Colwyn Bay’s recent loss to The New Saints has left them rattled, yet the Pythia model still favours a home win with a 55% probability, a draw at 23% and an away win at 22%. The expected total goals is 3.2, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.7% chance. Colwyn Bay’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and concede none against weaker opposition, while Llandudno, playing away against a stronger side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2% (edge 8%), Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0% (edge 7%), Away under 3.5 goals at 96.5% (edge 7%), Under 6.5 at 95.4% (edge 4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.2% (edge 3%), Home under 1.5 HT goals at 91.1% (edge 9%), and Home +2 handicap at 90.9% (edge 8%).
Results analysis
Colwyn Bay’s recent run, highlighted by a win over Llandudno, set the stage for a home victory that the model predicted with a 56% probability. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the favoured outcome, and the model’s pick was correct. Every suggested selection turned out true: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.7%, Under 6.5 at 95.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.2%, Home +2 handicap at 91.5%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 91.1%. The match delivered on the model’s predictions, with all selections settled in favour of the home side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Colwyn Bay win✓ Hit
56.3%
Avg Implied 42.1% · @ 2.14
Edge
+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.18
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.30
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.42
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Llandudno win✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 2.96
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.10
William Hil
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
1xBet
3.04
Betfair
3.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Colwyn Bay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.43
1.86
1.36
1.19
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.61
1.43
2.09
1.55
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llandudno
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
0.97
3.40
0.67
1.73
1.27
vs Stronger (18)
2.67
0.78
3.60
0.60
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (9)
2.44
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
@ 1.21+9.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
@ 3.62-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Under
Unibet
3.90
Betano
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.0%
@ 1.73+9.6%
Under 2.5
37.0%
@ 1.98-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Under
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.05
SBO
2.05
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.8%
@ 2.72+7.3%
Under 3.5
59.2%
@ 1.37-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.89
10Bet
2.85
1xBet
2.78
Marathonbet
2.78
Under
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.7%
@ 1.58+3.8%
No
38.3%
@ 2.17-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.65
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.59
No
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Superbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%@ 6.09+3.2%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.95+4.2%
2-0 ✓
8.2%@ 10.51+4.0%
1-0
7.0%@ 8.07+1.6%
3-1
6.7%@ 15.15+3.8%
2-2
5.8%@ 11.37+2.0%
1-2
5.7%@ 9.76+1.2%
3-0
5.6%@ 19.49+3.4%
Colwyn Bay goals ↓
Llandudno goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
3.7%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.0%
10%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.6%
6.7%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.9%
3.4%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Colwyn Bay goals (down), columns = Llandudno goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Colwyn Bay is 0.33 points worse than Llandudno in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Colwyn Bay is 0.83 goals worse than Llandudno in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Colwyn Bay is 0.50 goals worse than Llandudno in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Colwyn Bay or Draw✓ Hit
79.3%
Avg Implied 68.9% · @ 1.32
Edge
+10.4%
56%
23%
21%
covers Colwyn Bay + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Colwyn Bay or Llandudno✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.23
Edge
+3.2%
56%
23%
21%
covers Colwyn Bay + Llandudno
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Draw or Llandudno✗ Miss
43.7%
Avg Implied 57.4% · @ 1.59
Edge
-13.6%
56%
23%
21%
covers Draw + Llandudno
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.67
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.62
William Hil
1.62
10Bet
1.62
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.2%
@ 1.19+10.0%
Under
12.8%
@ 4.03-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.10
1xBet
3.98
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
60.9%
@ 1.98+14.3%
Under
39.1%
@ 1.73-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Under
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
33.8%
@ 3.98+10.7%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.19-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Colwyn Bay over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 8.33+4.1%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.05-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Bet365
8.00
Betano
7.70
Under
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Llandudno over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
69.7%
@ 1.29-1.3%
Under
30.3%
@ 3.17+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Under
Betano
3.35
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
1xBet
3.08
Llandudno over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.5%
@ 2.42-4.7%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.49+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
10Bet
2.38
Under
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Llandudno over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 5.36-5.2%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.11+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Llandudno over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 10.12-5.9%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.50
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Colwyn Bay, so a minus line means Colwyn Bay give that many goals of a start and Llandudno receive them. At -1, Colwyn Bay must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Colwyn Bay win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Colwyn Bay)Actual: Draw
Colwyn Bay -2
17.2%
@ 7.65+5.6%
Draw -2
17.3%
@ 6.03+2.6%
Llandudno +2
65.5%
@ 1.20-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.80
Bet365
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Colwyn Bay)Actual: Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay -1
34.5%
@ 3.88+12.3%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.74-1.4%
Llandudno +1
43.7%
@ 1.58-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
3.90
Bet365
3.60
Unibet
3.50
Draw
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.35
Away
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.57
Unibet
1.49
Handicap +1 (Colwyn Bay)Actual: Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay +1
79.3%
@ 1.29+13.8%
Draw +1
12.2%
@ 4.43-6.9%
Llandudno -1
8.5%
@ 5.48-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.60
Unibet
3.70
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Unibet
4.50
Handicap +2 (Colwyn Bay)Actual: Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay +2
91.5%
@ 1.10+11.5%
Draw +2
5.8%
@ 7.45-6.0%
Llandudno -2
2.6%
@ 10.78-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
6.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Colwyn Bay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
1.07
0.50
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.52
1.09
0.64
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llandudno
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.30
1.27
0.47
1.00
0.13
vs Stronger (18)
0.94
0.28
1.40
0.40
0.38
0.12
vs Similar (9)
1.56
0.33
0.75
0.75
2.20
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.8%
@ 1.32+3.5%
Under 0.5
27.2%
@ 2.98-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.01
Betfair
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.3%
@ 2.46+0.3%
Under 1.5
62.7%
@ 1.45-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.63
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Unibet
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.4%
@ 5.42-3.4%
Under 2.5
86.6%
@ 1.09+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.00
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.1%
@ 1.86-9.7%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.84+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Under
Superbet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 5.20-8.7%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.11+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 10.00-8.4%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.02+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Llandudno over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
58.1%
@ 2.11+14.4%
Under
41.9%
@ 1.64-14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Under
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Llandudno over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.9%
@ 6.50+8.7%
Under
77.1%
@ 1.07-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.85
Marathonbet
6.85
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Llandudno over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 10.75-2.8%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Colwyn Bay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.79
0.86
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.91
1.00
0.91
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llandudno
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.67
2.13
0.20
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (18)
1.72
0.50
2.20
0.20
1.12
0.88
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.75
0.25
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
3.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.9%
@ 1.19+4.6%
Under 0.5
18.1%
@ 4.05-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.20
Superbet
3.90
William Hil
3.90
Marathonbet
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.3%
@ 1.92+0.2%
Under 1.5
51.7%
@ 1.78-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
10Bet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Under
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.1%
@ 3.81-4.0%
Under 2.5
79.9%
@ 1.21+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.94
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.0%
@ 1.58-13.3%
Under
55.0%
@ 2.22+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.61
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 3.78-12.2%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.22+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 9.65-6.6%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.50
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Llandudno over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
62.5%
@ 1.77+10.4%
Under
37.5%
@ 1.93-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Superbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.02
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
Llandudno over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.5%
@ 4.85+5.4%
Under
75.5%
@ 1.15-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.10
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Llandudno over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 9.00-0.4%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.03+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.04
BetVictor
1.01
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.1%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.8%
1.22
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
87.2%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
84.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.5%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.21
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.3%
1.32
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
79.3%
1.29
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
-
-
+13.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.2%
1.11
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
77.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-8.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.0%
1.23
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.5%
1.15
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.8%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+3.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Llandudno have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Llandudno have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Llandudno have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Llandudno have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell