The contest between Çorum FK and Bodrum FK is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 40%. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14% chance. Çorum’s home form shows an average of 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against similar opposition, while Bodrum’s away record yields 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded to comparable teams. The probability spread is 40% for a home victory, 29% for a draw, and 30% for an away win. Suggested selections include Over 2.5 cards at 83.5%, Under 25.5 fouls at 79.8%, Under 3.5 goals at 75.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 72.9%, and Over 1.5 goals at 72.8%. Both sides arrive on a shaky patch; Çorum has returned from a defeat to Kasımpaşa, while Bodrum follows a draw against Muğlaspor. The model’s pick remains a home win, with the 1-1 scoreline the most probable outcome.
Results analysis
The match at Çorum FK’s ground saw the home side’s recent form dip after a defeat, yet they managed a 1-0 win over Bodrum FK, extending their winning run. The model’s favourite was a Home win at 40%, and it proved correct. The final score of 1-0 matched the actual result, confirming the home advantage. The model’s selections delivered a mixed bag: Over 2.5 cards hit at 83.5%, Under 3.5 hit at 75.4%, while Under 25.5 fouls, Under 11.5 corners and Over 1.5 missed at 79.8%, 72.9% and 72.8% respectively. The predicted total of 2.5 goals fell short of the 1-0 outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Çorum FK win✓ Hit
40.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Çorum FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.20
1.80
1.07
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
1.62
1.17
1.67
0.43
1.57
vs Weaker (17)
2.06
0.88
2.22
0.67
1.88
1.12
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bodrum FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.13
1.33
1.00
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.24
1.23
1.15
1.25
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.25
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.0%
Under 2.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0 ✓
9.7%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.1%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.4%
Çorum FK goals ↓
Bodrum FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
8.1%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.7%
14%
7.3%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.5%
8.6%
5.0%
1.9%
0.6%
3
3.4%
3.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Çorum FK goals (down), columns = Bodrum FK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.13
Amed
1.95
Çorum FK
1.90
Esenler Erokspor
1.90
Bodrum FK
1.71
Pendikspor
1.62
Bandırmaspor
1.58
Keçiörengücü
1.54
Manisa F.K.
1.45
İstanbulspor
1.37
Sarıyer
1.37
Sivasspor
1.35
Iğdır FK
1.32
Vanspor FK
1.29
Boluspor
1.26
Ümraniyespor
1.21
Serik Spor
1.03
Sakaryaspor
0.92
Hatayspor
0.37
Adana Demirspor
0.16
Çorum FK is 0.20 points better than Bodrum FK in terms of average points per game (1.90 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.16
Amed
2.13
Esenler Erokspor
2.08
Keçiörengücü
1.87
Bodrum FK
1.80
Boluspor
1.61
Çorum FK
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.50
İstanbulspor
1.50
Pendikspor
1.49
Vanspor FK
1.37
Iğdır FK
1.37
Ümraniyespor
1.24
Bandırmaspor
1.24
Sakaryaspor
1.22
Sivasspor
1.19
Serik Spor
1.16
Sarıyer
1.16
Hatayspor
0.87
Adana Demirspor
0.58
Çorum FK is 0.21 goals worse than Bodrum FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Erzurumspor FK
0.71
Bandırmaspor
0.89
Pendikspor
0.90
Esenler Erokspor
0.95
Çorum FK
0.95
Bodrum FK
0.98
Amed
1.11
Keçiörengücü
1.13
Sarıyer
1.16
Sivasspor
1.16
Vanspor FK
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.34
Iğdır FK
1.42
İstanbulspor
1.45
Manisa F.K.
1.47
Boluspor
1.50
Sakaryaspor
1.86
Serik Spor
1.97
Hatayspor
2.68
Adana Demirspor
4.45
Çorum FK is 0.02 goals better than Bodrum FK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 0.98).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Çorum FK
59%
Esenler Erokspor
58%
Boluspor
57%
Iğdır FK
56%
Erzurumspor FK
56%
Vanspor FK
55%
Amed
53%
Pendikspor
52%
Sivasspor
50%
Bodrum FK
49%
İstanbulspor
48%
Sarıyer
48%
Keçiörengücü
48%
Ümraniyespor
47%
Sakaryaspor
47%
Hatayspor
46%
Manisa F.K.
46%
Bandırmaspor
45%
Serik Spor
41%
Adana Demirspor
38%
Çorum FK is 10.0 percentage points better than Bodrum FK in terms of average possession (59% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Çorum FK
For 6.3 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 8.9 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bodrum FK
For 4.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Çorum FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.7
8.4
4.7
4.6
4.8
22.6
21.1
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
9.6
9.3
9.9
5.7
6.2
5.2
21.6
18.7
23.8
vs Weaker (33)
8.7
9.8
7.6
4.2
3.8
4.5
23.1
22.1
24.1
% over line
46%
61%
32%
70%
60%
80%
58%
48%
68%
% under line
54%
39%
68%
30%
40%
20%
42%
52%
32%
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bodrum FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.0
9.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
24.0
25.0
22.7
vs Stronger (3)
9.5
9.5
-
1.0
1.5
0.0
24.5
24.5
-
vs Similar (38)
8.6
7.8
9.4
3.4
3.5
3.3
24.7
26.1
23.1
vs Weaker (9)
8.9
8.0
9.8
4.0
3.8
4.2
20.9
20.8
21.0
% over line
37%
26%
50%
48%
48%
48%
72%
78%
65%
% under line
63%
74%
50%
52%
52%
52%
28%
22%
35%
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sivasspor
9.5
Bandırmaspor
9.3
Iğdır FK
9.2
Adana Demirspor
9.1
Çorum FK
9.0
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Amed
9.0
Bodrum FK
8.9
Serik Spor
8.9
Hatayspor
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.7
Sakaryaspor
8.6
Esenler Erokspor
8.6
Erzurumspor FK
8.6
Pendikspor
8.5
İstanbulspor
8.4
Vanspor FK
8.4
Keçiörengücü
8.3
Boluspor
8.2
Sarıyer
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sakaryaspor
5.2
Vanspor FK
5.2
Pendikspor
5.2
Boluspor
5.1
Erzurumspor FK
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Amed
5.1
Çorum FK
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Hatayspor
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.9
Keçiörengücü
4.9
Manisa F.K.
4.8
Bandırmaspor
4.7
İstanbulspor
4.6
Ümraniyespor
4.5
Serik Spor
4.4
Bodrum FK
4.0
Adana Demirspor
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Vanspor FK
28.3
Pendikspor
26.6
Boluspor
25.8
Sakaryaspor
25.4
Erzurumspor FK
24.1
Bodrum FK
24.0
Keçiörengücü
23.8
Hatayspor
23.7
Bandırmaspor
23.5
Manisa F.K.
23.4
Serik Spor
23.4
İstanbulspor
23.3
Sarıyer
23.3
Sivasspor
23.3
Ümraniyespor
23.2
Iğdır FK
23.2
Esenler Erokspor
22.7
Çorum FK
22.6
Amed
22.2
Adana Demirspor
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.6%
Under 9.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.1%
Under 3.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.0%
Under 21.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Çorum FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.85
0.67
1.17
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bodrum FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.48
0.62
0.62
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Çorum FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Çorum FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.13
0.40
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.77
0.50
0.50
0.29
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.41
1.56
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bodrum FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.67
0.47
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.76
0.62
0.54
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Çorum FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (35)
€18m
IF (38)
€14m
EF (29)
€13m
MF (27)
€12m
SIV (25)
€11m
AME (26)
€11m
İST (37)
€11m
ÇF (32)
€10m
SS (44)
€10m
VF (31)
€10m
EE (25)
€10m
PEN (23)
€9m
BAN (29)
€9m
HAT (38)
€8m
ÜMR (26)
€8m
BOL (28)
€8m
SAK (30)
€8m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
AD (30)
€3m
Çorum FK's squad is €7m less valuable than Bodrum FK's (€10m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (14)
€9m
ÇF (13)
€6m
SIV (7)
€5m
VF (13)
€5m
SAK (12)
€5m
AME (8)
€4m
IF (14)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (12)
€4m
EE (9)
€4m
BAN (10)
€4m
EF (10)
€4m
HAT (15)
€4m
ÜMR (6)
€3m
SS (16)
€3m
PEN (7)
€3m
BOL (8)
€3m
SAR (7)
€2m
KEÇ (8)
€2m
AD (11)
€1m
Çorum FK's attack is €3m less valuable than Bodrum FK's (€6m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€4m
EF (5)
€4m
BF (8)
€3m
AME (7)
€3m
VF (6)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (6)
€2m
PEN (6)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
HAT (8)
€2m
BOL (8)
€2m
SS (10)
€2m
İST (8)
€2m
BAN (5)
€2m
SAK (6)
€2m
KEÇ (6)
€1m
ÇF (5)
€1m
EE (5)
€1m
SAR (4)
€1m
AD (5)
€0m
Çorum FK's midfield is €2m less valuable than Bodrum FK's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (13)
€6m
IF (15)
€5m
SS (18)
€5m
EF (14)
€5m
İST (17)
€5m
MF (10)
€5m
EE (11)
€5m
SIV (12)
€4m
AME (11)
€4m
BOL (12)
€3m
PEN (10)
€3m
ÇF (14)
€3m
ÜMR (13)
€3m
BAN (14)
€3m
HAT (15)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
VF (12)
€2m
SAK (12)
€2m
AD (14)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
Çorum FK's defence is €2m less valuable than Bodrum FK's (€3m vs €6m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
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Erzurumspor FK
Esenler Erokspor
Amed
Pendikspor
Keçiörengücü
Bandırmaspor
Manisa F.K.
İstanbulspor
Sarıyer
Sivasspor
Iğdır FK
Vanspor FK
Boluspor
Ümraniyespor
Serik Spor
Sakaryaspor
Hatayspor
Adana Demirspor