The match between Coleraine FC and Larne sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring an away win. Home victory stands at 34%, a draw at 30%, and the away side’s 36% chance is the highest. The average number of goals expected is 2.5, with the most likely total being two goals, a 27% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance. Coleraine’s home form shows they average 1.89 goals scored and concede 1.0 against similar opponents, while Larne, on the road, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded to comparable teams. The suggested selections include Under 3.5 goals at 76.5% and Over 1.5 goals at 71.8%. This balanced outlook reflects recent form: Coleraine on a two-game winning run after a 3-0 triumph over Portadown, and Larne coming off a 0-2 loss to Lincoln Red Imps FC.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, failed to materialise as Coleraine FC and Larne finished level on 0-0, a draw that snapped the home side’s two-game winning run. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score was a goalless stalemate. The model had assigned a 36% chance to the away win, yet the match produced no goals. The suggested picks were mixed: Under 3.5, with a 76.5% probability, hit, while Over 1.5, at 71.8%, missed. The game’s outcome also matched the most likely total of two goals, though the scoreline was 0-0.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Coleraine FC win✗ Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larne win✗ Miss
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Coleraine FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.97
1.80
0.87
1.40
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.61
1.00
1.89
1.00
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
0.92
1.67
0.67
1.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.57
1.93
0.33
1.73
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.20
1.60
0.60
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (20)
2.05
0.25
2.10
0.20
2.00
0.30
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.7%
Under 2.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.5%
Under 3.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0 ✓
9.8%
0-1
9.4%
1-0
9.0%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
Coleraine FC goals ↓
Larne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
9.4%
6.7%
2.8%
0.9%
1
9.0%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.2%
7.8%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.5%
3.2%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Coleraine FC goals (down), columns = Larne goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Linfield
2.03
Glentoran
2.00
Cliftonville FC
1.77
Crusaders FC
1.76
Coleraine FC
1.59
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.33
Carrick Rangers
1.05
Ballymena United
1.03
Dungannon Swifts
0.82
Newry City AFC
0.71
Portadown
0.68
Coleraine FC is 0.59 points worse than Larne in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 2.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glentoran
2.10
Linfield
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.89
Cliftonville FC
1.70
Larne
1.68
Coleraine FC
1.54
Glenavon FC
1.49
Carrick Rangers
1.18
Annagh United
1.00
Ballymena United
0.97
Newry City AFC
0.92
Portadown
0.84
Dungannon Swifts
0.78
Coleraine FC is 0.15 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.58
Glentoran
0.70
Linfield
0.71
Coleraine FC
1.05
Crusaders FC
1.18
Cliftonville FC
1.40
Ballymena United
1.45
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.69
Carrick Rangers
1.95
Newry City AFC
1.95
Dungannon Swifts
2.15
Portadown
2.26
Coleraine FC is 0.47 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 0.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
1.13
0.53
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.56
1.22
0.67
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.17
1.00
0.20
0.40
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
0.05
1.20
0.10
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
87% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.44
0.67
0.33
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.58
0.67
0.33
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.40
0.93
0.13
1.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.80
1.00
0.20
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
0.20
0.90
0.10
1.60
0.30
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Coleraine FC and Larne have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Larne have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Larne have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Coleraine FC and Larne have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Glentoran
Linfield
Cliftonville FC
Crusaders FC
Glenavon FC
Carrick Rangers
Ballymena United
Dungannon Swifts
Newry City AFC
Portadown
Annagh United