3
11/04/26HCF Vs Cliftonville FC6-2
07/04/26ALarne Vs CF1-4
28/03/26ADungannon Swifts Vs CF1-2
21/03/26AGlentoran Vs CF1-1
14/03/26HCF Vs Cliftonville FC1-0
28/02/26ADungannon Swifts Vs CF3-1
20/02/26HCF Vs Ballymena United1-0
14/02/26ACarrick Rangers Vs CF1-1
10/02/26HCF Vs Portadown2-1

GlentoranGlentoran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/26HGLE Vs Larne0-0
11/04/26HGLE Vs Dungannon Swifts5-0
07/04/26ACliftonville FC Vs GLE1-2
28/03/26HGLE Vs Linfield1-1
21/03/26HGLE Vs Coleraine FC1-1
18/03/26HGLE Vs Cliftonville FC3-0
10/03/26ABangor Vs GLE0-4
03/03/26HGLE Vs Carrick Rangers1-0
28/02/26HGLE Vs Crusaders FC5-1
24/02/26ACliftonville FC Vs GLE0-4

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.00
HomeWWWWW2.36
AwayLDWWW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%76%48%
AVG goals2.843.042.64
Over 1.5 %82%76%88%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %28%36%20%
Scored1.862.161.56
Conceded0.980.881.08
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet38%44%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Glentoran
Glentoran
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD1.82
HomeWDDWD1.88
AwayDLWWW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%52%52%
AVG goals2.722.682.76
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.741.681.80
Conceded0.981.000.96
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet38%32%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
7326+47
2.6
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.90.7
-
2Coleraine FCColeraine FC3880
66%
2.1
8337+46
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
3GlentoranGlentoran3877
61%
2.0
7338+35
2.9
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4LinfieldLinfield3969
51%
1.8
6434+30
2.5
72%
49%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.60.9
-
5Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3953
38%
1.4
6561+4
3.2
82%
62%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3953
38%
1.4
5661-5
3.0
77%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.6
-
7Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4152
41%
1.3
4882-34
3.2
83%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.22.0
-
8PortadownPortadown3844
34%
1.2
4466-22
2.9
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
26%
1.0
4658-12
2.7
89%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10BangorBangor3839
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.8
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
11Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4039
28%
1.0
5285-33
3.4
85%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
12Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3828
21%
0.7
3769-32
2.8
79%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
44+0
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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