Coleraine FC vs Larne Result & Analysis

Coleraine FC face Larne with the model favouring an away win, a 51% chance against a 20% home win and a 29% draw. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly open game, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 28% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 0-1 for Larne, with a 13.6% chance. Coleraine’s home form shows they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.89 conceded against similar opposition, while Larne’s away record is 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded, indicating a tighter defence for the visitors. Suggested picks include an 80.1% probability that the match will see Under 3.5 goals, a selection the model has already hit. This match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with Larne’s defensive solidity giving them the edge.

In a surprising turn, the match ended 0-0, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - the model’s pick for an away win - disappointed. The prediction had given the away side a 51% chance of triumph, but the result was a stalemate, so the model’s call was wrong. The model also suggested Under 3.5 goals with an 80.1% probability, and that hit. Coleraine were on a two-game winning run, while Larne were coming off a defeat. The most likely scoreline was 0-1, but the game settled at 0-0, keeping the total goals below the expected 2.3. The outcome was a clear upset of the forecast.