Defensive solidity will dominate the forecast, as both sides have conceded over a goal per game against similar opposition. The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance of Tre Fiori triumphing, 32% for a draw and 26% for Cosmos to lift the trophy. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14.5%. Cosmos, at home, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.14 conceded, while Tre Fiori, on the road, manages only 0.25 goals but lets in 1.12. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5% miss), Home under 2.5 goals (93.7%), Under 4.5 (93.6%) and Over 2.5 cards (91.3%). Cosmos entered the fixture after a draw against Tre Penne, while Tre Fiori returned from a 0-5 loss to Drita, setting the stage for a tightly contested, low-scoring encounter.
Results analysis
The Cosmos’ recent draw streak was halted as Tre Fiori continued their winning run, finishing 0-4 in the Coppa Titano. The model had picked an away win with a 42% probability, and the outcome matched that forecast. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, 0-0 or 0-1 was eclipsed by a decisive 4-goal margin. Every suggested selection was addressed: Under 7.5 (99.8%) hit, Under 6.5 (99.4%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%) hit, Under 5.5 (97.9%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%) missed, Home under 2.5 goals (93.7%) hit, and Under 4.5 (93.6%) hit. The model’s predictions largely came through, confirming its accuracy for this match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cosmos win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori win✓ Hit
42.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cosmos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.93
1.31
1.12
1.50
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.00
1.00
1.14
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.61
0.89
1.56
1.11
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.87
1.85
0.85
1.24
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
1.18
0.67
1.33
0.25
1.12
vs Weaker (19)
2.16
0.68
2.20
0.70
2.11
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.9%
Under 1.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.6%
Under 2.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.6%
Under 3.5
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.2%
No
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
13.3%
0-1
13.3%
1-0
9.5%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
4.9%
Cosmos goals ↓
Tre Fiori goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
13%
8.9%
3.6%
1.1%
1
9.5%
15%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
4.9%
6.0%
3.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
1.5%
1.8%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cosmos goals (down), columns = Tre Fiori goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Penne
3.00
Virtus
2.43
La Fiorita
1.75
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Fiori
1.43
San Giovanni
1.25
Faetano
1.00
Folgore
1.00
Cosmos
0.50
Murata
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Cailungo
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
Cosmos is 0.93 points worse than Tre Fiori in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Penne
2.67
Tre Fiori
1.57
Virtus
1.57
San Giovanni
1.00
La Fiorita
1.00
Cosmos
1.00
Faetano
0.75
Folgore
0.75
Juvenes / Dogana
0.75
Cailungo
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Murata
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
Cosmos is 0.57 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.25
Virtus
0.43
Tre Penne
0.50
Murata
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Folgore
1.00
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Pennarossa
1.00
Cosmos
1.50
Fiorentino
1.50
San Giovanni
1.75
Faetano
1.75
Libertas
2.50
Cailungo
5.00
Cosmos is 0.79 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cosmos or Draw✗ Miss
57.9%
Avg Implied -
26%
32%
42%
covers Cosmos + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cosmos or Tre Fiori✓ Hit
68.1%
Avg Implied -
26%
32%
42%
covers Cosmos + Tre Fiori
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tre Fiori✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied -
26%
32%
42%
covers Draw + Tre Fiori
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cosmos over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
59.5%
Under
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cosmos, so a minus line means Cosmos give that many goals of a start and Tre Fiori receive them. At -1, Cosmos must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cosmos win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cosmos)Actual: Tre Fiori
Cosmos -2
2.4%
Draw -2
6.9%
Tre Fiori +2
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cosmos)Actual: Tre Fiori
Cosmos -1
9.4%
Draw -1
16.7%
Tre Fiori +1
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cosmos)Actual: Tre Fiori
Cosmos +1
57.9%
Draw +1
22.9%
Tre Fiori -1
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cosmos)Actual: Tre Fiori
Cosmos +2
80.9%
Draw +2
12.6%
Tre Fiori -2
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cosmos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.50
0.69
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.58
0.43
0.57
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.61
0.50
0.56
0.78
0.67
0.22
Clean sheet %
63% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.15
0.23
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.09
0.73
0.00
0.67
0.12
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.21
0.16
1.50
0.10
0.89
0.22
Clean sheet %
73% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cosmos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
0.81
0.44
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.42
0.57
0.57
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.69
0.62
0.71
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.45
0.67
0.67
0.12
0.38
vs Weaker (19)
0.95
0.53
0.70
0.60
1.22
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (31)
€1m
VIR (33)
€1m
LF (33)
€1m
TP (26)
€1m
FOL (28)
€1m
DOM (27)
€1m
FIO (25)
€1m
COS (34)
€1m
J/D (27)
€1m
PEN (31)
€1m
LIB (34)
€1m
SG (27)
€1m
FAE (32)
€1m
CAI (28)
€0m
MUR (35)
€0m
Cosmos and Tre Fiori have a similar squad value (both €1m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →