Cosmos are tipped to win this San-Marino clash, with a 59% chance of triumph against a 14% chance for Pennarossa and a 26% draw probability. The model predicts an average of 2.4 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that is 27% likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Cosmos, carrying a 14.5% chance. Cosmos, playing at home against a weaker side, have averaged 1.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Pennarossa, on the road to a stronger opponent, average only 0.45 scored and 2.27 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 99.0%, Under 6.5 at 98.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.3%, Under 5.5 at 96.6%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.6%, and Home +2 handicap at 95.8%. Cosmos’ recent draw streak and Pennarossa’s recent loss set the tone for a tight, low-scoring encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cosmos win
61.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa win
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cosmos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
0.81
0.75
1.14
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
1.23
0.17
1.00
0.57
1.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.65
1.20
0.60
1.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pennarossa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.83
1.15
1.38
0.94
2.18
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
2.39
0.86
2.14
0.64
2.55
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.8%
Under 2.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.9%
No
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.1%
2-0
12.7%
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.9%
3-0
7.7%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
4.8%
Cosmos goals ↓
Pennarossa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
4.8%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
2
13%
9.5%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
7.7%
5.7%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
3.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cosmos goals (down), columns = Pennarossa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Cosmos is 0.39 points better than Pennarossa in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Cosmos is 0.06 goals better than Pennarossa in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Cosmos is 1.11 goals better than Pennarossa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.70 vs 1.81).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cosmos
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Pennarossa
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cosmos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
30.0
30.0
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.5
0.0
30.0
30.0
-
vs Weaker (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pennarossa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
20.8%
Under 9.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.1%
Under 3.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.3%
Under 21.5
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cosmos or Draw
86.2%
Avg Implied -
62%
24%
14%
covers Cosmos + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cosmos or Pennarossa
75.5%
Avg Implied -
62%
24%
14%
covers Cosmos + Pennarossa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pennarossa
38.3%
Avg Implied -
62%
24%
14%
covers Draw + Pennarossa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cosmos over/under 0.5
Over
83.6%
Under
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5
Over
27.1%
Under
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 3.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cosmos, so a minus line means Cosmos give that many goals of a start and Pennarossa receive them. At -1, Cosmos must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cosmos win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cosmos)
Cosmos -2
17.3%
Draw -2
19.5%
Pennarossa +2
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cosmos)
Cosmos -1
36.8%
Draw -1
24.9%
Pennarossa +1
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cosmos)
Cosmos +1
86.2%
Draw +1
9.6%
Pennarossa -1
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cosmos)
Cosmos +2
95.8%
Draw +2
3.3%
Pennarossa -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cosmos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.08
0.69
0.00
0.33
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.59
0.18
0.40
0.20
0.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pennarossa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.54
0.62
0.29
0.88
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
0.94
0.43
0.86
0.09
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.1%
Under 0.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.6%
Under 1.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.4%
Under
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cosmos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.54
0.17
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pennarossa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.07
0.62
0.77
0.65
1.29
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
1.44
0.43
1.29
0.55
1.55
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.50
0.83
0.17
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.2%
Under 0.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.3%
Under 1.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.7%
Under 2.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 2H
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.7%
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-
-
-
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Over 1.5
73.3%
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-
-
-
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Over 0.5 HT goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Home under 2.5 goals
72.9%
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-
-
-
-
-
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Under 5.5 cards
71.0%
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-
-
-
-
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Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
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-
-
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Cosmos and Pennarossa have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Cosmos and Pennarossa have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Cosmos and Pennarossa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Cosmos and Pennarossa have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Faetano
Murata