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Cosmos vs Pennarossa Result & Analysis

Date: 29/04/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 3-0
Cosmos
Cosmos
Vs
57%
27%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Campionato
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Cosmos are heavily favoured to win against Pennarossa, with a predicted 57% chance of a home victory. The match is likely to be a low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.3 goals and the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-0, with a probability of 14.8%.

Cosmos have a strong home form, scoring 0.8 goals on average and conceding 0.6 against weaker opponents. Pennarossa, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring 0.75 goals and conceding 2.08 against stronger opponents.

The model's selection is the home win, but it also suggests taking Over 21.5 fouls (97.2%), Under 3.5 (80.0%), and Under 9.5 corners (79.4%). The probabilities for the match result are Home win 57%, Draw 27%, and Away win 15%.

Results analysis

The Cosmos' win extends their run of inconsistent form, following a draw and two wins, preceded by a defeat at the hands of Pennarossa. The 3-0 final score confirms the actual result of the home win, which was the model's selection with a pre-match probability of 57%. The model's call was correct, as the Cosmos were the favourites. The model suggested an Under 3.5 total goals, which hit with an 80% probability. The Under 3.5 total goals selection also came in, with the final score being 3-0.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cosmos win✓ Hit
57.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa win✗ Miss
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CosmosCosmos

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W30W01L01L21W00D01L13L20WA·TRE15/02H·SAN22/02A·MUR01/03H·FIO07/03A·LIB15/03H·CAI21/03A·FOL08/04H·PEN12/04A·LA 19/04H·FAE26/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.770.800.531.201.00
vs Stronger (2)0.502.000.001.001.003.00
vs Similar (6)0.671.171.000.330.332.00
vs Weaker (22)1.140.550.820.551.450.55
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L23L11D01L05L20W21W10W00D11DA·SAN14/02H·FOL21/02A·SAN01/03H·LIB07/03A·LA 14/03H·MUR21/03A·CAI07/04A·COS12/04H·JUV18/04A·TRE26/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.771.001.670.931.87
vs Stronger (24)0.792.040.832.000.752.08
vs Similar (6)1.670.671.670.331.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.3%
Under 2.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.0%
Under 3.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.5%
No
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.8%
2-0
12.7%
1-1
12.5%
0-0
11.2%
2-1
9.0%
3-0 ✓
6.7%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
4.8%
Cosmos goals ↓
Pennarossa goals →
01234
011%6.0%2.5%0.6%0.1%
115%12%4.0%0.9%0.2%
213%9.0%3.2%0.8%0.1%
36.7%4.8%1.7%0.4%0.1%
42.7%1.9%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cosmos goals (down), columns = Pennarossa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Cosmos is 0.39 points better than Pennarossa in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Cosmos is 0.06 goals better than Pennarossa in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Cosmos is 1.11 goals better than Pennarossa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.70 vs 1.81).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

CosmosCosmos

For 1.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 6.0

🚩 Corners

60156H·TRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 5.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 5.0

🟨 Cards

5055H·TRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 30.0

⚠️ Fouls

300161430H·TRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

PennarossaPennarossa

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

CosmosCosmos

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)6.06.0-0.10.20.030.030.0-
vs Stronger (5)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (11)6.06.0-0.51.00.030.030.0-
vs Weaker (34)---0.00.00.0---
% over line0%0%-2%4%0%100%100%-
% under line100%100%-98%96%100%0%0%-
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (39)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (11)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Fiori
8.4
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
6.8
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Tre Fiori
30.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
20.6%
Under 9.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.2%
Under 3.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.2%
Under 21.5
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CosmosCosmos

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W00D01L10W00D00D13L10WA·TRE15/02H·SAN22/02A·MUR01/03H·FIO07/03A·LIB15/03H·CAI21/03A·FOL08/04H·PEN12/04A·LA 19/04H·FAE26/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.330.330.130.530.53
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
vs Similar (6)0.330.670.670.000.001.33
vs Weaker (22)0.450.140.270.180.640.09
Clean sheet %77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L00D01L02L10W00D00D00D00DA·SAN14/02H·FOL21/02A·SAN01/03H·LIB07/03A·LA 14/03H·MUR21/03A·CAI07/04A·COS12/04H·JUV18/04A·TRE26/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.730.470.670.270.80
vs Stronger (24)0.290.830.420.750.170.92
vs Similar (6)0.670.330.670.330.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls99.0%--------
Over 21.5 fouls97.2%--------
Over 23.5 fouls93.6%--------
Under 11.5 corners93.0%--------
Under 10.5 corners87.6%--------
Over 25.5 fouls87.2%--------
Over 2.5 cards83.6%--------
Under 3.580.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 9.5 corners79.4%--------

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (31)
€1m
VIR (33)
€1m
LF (33)
€1m
TP (26)
€1m
FOL (28)
€1m
DOM (27)
€1m
FIO (25)
€1m
COS (34)
€1m
J/D (27)
€1m
PEN (31)
€1m
LIB (34)
€1m
SG (27)
€1m
FAE (32)
€1m
SMA (33)
€1m
CAI (28)
€0m
MUR (35)
€0m
Cosmos and Pennarossa have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAI (0)
€0m
COS (0)
€0m
DOM (0)
€0m
FAE (0)
€0m
FOL (0)
€0m
J/D (0)
€0m
LF (0)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
PEN (0)
€0m
SG (0)
€0m
SMA (0)
€0m
TF (0)
€0m
TP (0)
€0m
VIR (0)
€0m
FIO (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAI (0)
€0m
COS (0)
€0m
DOM (0)
€0m
FAE (0)
€0m
FOL (0)
€0m
J/D (0)
€0m
LF (0)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
PEN (0)
€0m
SG (0)
€0m
SMA (0)
€0m
TF (0)
€0m
TP (0)
€0m
VIR (0)
€0m
FIO (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAI (0)
€0m
COS (0)
€0m
DOM (0)
€0m
FAE (0)
€0m
FOL (0)
€0m
J/D (0)
€0m
LF (0)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
PEN (0)
€0m
SG (0)
€0m
SMA (0)
€0m
TF (0)
€0m
TP (0)
€0m
VIR (0)
€0m
FIO (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Cosmos vs Pennarossa · H/A from COS
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/26HCOS Vs Pennarossa0-1
14/12/25APennarossa Vs COS1-1
01/02/25APennarossa Vs COS2-3
28/09/24HCOS Vs Pennarossa4-0
12/03/24HCOS Vs Pennarossa6-2
02/12/23APennarossa Vs COS1-5
18/02/23APennarossa Vs COS0-4
09/10/22HCOS Vs Pennarossa1-0

CosmosCosmos

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/26HCOS Vs Faetano2-0
19/04/26ALa Fiorita Vs COS3-1
12/04/26HCOS Vs Pennarossa0-1
08/04/26AFolgore Vs COS0-0
21/03/26HCOS Vs Cailungo2-1
15/03/26ALibertas Vs COS1-0
07/03/26HCOS Vs Fiorentino0-1
01/03/26AMurata Vs COS0-3
22/02/26HCOS Vs San Marino Academy1-0
15/02/26ATre Penne Vs COS1-1

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/26ATre Fiori Vs PEN1-1
18/04/26HPEN Vs Juvenes / Dogana0-0
12/04/26ACosmos Vs PEN0-1
07/04/26ACailungo Vs PEN1-2
21/03/26HPEN Vs Murata2-0
14/03/26ALa Fiorita Vs PEN5-0
07/03/26HPEN Vs Libertas0-1
01/03/26ASan Marino Academy Vs PEN1-1
21/02/26HPEN Vs Folgore2-3
14/02/26ASan Giovanni Vs PEN3-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Cosmos
Cosmos
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.48
HomeWLWLW1.50
AwayDWLDL1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.122.042.21
Over 1.5 %60%50%71%
Over 2.5 %36%31%42%
Over 3.5 %20%19%21%
Scored1.201.151.25
Conceded0.920.880.96
BTTS34%35%33%
Clean Sheet42%42%42%
Corners6.006.00-
Cards5.005.00-
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDD0.88
HomeDLLWD0.92
AwayDLWWD0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%20%20%
AVG goals2.982.803.16
Over 1.5 %84%76%92%
Over 2.5 %62%52%72%
Over 3.5 %34%40%28%
Scored0.980.961.00
Conceded2.001.842.16
BTTS52%44%60%
Clean Sheet16%28%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VirtusVirtus3582
71%
2.3
8324+59
3.1
89%
60%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.40.7
-
2Tre PenneTre Penne3576
63%
2.2
7521+54
2.7
83%
46%
31%
10.0
100%
4.0
100%
34.0
100%
1
0002.10.6
60%
3Tre FioriTre Fiori3073
73%
2.4
6313+50
2.5
73%
50%
33%
6.0
0%
5.0
100%
30.0
100%
1
0002.10.4
64%
4La FioritaLa Fiorita3569
54%
2.0
7031+39
2.9
86%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.9
-
5FolgoreFolgore3260
53%
1.9
6936+33
3.3
88%
66%
38%
5.0
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.1
-
6DomagnanoDomagnano3555
46%
1.6
6644+22
3.1
80%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.3
-
7FiorentinoFiorentino3249
47%
1.5
4045-5
2.7
72%
50%
25%
10.0
100%
4.0
100%
34.0
100%
1
0001.21.4
40%
8CosmosCosmos3347
36%
1.4
3323+10
1.7
48%
30%
9%
6.0
0%
5.0
100%
30.0
100%
1
0001.00.7
36%
9Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana3339
27%
1.2
3741-4
2.4
70%
36%
24%
4.0
0%
5.0
100%
32.0
100%
1
0001.11.2
47%
10LibertasLibertas3136
29%
1.2
3364-31
3.1
77%
52%
39%
12.0
100%
3.0
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.1
49%
11PennarossaPennarossa3132
26%
1.0
2956-27
2.7
84%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.91.8
-
12San GiovanniSan Giovanni3031
23%
1.0
2443-19
2.2
77%
37%
17%
4.0
0%
5.0
100%
32.0
100%
1
0000.81.4
53%
13FaetanoFaetano3022
20%
0.7
2255-33
2.6
77%
47%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.71.8
-
14San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy3016
10%
0.5
2360-37
2.8
83%
47%
27%
12.0
100%
3.0
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
51%
15CailungoCailungo3011
7%
0.4
2371-48
3.1
87%
60%
30%
5.0
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.4
-
16MurataMurata307
3%
0.2
2083-63
3.4
97%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.8
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

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