Cove Rangers are tipped to win, a 49% chance versus a 28% draw and 23% for East Kilbride. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.3% chance. Cove Rangers, playing at home against a similarly-rated side, average 1.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. East Kilbride, on the road against a similar opponent, average 1.86 scored and 2.43 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.9%), Home +2 handicap (91.2%) and Under 4.5 (88.2%). Cove Rangers have just returned from a loss to Hamilton Academical, while East Kilbride are still recovering from a 0-4 defeat to Ross County, setting the stage for a cautious, low-scoring encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cove Rangers win
49.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride win
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cove Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.21
1.00
1.19
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.54
1.25
1.17
1.50
1.92
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.57
2.73
1.40
1.73
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.00
2.09
2.25
1.50
1.86
2.43
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
1.26
2.91
1.36
1.62
1.12
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
Cove Rangers goals ↓
East Kilbride goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
6.5%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.4%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.9%
4.9%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cove Rangers goals (down), columns = East Kilbride goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Cove Rangers is 0.22 points worse than East Kilbride in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Cove Rangers is 0.22 goals worse than East Kilbride in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Cove Rangers is 0.22 goals better than East Kilbride in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cove Rangers
For 4.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
East Kilbride
For 4.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cove Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.8
10.2
2.2
2.7
1.7
21.1
21.3
21.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.5
9.3
9.7
1.9
2.2
1.8
21.3
20.4
22.0
vs Weaker (10)
9.4
7.0
11.8
3.1
5.5
1.5
20.8
24.0
17.5
% over line
50%
38%
61%
28%
43%
15%
47%
38%
56%
% under line
50%
62%
39%
72%
57%
85%
53%
62%
44%
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.4
10.1
3.7
3.6
3.8
26.2
24.6
27.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
8.2
7.3
9.0
1.4
1.9
1.0
22.5
23.0
22.0
vs Weaker (31)
10.6
11.0
10.3
5.1
4.4
6.1
27.0
24.9
29.0
% over line
56%
53%
59%
56%
52%
60%
79%
76%
82%
% under line
44%
47%
41%
44%
48%
40%
21%
24%
18%
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.9%
Under 9.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.5%
Under 3.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.6%
Under 21.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cove Rangers or Draw
76.8%
Avg Implied -
49%
28%
23%
covers Cove Rangers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers or East Kilbride
72.2%
Avg Implied -
49%
28%
23%
covers Cove Rangers + East Kilbride
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or East Kilbride
51.0%
Avg Implied -
49%
28%
23%
covers Draw + East Kilbride
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cove Rangers, so a minus line means Cove Rangers give that many goals of a start and East Kilbride receive them. At -1, Cove Rangers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cove Rangers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cove Rangers)
Cove Rangers -2
10.7%
Draw -2
15.3%
East Kilbride +2
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cove Rangers)
Cove Rangers -1
26.0%
Draw -1
23.0%
East Kilbride +1
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cove Rangers)
Cove Rangers +1
76.8%
Draw +1
14.4%
East Kilbride -1
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cove Rangers)
Cove Rangers +2
91.2%
Draw +2
6.4%
East Kilbride -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cove Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.25
0.58
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.47
0.60
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
0.63
1.73
0.55
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cove Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.93
0.50
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.58
0.83
1.42
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.93
1.27
0.80
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.45
1.50
0.75
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.63
1.18
0.82
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Cove Rangers and East Kilbride have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Cove Rangers and East Kilbride have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Cove Rangers and East Kilbride have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Airdrie United
Queen of the South