Coleraine FC vs Larne Result & Analysis

Coleraine’s defensive record at home - just under a goal conceded per match - sets a low-scoring tone for the game, yet the model still favours a Larne victory. The probabilities are 28% for a Coleraine win, 32% for a draw and 40% for a Larne win, with the latter being the single most likely outcome. The expected total is 2.1 goals, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14.7%. Coleraine averages 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded against similar opposition, while Larne’s away form shows 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded. The model’s sole selection is Under 3.5, with an 83.7% chance of hitting. These figures paint a tight match where Larne’s slight edge in away form and the defensive solidity of both sides suggest a narrow win for the visitors.

The upset was clear: Coleraine FC turned the pre-match expectation on its head, winning 3-0 at home and ending the game with a two-goal margin that the model had not predicted. The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, came with a 40% probability, yet the result was a home victory, so the model’s call was wrong. The model’s other selection, Under 3.5 goals, was a hit, with an 83.7% chance. Coleraine’s recent form, a two-game winning streak, proved decisive, while Larne, after a defeat, could not recover. The final score of 3-0 matched the home side’s dominant performance.