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Colwyn Bay vs Penybont Result & Analysis

Date: 03/02/2024
Time: 14:30
Final 1-2
Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay
Vs
26%
23%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Colwyn Bay win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penybont win✓ Hit
51.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Colwyn BayColwyn Bay

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-616L05L30W21W23L24L23L12L01L23LA·THE31/10A·HAV04/11A·PON19/11H·PEN25/11H·GAP29/11A·NEW02/12H·BAL26/12A·CAE31/12A·ABE05/01H·PON13/01
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.771.751.811.291.71
vs Stronger (2)0.503.500.001.001.006.00
vs Similar (19)1.631.421.891.781.401.10
vs Weaker (9)1.562.111.832.001.002.33
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L42W11D12L11D02L03L30W10W01LH·ABE27/10A·CAE04/11H·NEW19/11A·COL25/11A·BAR28/11H·BAL02/12A·THE16/12A·CAR26/12H·PON31/12H·GAP13/01
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.431.071.471.531.40
vs Stronger (5)0.802.601.333.330.001.50
vs Similar (23)1.431.171.090.911.751.42
vs Weaker (2)1.001.500.002.002.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.5%
Under 2.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.9%
Under 3.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
1-2 ✓
9.3%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
2-1
6.4%
1-3
6.3%
0-1
5.4%
2-3
4.5%
Colwyn Bay goals ↓
Penybont goals →
01234
04.0%5.4%6.5%4.5%2.3%
13.5%9.9%9.3%6.3%3.3%
23.1%6.4%6.6%4.5%2.3%
31.5%3.1%3.1%2.1%1.1%
40.5%1.1%1.1%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Colwyn Bay goals (down), columns = Penybont goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
Colwyn Bay is 0.75 points worse than Penybont in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 1.53).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
Colwyn Bay is 0.47 goals worse than Penybont in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.53).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
Colwyn Bay is 0.89 goals worse than Penybont in terms of goals conceded per game (2.06 vs 1.18).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Colwyn BayColwyn Bay

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L10W01L11D21W02L00D00D01LA·THE31/10A·HAV04/11A·PON19/11H·PEN25/11H·GAP29/11A·NEW02/12H·BAL26/12A·CAE31/12A·ABE05/01H·PON13/01
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.810.810.640.57
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (19)0.580.530.670.560.500.50
vs Weaker (9)1.111.111.171.331.000.67
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W00D10W01L02L01L20W10W00DH·ABE27/10A·CAE04/11H·NEW19/11A·COL25/11A·BAR28/11H·BAL02/12A·THE16/12A·CAR26/12H·PON31/12H·GAP13/01
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.630.400.600.530.67
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.331.000.000.50
vs Similar (23)0.570.570.450.360.670.75
vs Weaker (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Colwyn BayColwyn Bay

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L02L20W20W12L03L21W12L01L22DA·THE31/10A·HAV04/11A·PON19/11H·PEN25/11H·GAP29/11A·NEW02/12H·BAL26/12A·CAE31/12A·ABE05/01H·PON13/01
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.070.941.000.641.14
vs Stronger (2)0.003.000.001.000.005.00
vs Similar (19)1.050.891.221.220.900.60
vs Weaker (9)0.441.000.670.670.001.67
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D22D11D02L10W00D02L10W00D01LH·ABE27/10A·CAE04/11H·NEW19/11A·COL25/11A·BAR28/11H·BAL02/12A·THE16/12A·CAR26/12H·PON31/12H·GAP13/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.800.670.871.000.73
vs Stronger (5)0.601.801.002.330.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.870.610.640.551.080.67
vs Weaker (2)1.000.500.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Penybont have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Penybont have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Penybont have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Colwyn Bay and Penybont have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
CB wins
0
Draws
0
PEN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Colwyn Bay vs Penybont · H/A from CB
DateH/AGameScore
25/11/23HCB Vs Penybont2-1
09/09/23APenybont Vs CB0-1

Colwyn BayColwyn Bay

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/01/24HCB Vs Pontypridd Town2-3
05/01/24AAberystwyth Town Vs CB1-0
31/12/23ACaernarfon Town Vs CB2-1
26/12/23HCB Vs Bala Town2-3
02/12/23ANewtown AFC Vs CB4-2
29/11/23HCB Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC2-3
25/11/23HCB Vs Penybont2-1
19/11/23APontypridd Town Vs CB0-3
04/11/23AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs CB5-0
31/10/23AThe New Saints Vs CB6-1

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/01/24HPEN Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-1
31/12/23HPEN Vs Pontypridd Town1-0
26/12/23ACardiff MET Vs PEN0-3
16/12/23AThe New Saints Vs PEN3-0
02/12/23HPEN Vs Bala Town0-2
28/11/23ABarry Town Vs PEN1-1
25/11/23AColwyn Bay Vs PEN2-1
19/11/23HPEN Vs Newtown AFC1-1
04/11/23ACaernarfon Town Vs PEN2-4
27/10/23HPEN Vs Aberystwyth Town0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.86
HomeLWLLL1.81
AwayLWLLL1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%58%62%
AVG goals3.803.883.71
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %74%77%71%
Over 3.5 %52%62%42%
Scored2.402.502.29
Conceded1.401.381.42
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet32%31%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.52
HomeLDLWL1.48
AwayWLDLW1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%40%40%
AVG goals2.542.602.48
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %46%40%52%
Over 3.5 %24%28%20%
Scored1.401.361.44
Conceded1.141.241.04
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet36%28%44%
Corners8.507.0010.00
Cards7.003.0011.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3292
94%
2.9
11718+99
4.2
81%
72%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.70.6
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3259
56%
1.8
7043+27
3.5
84%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.3
-
3PenybontPenybont3452
44%
1.5
5240+12
2.7
71%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.51.2
-
4Bala TownBala Town3251
41%
1.6
3831+7
2.2
59%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.0
-
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3447
38%
1.4
5771-14
3.8
91%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.72.1
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3344
39%
1.3
4951-2
3.0
79%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
7Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3243
34%
1.3
3940-1
2.5
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8Cardiff METCardiff MET3339
30%
1.2
3565-30
3.0
79%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.0
-
9Barry TownBarry Town3232
22%
1.0
3654-18
2.8
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
10Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3231
25%
1.0
2341-18
2.0
56%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3227
22%
0.8
2757-30
2.6
69%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3225
22%
0.8
3466-32
3.1
72%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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