The contest between Cosmos and San Giovanni is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home advantage is modest, Cosmos have scored 1.88 and conceded 1.25 against weaker sides, while San Giovanni, playing away against stronger opponents, average 1.67 goals for and 2.0 against. The expected total is 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 23% chance. The single score the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11.8% probability. Home win probability sits at 36%, a draw at 26%, and an away win at 38%. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 82.9% chance of hitting. The match is finely balanced, and while Cosmos have been unbeaten in their last five, San Giovanni’s recent three defeats add uncertainty. The predicted outcome remains an away victory.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Cosmos overturned the pre-match favourite, San Giovanni, to win 4-2. The model had tipped an away win with a 38% chance, but that call was wrong. Cosmos, unbeaten in their last five, continued their run with a strong home performance, while San Giovanni, after three straight defeats, struggled away. The model’s single other suggestion, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 82.9% probability, fitting the 6-goal tally. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 missed, as did the 1-2 and 2-1 possibilities. Overall, the model’s predictions were only partially correct, missing the decisive outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cosmos win✓ Hit
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cosmos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
1.47
1.33
1.80
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.50
1.21
1.00
1.43
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.75
1.25
1.88
1.25
1.62
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.37
1.53
1.33
2.13
1.40
vs Stronger (13)
1.31
1.77
1.00
1.57
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (14)
2.07
1.14
1.67
1.17
2.38
1.12
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.67
3.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.4%
Under 2.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.5%
No
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
5.9%
1-0
5.7%
0-2
5.5%
0-0
5.5%
Cosmos goals ↓
San Giovanni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.9%
5.5%
2.9%
1.1%
1
5.7%
12%
8.5%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.3%
8.3%
6.5%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.7%
4.3%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.0%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cosmos goals (down), columns = San Giovanni goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Virtus
2.57
La Fiorita
2.40
Tre Fiori
1.89
Folgore
1.69
Cosmos
1.69
Tre Penne
1.56
San Giovanni
1.54
Fiorentino
1.39
Murata
1.26
Faetano
1.03
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.87
Cailungo
0.77
Pennarossa
0.57
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cosmos is 0.14 points better than San Giovanni in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
La Fiorita
2.26
Virtus
2.20
Tre Fiori
1.97
Cosmos
1.91
San Giovanni
1.83
Tre Penne
1.53
Folgore
1.31
Cailungo
1.17
Murata
1.06
Fiorentino
1.06
Faetano
1.03
San Marino Academy
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.97
Pennarossa
0.87
Juvenes / Dogana
0.81
Cosmos is 0.09 goals better than San Giovanni in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.57
Virtus
0.60
Tre Fiori
0.91
Folgore
1.03
Tre Penne
1.09
Murata
1.10
Cosmos
1.11
Juvenes / Dogana
1.16
Fiorentino
1.21
San Giovanni
1.29
Domagnano
1.47
Faetano
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cailungo
2.20
San Marino Academy
2.27
Pennarossa
2.53
Cosmos is 0.17 goals better than San Giovanni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cosmos
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
San Giovanni
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cosmos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cosmos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.40
0.60
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.79
0.29
0.86
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.62
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.92
0.57
0.71
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.29
0.67
0.17
1.38
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cosmos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.07
0.73
1.07
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.43
0.71
0.57
1.14
0.29
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.75
1.38
0.88
1.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.83
0.93
0.93
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.85
0.43
0.86
1.33
0.83
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.86
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.67
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
La Fiorita
Virtus
Tre Fiori
Folgore
Tre Penne
Fiorentino
Murata
Faetano
Juvenes / Dogana
Domagnano
Libertas
Cailungo
Pennarossa
San Marino Academy