This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.20
1.00
0.87
0.87
1.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (17)
0.76
1.00
0.67
0.56
0.88
1.50
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
1.25
1.50
1.33
1.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosenza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.0%
@ 2.20+0.3%
Under 2.5
57.0%
@ 1.64-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.3%
No
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
11.8%
0-0
10.3%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.5%
Cosenza goals ↓
Spezia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.5%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.0%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.0%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.5%
4.3%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cosenza goals (down), columns = Spezia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Cosenza is 0.08 points better than Spezia in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Cosenza is 0.29 goals better than Spezia in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Cosenza is 0.18 goals better than Spezia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Cosenza is 1.4 percentage points worse than Spezia in terms of average possession (49% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cosenza
For 5.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spezia
For 5.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 17.6 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cosenza
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.5
10.6
4.7
4.5
5.0
27.3
26.2
28.4
vs Stronger (28)
9.4
9.3
9.5
5.1
4.9
5.4
28.0
26.6
29.3
vs Similar (22)
11.0
9.9
12.1
4.3
4.1
4.5
26.3
25.6
27.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
39%
67%
66%
68%
64%
81%
83%
78%
% under line
47%
61%
33%
34%
32%
36%
19%
17%
22%
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.4
9.3
4.6
4.5
4.6
31.8
31.0
32.7
vs Stronger (8)
11.5
12.0
11.0
1.4
2.2
0.5
34.0
35.0
33.0
vs Similar (28)
10.1
10.6
9.7
5.0
4.8
5.2
31.2
30.5
31.9
vs Weaker (14)
9.2
10.0
8.3
5.4
5.1
5.8
32.5
31.1
34.0
% over line
61%
67%
56%
62%
60%
64%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
39%
33%
44%
38%
40%
36%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Cosenza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Venezia
10.4
Parma
10.2
Ternana
10.1
Brescia
10.0
Palermo
10.0
Cremonese
9.8
FeralpiSalo
9.8
Modena
9.7
Bari
9.7
Spezia
9.7
Cosenza
9.6
Lecco
9.6
Como
9.5
Ascoli
9.5
Reggiana
9.3
Catanzaro
9.2
Pisa
9.1
Cittadella
8.8
Sampdoria
8.6
Sudtirol
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.5
Pisa
6.2
Spezia
5.7
Modena
5.7
Ascoli
5.7
Bari
5.7
Sampdoria
5.7
Cittadella
5.6
Lecco
5.5
Sudtirol
5.4
Parma
5.4
Catanzaro
5.3
Reggiana
5.3
Palermo
5.2
Cremonese
5.2
Como
5.1
FeralpiSalo
5.1
Brescia
5.0
Ternana
4.9
Venezia
4.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ascoli
32.1
Cittadella
32.1
Sampdoria
30.2
Sudtirol
30.1
Spezia
29.8
Reggiana
29.6
Bari
29.3
Como
29.1
Catanzaro
28.9
Pisa
28.8
Palermo
28.8
Modena
28.7
Brescia
28.5
Lecco
27.9
Cremonese
27.4
Cosenza
27.3
Ternana
27.3
Parma
26.8
FeralpiSalo
26.8
Venezia
25.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.6%
Under 9.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.4%
Under 3.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.2%
Under 21.5
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cosenza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
0.56
0.67
0.78
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.33
0.83
0.17
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.53
0.47
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.41
0.33
0.22
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.50
0.83
0.83
0.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosenza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cosenza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosenza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosenza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cosenza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.67
0.73
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
0.61
0.78
0.67
0.22
0.56
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.67
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.47
0.40
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.59
0.33
0.33
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.75
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosenza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cosenza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosenza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosenza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cosenza
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gennaro Tutino46%
Alessandro Arioli25%
Gianluca Frabotta20%
Massimo Zilli17%
Simone Mazzocchi11%
Francesco Forte10%
Idriz Voca9%
Mirko Antonucci8%
Michael Venturi7%
Manuel Marras6%
Michele Camporese5%
Valerio Crespi5%
Luigi Canotto4%
Tommaso D'Orazio4%
Giacomo Calò3%
Christian D'Urso0%
Bright Gyamfi0%
Andrea Meroni0%
Mattia Viviani0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Andrea Rispoli0%
Alessandro Micai0%
Mateusz Praszelik0%
Aldo Florenzi0%
Baldovino Cimino0%
Pietro Martino0%
Federico Zuccon0%
Alessandro Fontanarosa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Michael Venturi50%
Tommaso D'Orazio44%
Mateusz Praszelik42%
Alessandro Fontanarosa33%
Aldo Florenzi29%
Mattia Viviani27%
Gianluca Frabotta27%
Michele Camporese26%
Alessandro Arioli25%
Federico Zuccon24%
Gennaro Tutino23%
Manuel Marras21%
Alessandro Micai19%
Giacomo Calò19%
Bright Gyamfi18%
Luigi Canotto17%
Idriz Voca15%
Simone Mazzocchi14%
Francesco Forte13%
Filippo Sgarbi12%
Baldovino Cimino12%
Pietro Martino10%
Andrea Meroni9%
Mirko Antonucci8%
Valerio Crespi5%
Christian D'Urso0%
Andrea Rispoli0%
Massimo Zilli0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian D'Urso33%
Giacomo Calò22%
Manuel Marras18%
Federico Zuccon10%
Bright Gyamfi9%
Simone Mazzocchi9%
Gennaro Tutino9%
Tommaso D'Orazio8%
Mirko Antonucci8%
Andrea Rispoli8%
Gianluca Frabotta7%
Baldovino Cimino6%
Idriz Voca6%
Aldo Florenzi4%
Francesco Forte3%
Andrea Meroni0%
Mattia Viviani0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Michele Camporese0%
Alessandro Micai0%
Luigi Canotto0%
Mateusz Praszelik0%
Michael Venturi0%
Alessandro Arioli0%
Massimo Zilli0%
Pietro Martino0%
Alessandro Fontanarosa0%
Valerio Crespi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gennaro Tutino31%
Simone Mazzocchi14%
Francesco Forte13%
Gianluca Frabotta7%
Valerio Crespi5%
Tommaso D'Orazio4%
Aldo Florenzi4%
Giacomo Calò3%
Manuel Marras3%
Christian D'Urso0%
Bright Gyamfi0%
Andrea Meroni0%
Mattia Viviani0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Mirko Antonucci0%
Andrea Rispoli0%
Michele Camporese0%
Alessandro Micai0%
Luigi Canotto0%
Mateusz Praszelik0%
Idriz Voca0%
Michael Venturi0%
Alessandro Arioli0%
Baldovino Cimino0%
Massimo Zilli0%
Pietro Martino0%
Federico Zuccon0%
Alessandro Fontanarosa0%
Spezia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giuseppe Di Serio30%
Arkadiusz Reca29%
Daniele Verde17%
Petko Hristov16%
Luca Moro12%
Iva Gelashvili11%
Francesco Pio Esposito8%
Filip Jagiełło8%
Rachid Kouda8%
Lukas Mühl7%
Nicolò Bertola6%
Luca Vignali6%
Aleš Matějů6%
Mirko Antonucci5%
Salvatore Elia3%
Salvatore Esposito3%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Albin Ekdal0%
Szymon Żurkowski0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ádám Nagy0%
Diego Falcinelli0%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Bartłomiej Drągowski0%
Dimitris Nikolaou0%
Francesco Cassata0%
João Moutinho0%
Raimonds Krollis0%
Pietro Calzolari0%
Tio Cipot0%
Gregorio Tanco0%
Niccolò Pietra0%
Pietro Candelari0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pietro Candelari50%
Niccolò Pietra40%
Francesco Cassata35%
Szymon Żurkowski31%
Rachid Kouda31%
Lukas Mühl29%
Dimitris Nikolaou26%
Nicolò Bertola25%
Luca Vignali24%
Aleš Matějů24%
Albin Ekdal22%
Iva Gelashvili22%
Salvatore Esposito22%
Kelvin Amian21%
Giuseppe Di Serio20%
Gregorio Tanco20%
Ádám Nagy19%
Diego Falcinelli19%
Filippo Bandinelli18%
Petko Hristov16%
Mirko Antonucci16%
Salvatore Elia16%
Bartłomiej Drągowski15%
Arkadiusz Reca14%
Luca Moro12%
Francesco Pio Esposito11%
Daniele Verde10%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
João Moutinho0%
Raimonds Krollis0%
Pietro Calzolari0%
Tio Cipot0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Salvatore Esposito14%
Diego Falcinelli12%
Giuseppe Di Serio10%
Filip Jagiełło8%
Rachid Kouda8%
Szymon Żurkowski6%
Salvatore Elia6%
Luca Vignali6%
Filippo Bandinelli3%
Dimitris Nikolaou3%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Albin Ekdal0%
Arkadiusz Reca0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Ádám Nagy0%
Bartłomiej Drągowski0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Aleš Matějů0%
Petko Hristov0%
Luca Moro0%
Mirko Antonucci0%
Daniele Verde0%
João Moutinho0%
Raimonds Krollis0%
Pietro Calzolari0%
Iva Gelashvili0%
Tio Cipot0%
Gregorio Tanco0%
Nicolò Bertola0%
Niccolò Pietra0%
Francesco Pio Esposito0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniele Verde28%
Rachid Kouda15%
Szymon Żurkowski12%
Diego Falcinelli12%
Francesco Pio Esposito11%
Giuseppe Di Serio10%
Luca Vignali6%
Petko Hristov5%
Mirko Antonucci5%
Luca Moro4%
Salvatore Esposito3%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Albin Ekdal0%
Arkadiusz Reca0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Ádám Nagy0%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Bartłomiej Drągowski0%
Dimitris Nikolaou0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Aleš Matějů0%
Salvatore Elia0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
João Moutinho0%
Raimonds Krollis0%
Pietro Calzolari0%
Iva Gelashvili0%
Tio Cipot0%
Gregorio Tanco0%
Nicolò Bertola0%
Niccolò Pietra0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →