Colwyn Bay are favoured to win, with a 46% chance of taking the points, a 30% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of Haverfordwest County winning. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at 14%. Colwyn Bay, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 2.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded, while Haverfordwest County, on the road, average 1.06 scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (97.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.3%), Under 4.5 (91.7%) and Home +2 handicap (91.4%). Colwyn Bay have just come off a 1-5 loss to The New Saints, while Haverfordwest County are still recovering from five consecutive defeats, a 0-2 loss to Llandudno. This context suggests a cautious, low-scoring affair where Colwyn Bay’s home form should give them the edge.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Colwyn Bay win
47.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC win
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Colwyn Bay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
2.00
1.36
1.19
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.50
2.30
1.70
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.67
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haverfordwest County AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.30
1.71
1.21
1.00
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.23
1.82
1.09
1.07
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.4%
Under 1.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.6%
Under 2.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.1%
No
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
13.2%
0-0
11.6%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
4.7%
Colwyn Bay goals ↓
Haverfordwest County AFC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.8%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
8.8%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.7%
4.1%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Colwyn Bay goals (down), columns = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Colwyn Bay is 1.17 points better than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Colwyn Bay is 1.00 goals better than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Colwyn Bay is 0.33 goals better than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Colwyn Bay or Draw
77.7%
Avg Implied -
48%
30%
22%
covers Colwyn Bay + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay or Haverfordwest County AFC
70.1%
Avg Implied -
48%
30%
22%
covers Colwyn Bay + Haverfordwest County AFC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Haverfordwest County AFC
52.2%
Avg Implied -
48%
30%
22%
covers Draw + Haverfordwest County AFC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Colwyn Bay, so a minus line means Colwyn Bay give that many goals of a start and Haverfordwest County AFC receive them. At -1, Colwyn Bay must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Colwyn Bay win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Colwyn Bay)
Colwyn Bay -2
9.0%
Draw -2
14.8%
Haverfordwest County AFC +2
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Colwyn Bay)
Colwyn Bay -1
23.8%
Draw -1
23.9%
Haverfordwest County AFC +1
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Colwyn Bay)
Colwyn Bay +1
77.7%
Draw +1
14.6%
Haverfordwest County AFC -1
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Colwyn Bay)
Colwyn Bay +2
92.2%
Draw +2
5.8%
Haverfordwest County AFC -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Colwyn Bay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.14
0.50
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
1.20
0.70
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haverfordwest County AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.19
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.58
0.64
0.55
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Colwyn Bay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.86
0.86
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.95
1.10
1.00
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haverfordwest County AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.21
0.64
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.65
1.18
0.55
0.87
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell