The encounter between Colwyn Bay and Barry Town is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. Colwyn Bay’s recent form shows a win after a draw, while Barry Town come off a five-game winning streak, suggesting a closely matched contest. The model assigns a 40% chance to a Colwyn Bay victory, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 32% chance of a Barry Town win. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.2% chance.
Colwyn Bay, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 3.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Barry Town, on the road, averages 0.92 goals scored and 0.85 conceded versus similar opponents. The model’s selections include an 77.3% probability that the match will see over 1.5 goals, and a 70.2% probability that the total will be under 3.5 goals. These are the only selections offered.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Barry Town, riding a five-game winning streak, edged Colwyn Bay 1-0. The pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win pick, was wrong; the model’s confidence was 40%. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away victory. The model’s suggested picks were mixed: Over 1.5, with a 77.3% probability, missed, while Under 3.5, at 70.2%, hit. Colwyn Bay had just won their last game 2-0, extending a mixed run, whereas Barry Town had been on a perfect run of wins. The match finished with an away win, proving the model’s prediction of a home triumph was incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Colwyn Bay win✗ Miss
40.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barry Town win✓ Hit
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Colwyn Bay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
1.10
2.65
1.35
2.15
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
2.71
0.86
3.20
1.10
2.27
0.64
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
1.75
2.17
1.83
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.30
2.87
1.67
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
4.00
2.00
6.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.92
1.08
3.00
1.33
0.92
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.8%
Under 3.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
7.6%
0-1 ✓
7.0%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
5.7%
Colwyn Bay goals ↓
Barry Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
7.0%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.2%
13%
7.7%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.9%
8.8%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.4%
4.3%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Colwyn Bay goals (down), columns = Barry Town goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
Colwyn Bay is 0.22 points worse than Barry Town in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
Colwyn Bay is 0.06 goals worse than Barry Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
Colwyn Bay is 0.38 goals worse than Barry Town in terms of goals conceded per game (2.06 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Colwyn Bay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.35
0.71
1.08
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.19
0.33
1.30
0.40
1.09
0.27
vs Weaker (8)
1.50
1.25
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
1.33
0.73
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.48
1.50
0.67
0.46
0.31
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Colwyn Bay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.29
0.65
1.08
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.52
0.52
1.90
0.70
1.18
0.36
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.77
1.53
0.93
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
3.50
2.00
5.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.60
1.50
0.67
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Barry Town have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Barry Town have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Barry Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Barry Town have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
Bala Town
Caernarfon Town
Newtown AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Cardiff MET
Pontypridd Town
Aberystwyth Town