Coleraine FC vs Larne Result & Analysis

The contest between Coleraine FC and Larne is a tight one, with the model pointing to a home win as the most likely outcome. The odds are almost even: a 36% chance for Coleraine, 31% for a draw and 33% for Larne. The average number of goals expected is 2.3, with the most probable total being two goals at a 28% probability. The single scoreline the model favours is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% chance. Coleraine’s home form shows they score about 1.56 goals per match and concede only 0.67 against teams of similar strength, while Larne, on the road, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded to comparable opponents. The model’s only suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.1% probability. These figures paint a picture of a closely matched game where the home side edges ahead in the probabilities, but the score could very well settle on a 1-1 draw.

Coleraine FC’s 2-game winning run was halted by a goalless draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite - the model’s Home win at 36% - on the wrong side of the result. The match finished 0-0, confirming the actual outcome of a draw. The model’s selection of Under 3.5, with an 80.1% probability, proved accurate, hitting as expected. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, while the 0-0 result matched the 28% chance of a scoreless tie. With Coleraine’s recent form showing a win-win-draw-win-lose streak and Larne coming off a defeat, the outcome was a clear upset of the model’s forecast.