Cosmos are the clear favourite, the model rating them at 75% reflects their dominant home form - averaging 3.33 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded against weaker opposition - while San Giovanni struggle on the road, conceding 2.4 and scoring only 0.6 against stronger teams. The predicted outcome is a home win, with a 75% chance, a draw at 16% and an away win at 8%. The expected total is 3.3 goals, centring on a 3-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Cosmos, with a 11.6% probability. The model’s selections include an 85.4% chance of over 1.5 goals and a 75.2% chance of a Cosmos victory. The Cosmos’ recent unbeaten run in their last five, including a 1-1 draw with Libertas, underpins their confidence, while San Giovanni’s recent three-game losing streak and a 2-3 loss to Tre Penne highlight their vulnerability away.
Results analysis
The Cosmos, unbeaten in their last five, were the pre-match favourite to win, yet the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised everyone. The model had picked a home win with a 75.2% probability, but that call was wrong. The suggested Over 1.5, with an 85.4% chance, also missed, as no goals were scored. Cosmos’ form at home against weaker opposition had them scoring an average of 3.33 goals and conceding only 0.33, while San Giovanni, playing away against stronger teams, averaged 0.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. The final score of 0-0 matched the model’s 3.3 expected total but fell short of the most likely 3-goal outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cosmos win✗ Miss
75.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni win✗ Miss
8.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cosmos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.47
2.62
0.50
1.71
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.54
0.62
1.71
0.71
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
2.71
0.35
3.33
0.33
2.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.87
1.00
1.88
1.07
1.86
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
2.18
0.50
2.00
0.60
2.40
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.88
1.12
2.00
1.12
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.0%
Under 2.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 3.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.6%
3-0
9.9%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.3%
1-1
7.8%
3-1
7.8%
4-0
6.4%
4-1
5.0%
Cosmos goals ↓
San Giovanni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
2.0%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
1
8.3%
7.8%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
9.1%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.9%
7.8%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
6.4%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cosmos goals (down), columns = San Giovanni goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Virtus
2.63
La Fiorita
2.49
Tre Penne
1.97
Murata
1.91
Cosmos
1.86
Tre Fiori
1.81
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
San Giovanni
1.50
Folgore
1.30
Fiorentino
1.23
Domagnano
1.13
Faetano
0.87
Libertas
0.77
San Marino Academy
0.73
Cailungo
0.47
Pennarossa
0.27
Cosmos is 0.36 points better than San Giovanni in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.37
Tre Penne
2.37
La Fiorita
2.17
Virtus
2.03
Tre Fiori
1.78
San Giovanni
1.78
Murata
1.77
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
Faetano
1.47
Folgore
1.39
Fiorentino
1.29
San Marino Academy
1.07
Libertas
1.07
Domagnano
1.06
Pennarossa
0.60
Cailungo
0.50
Cosmos is 0.59 goals better than San Giovanni in terms of goals scored per game (2.37 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.60
Virtus
0.67
Murata
0.74
Cosmos
0.94
Tre Fiori
1.00
Tre Penne
1.03
Folgore
1.15
San Giovanni
1.44
Domagnano
1.45
Juvenes / Dogana
1.64
Fiorentino
1.84
Libertas
1.87
San Marino Academy
2.47
Cailungo
2.57
Faetano
2.63
Pennarossa
3.20
Cosmos is 0.49 goals better than San Giovanni in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cosmos
For 3.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
San Giovanni
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cosmos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (37)
10.0
16.0
4.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
10.0
16.0
4.0
0.6
0.9
0.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
3%
5%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
0%
100%
97%
95%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cosmos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.17
1.56
0.19
0.79
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.23
1.29
0.29
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (17)
1.35
0.12
1.78
0.11
0.88
0.12
Clean sheet %
83% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.38
1.06
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.18
0.00
1.33
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cosmos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.30
1.06
0.31
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.43
0.43
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
1.35
0.24
1.56
0.22
1.12
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.62
0.81
0.64
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.88
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
La Fiorita
Virtus
Tre Penne
Murata
Tre Fiori
Juvenes / Dogana
Folgore
Fiorentino
Domagnano
Faetano
Libertas
San Marino Academy
Cailungo
Pennarossa