The match between Concordia and Metalul Buzău is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities show a 38 % chance of Metalul Buzău triumphing, 35 % for Concordia and 28 % for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most probable total being two goals, a 25 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, occurring with a 13.2 % probability.
Concordia, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Metalul Buzău, on the road, scores 1.57 and concedes 1.14 against similar opposition. Both sides have recently lost their opening matches, but each has shown resilience in subsequent games.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.4 %), Under 5.5 (93.8 %), Under 4.5 (85.2 %), Home under 2.5 goals (84.5 %) and Away +2 handicap (83.9 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Concordia win
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău win
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Concordia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.20
1.60
1.40
1.73
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.46
1.17
1.45
1.27
1.46
1.08
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.25
2.67
1.67
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalul Buzău) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalul Buzău
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.23
1.93
1.36
1.75
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.43
1.11
1.67
1.79
1.29
vs Weaker (7)
2.86
0.57
3.40
0.80
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Concordia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
7.7%
0-0
7.5%
1-0
7.3%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
5.8%
Concordia goals ↓
Metalul Buzău goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.7%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
1
7.3%
13%
8.5%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.7%
8.1%
5.8%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.6%
3.6%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Concordia goals (down), columns = Metalul Buzău goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
Concordia is 1.00 points better than Metalul Buzău in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
Concordia is 1.20 goals better than Metalul Buzău in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
Concordia is 0.40 goals worse than Metalul Buzău in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Concordia or Draw
62.3%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
38%
covers Concordia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Concordia or Metalul Buzău
72.2%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
38%
covers Concordia + Metalul Buzău
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Metalul Buzău
65.5%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
38%
covers Draw + Metalul Buzău
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Concordia over/under 0.5
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Concordia over/under 1.5
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Concordia over/under 2.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Concordia over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Concordia, so a minus line means Concordia give that many goals of a start and Metalul Buzău receive them. At -1, Concordia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Concordia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Concordia)
Concordia -2
5.7%
Draw -2
10.4%
Metalul Buzău +2
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Concordia)
Concordia -1
16.1%
Draw -1
18.4%
Metalul Buzău +1
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Concordia)
Concordia +1
62.3%
Draw +1
19.4%
Metalul Buzău -1
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Concordia)
Concordia +2
81.8%
Draw +2
11.5%
Metalul Buzău -2
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Concordia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.60
0.73
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.62
0.45
0.73
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalul Buzău) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalul Buzău
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
0.71
0.64
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.83
0.56
0.89
1.07
0.79
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Concordia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Concordia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Concordia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Concordia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Concordia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.13
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.54
1.00
0.55
0.85
0.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
1.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalul Buzău) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalul Buzău
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.21
0.71
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.61
0.56
0.78
0.71
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.43
2.40
0.60
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Concordia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Concordia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Concordia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Concordia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (37)
€11m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
ATM (22)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
FB (23)
€2m
VŞ (19)
€2m
GB (20)
€2m
CSM (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
CDB (14)
€1m
ŞTE (8)
€1m
CRV (10)
€1m
POP (9)
€1m
Concordia's squad is €2m more valuable than Metalul Buzău's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (13)
€5m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
ATM (7)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
GB (8)
€1m
FB (8)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CRV (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
CSM (7)
€0m
CDB (3)
€0m
POP (3)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
ŞTE (2)
€0m
Concordia's attack is €1m more valuable than Metalul Buzău's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
FB (6)
€1m
ATM (4)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
GB (5)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
ŞTE (3)
€0m
CSM (4)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CDB (4)
€0m
CRV (1)
€0m
Concordia's midfield is €1m more valuable than Metalul Buzău's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (15)
€5m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
ATM (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
CSM (8)
€1m
FB (9)
€1m
CDB (7)
€1m
ŞTE (3)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
GB (7)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CRV (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (2)
€0m
Concordia and Metalul Buzău have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Politehnica Timisoara
Slatina
CSM Reşiţa
Chindia Targoviste
Popești-Leordeni
Gloria Bistriţa
FC Bacau
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
Cetatea Suceava
Metaloglobus
CS Afumati
Bihor Oradea
Ştefăneşti
Viitorul Şelimbăr
ASA Targu Mures
Dumbrăviţa
CS Dinamo București
CSM Satu Mare
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Unirea Slobozia
AFC Hermannstadt