The match is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win but the odds are close: 33% for a Coleraine victory, 26% for a draw and 41% for Linfield. The expected total is three goals, yet the most likely total is two, a 1-1 scoreline being the single most probable outcome at 12.1%. Linfield’s away form shows a stark contrast: they average zero goals scored and concede two against similar opposition, while Coleraine’s home numbers are 3.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include an 81.8% chance of Over 1.5, a pick that carries an edge. Recent form offers a narrative: Coleraine are on a two-game winning run after a 3-0 win over Portadown, whereas Linfield are on a three-game winning streak, having beaten Limavady United 2-0. The single most likely scoreline remains 1-1, with no other scoreline mentioned. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, is the only selection beyond the match result, with its probability stated.
Results analysis
A shock draw settled the match, with a 0-0 result that left the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win, disappointed. The model had given Linfield a 41% chance of triumph, yet the game finished level. The suggested pick for Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.8% probability, missed as no goals were scored. Coleraine, on a two-game winning run, and Linfield, on a three-game winning run, both failed to break the deadlock. The final score of 0-0 confirmed the draw, proving the model’s prediction wrong and the over-goals selection a miss.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Coleraine FC win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Linfield win✗ Miss
40.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Coleraine FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.12
1.12
2.00
1.33
2.20
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
2.00
0.80
3.00
1.00
1.75
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.67
1.50
1.50
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Linfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.50
1.20
0.40
1.33
2.11
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.83
4.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.6%
Under 2.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.2%
Under 3.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-2
6.2%
0-0 ✓
5.9%
1-0
5.7%
Coleraine FC goals ↓
Linfield goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.6%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
1
5.7%
12%
8.9%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.9%
6.3%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.3%
3.8%
3.0%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Coleraine FC goals (down), columns = Linfield goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Linfield
2.03
Glentoran
2.00
Cliftonville FC
1.77
Crusaders FC
1.76
Coleraine FC
1.59
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.33
Carrick Rangers
1.05
Ballymena United
1.03
Dungannon Swifts
0.82
Newry City AFC
0.71
Portadown
0.68
Coleraine FC is 0.44 points worse than Linfield in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glentoran
2.10
Linfield
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.89
Cliftonville FC
1.70
Larne
1.68
Coleraine FC
1.54
Glenavon FC
1.49
Carrick Rangers
1.18
Annagh United
1.00
Ballymena United
0.97
Newry City AFC
0.92
Portadown
0.84
Dungannon Swifts
0.78
Coleraine FC is 0.44 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 1.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.58
Glentoran
0.70
Linfield
0.71
Coleraine FC
1.05
Crusaders FC
1.18
Cliftonville FC
1.40
Ballymena United
1.45
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.69
Carrick Rangers
1.95
Newry City AFC
1.95
Dungannon Swifts
2.15
Portadown
2.26
Coleraine FC is 0.34 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.33
1.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
0.20
2.00
0.00
1.25
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Linfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.64
0.20
0.20
0.67
0.89
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
64% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Coleraine FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Linfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
0.86
1.00
0.20
0.67
1.22
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Coleraine FC and Linfield have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Linfield have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Coleraine FC and Linfield have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Coleraine FC and Linfield have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Larne
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Crusaders FC
Glenavon FC
Carrick Rangers
Ballymena United
Dungannon Swifts
Newry City AFC
Portadown
Annagh United