The contest between Colwyn Bay and GAP Connah S Quay FC feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win. The odds sit at 32 % for a Colwyn Bay victory, 29 % for a draw, and 39 % for the visitors to lift the trophy. An average of 2.6 goals is expected, with the most likely total of two goals (26 % probability). The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.7 % chance.
Colwyn Bay, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Their opponents’ away side, GAP Connah S Quay FC, averages 2.08 goals scored and only 0.85 conceded on the road. The visitors are on a three-game winning streak, having beaten Ammanford AFC 2-0, while Colwyn Bay has just secured a 1-0 win over Airbus UK.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3 %), Under 5.5 (95.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9 %), Under 4.5 (87.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (87.1 %) and Away +2 handicap (85.7 %). These picks reflect a strong confidence that the match will stay low-scoring and favour the visitors.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Colwyn Bay win
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC win
37.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Colwyn Bay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
2.00
1.36
1.19
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.50
2.30
1.70
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.67
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.03
2.50
1.14
2.06
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
2.22
1.04
2.20
1.30
2.23
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.50
4.50
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
8.9%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.0%
Colwyn Bay goals ↓
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
8.9%
6.7%
2.9%
1.0%
1
8.4%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.0%
7.9%
5.2%
2.3%
0.7%
3
2.5%
3.3%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Colwyn Bay goals (down), columns = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Colwyn Bay is 0.83 points worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Colwyn Bay is 1.50 goals worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Colwyn Bay is 1.00 goals worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Colwyn Bay or Draw
63.0%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Colwyn Bay + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay or GAP Connah S Quay FC
70.8%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Colwyn Bay + GAP Connah S Quay FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or GAP Connah S Quay FC
66.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Draw + GAP Connah S Quay FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5
Over
73.0%
Under
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Colwyn Bay, so a minus line means Colwyn Bay give that many goals of a start and GAP Connah S Quay FC receive them. At -1, Colwyn Bay must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Colwyn Bay win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Colwyn Bay)
Colwyn Bay -2
5.1%
Draw -2
10.0%
GAP Connah S Quay FC +2
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Colwyn Bay)
Colwyn Bay -1
15.1%
Draw -1
18.7%
GAP Connah S Quay FC +1
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Colwyn Bay)
Colwyn Bay +1
63.0%
Draw +1
19.8%
GAP Connah S Quay FC -1
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Colwyn Bay)
Colwyn Bay +2
82.8%
Draw +2
11.1%
GAP Connah S Quay FC -2
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Colwyn Bay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.14
0.50
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
1.20
0.70
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.37
1.14
0.29
1.06
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
0.39
1.00
0.40
1.23
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.3%
Under 0.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.4%
Under 1.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.8%
Under 2.5
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Colwyn Bay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.86
0.86
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.95
1.10
1.00
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.36
0.86
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.65
1.20
0.90
1.00
0.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.9%
Under 0.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.1%
Under 1.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.2%
Under 2.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.8%
Under
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell