Concordia is expected to win this match against FC Politehnica Timisoara, with a predicted average of 2.6 goals. The home side has been in good form, scoring 2 goals on average at home against weaker opponents, while conceding just 1. In contrast, FC Politehnica Timisoara has struggled away from home, scoring 0.7 goals on average against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.4.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.2%. The expected total goals is 2, which is the most likely total number of goals. Concordia's home win percentage is 50%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 22%. The model's selection for the match result is a Home win.
The model also suggests an Under 3.5 goal selection with a probability of 74.4%, and an Over 1.5 goal selection with a probability of 73.8%.
The upset was stark: Concordia, the pre-match favourite with a 50 % chance, fell to a 1-5 defeat, an outcome the model had not predicted. The final score of 1-5 confirmed an away win, overturning the home win pick. The model’s call was wrong. The match saw a barrage of model selections: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals missed at 98.9 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals missed at 98.2 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.7 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.2 %, and Under 5.5 missed at 95.4 %. Concordia’s recent form, a five-game run of LWWWW, ended after a loss to Politehnica, while the visitors rode a four-game winning streak, finishing 5-1.
Concordia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.03 | 1.62 | 1.12 | 1.43 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.29 | 0.96 | 1.50 | 0.92 | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.75 | 1.25 | 2.67 | 1.67 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
FC Politehnica Timisoara| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.94 | 1.41 | 1.08 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.00 | 1.43 | 0.94 | 1.44 | 1.08 | 1.42 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Politehnica Timisoara goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.6% | 9.5% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Concordia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.42 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
FC Politehnica Timisoara| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.50 | 0.41 | 0.47 | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.36 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Concordia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 1.07 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.88 | 0.42 | 1.00 | 0.42 | 0.75 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
FC Politehnica Timisoara| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.90 | 0.53 | 0.94 | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.64 | 0.93 | 0.56 | 0.94 | 0.75 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 98.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 6.5 | 98.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 98.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 97.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 96.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 96.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 95.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 92.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 92.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home +2 handicap | 91.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 89.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 89.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 4.5 | 88.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 86.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 80.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 77.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home +1 handicap | 77.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 76.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 74.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/22 | A | 1-4 |
Concordia| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
FC Politehnica Timisoara| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 12/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/08/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 13/08/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 06/08/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 14/08/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 07/08/24 | A | 3-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |