Cosmos are set to defend their home ground against San Giovanni in a tight, low-scoring encounter. The model favours a Cosmos victory, with a 52% chance of a win, a 32% draw probability, and a 15% chance of a San Giovanni win. The expected total goals hover at 1.8, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Cosmos, a 19.4% probability. Cosmos have been prolific at home against weaker opposition, averaging 1.09 goals scored and conceding only 0.64. San Giovanni, playing away against a stronger side, have struggled, scoring just 0.4 goals and conceding 2.0 on average. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Under 5.5 (98.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.1%), Under 4.5 (96.3%), Home +2 handicap (96.2%), and Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%). Cosmos remain unbeaten in their last five matches, while San Giovanni have endured three straight defeats.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cosmos win
52.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni win
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cosmos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
0.81
0.75
1.14
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
1.23
0.17
1.00
0.57
1.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.65
1.20
0.60
1.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
1.00
1.53
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.25
0.43
2.43
0.40
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.93
1.50
0.83
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.2%
Under 1.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.1%
Under 2.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.6%
Under 3.5
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
32.4%
No
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
19.1%
0-0
17.0%
2-0
12.9%
1-1
12.6%
0-1
7.8%
2-1
7.3%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
3.2%
Cosmos goals ↓
San Giovanni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
7.8%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
1
19%
13%
3.2%
0.6%
0.1%
2
13%
7.3%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
3
5.5%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.8%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cosmos goals (down), columns = San Giovanni goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Cosmos is 0.75 points worse than San Giovanni in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Cosmos is 0.25 goals worse than San Giovanni in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Cosmos is 1.25 goals worse than San Giovanni in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cosmos or Draw
84.6%
Avg Implied -
53%
32%
15%
covers Cosmos + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cosmos or San Giovanni
68.2%
Avg Implied -
53%
32%
15%
covers Cosmos + San Giovanni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or San Giovanni
47.2%
Avg Implied -
53%
32%
15%
covers Draw + San Giovanni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cosmos over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cosmos, so a minus line means Cosmos give that many goals of a start and San Giovanni receive them. At -1, Cosmos must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cosmos win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cosmos)
Cosmos -2
9.2%
Draw -2
16.3%
San Giovanni +2
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cosmos)
Cosmos -1
25.5%
Draw -1
27.3%
San Giovanni +1
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cosmos)
Cosmos +1
84.6%
Draw +1
11.5%
San Giovanni -1
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cosmos)
Cosmos +2
96.1%
Draw +2
3.2%
San Giovanni -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cosmos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.08
0.69
0.00
0.33
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.59
0.18
0.40
0.20
0.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cosmos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.54
0.17
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Giovanni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.25
0.29
1.43
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Cosmos and San Giovanni have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →