Hamilton Academical are tipped to win this encounter, with a 61% chance of triumph, while the home side has only a 14% chance of victory and a 25% chance of a draw. The match is expected to see about 2.4 goals on average, with the most probable total being two goals at a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, giving the away side a 14.1% chance of that exact result.
Cove Rangers, playing at home against a weaker opponent, average one goal scored and none conceded, yet they are coming off a defeat and have lost three of their last five. Hamilton, on the other hand, have been unbeaten in their last five away games, scoring two goals per match and conceding 1.33 against stronger teams.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (96.5%), Under 5.5 (96.3%), Away +2 handicap (95.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.4%), and Under 4.5 (90.0%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cove Rangers win
14.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical win
60.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cove Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.21
1.00
1.19
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.54
1.25
1.17
1.50
1.92
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamilton Academical
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.27
1.40
1.33
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (17)
1.06
1.24
1.38
1.12
0.78
1.33
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
1.17
2.00
1.67
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.9%
Under 1.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.8%
No
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.1%
0-2
13.0%
1-1
11.8%
0-0
9.9%
1-2
9.2%
0-3
7.5%
1-3
5.3%
1-0
5.2%
Cove Rangers goals ↓
Hamilton Academical goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
14%
13%
7.5%
3.2%
1
5.2%
12%
9.2%
5.3%
2.3%
2
2.2%
3.8%
3.3%
1.9%
0.8%
3
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cove Rangers goals (down), columns = Hamilton Academical goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Cove Rangers is 1.44 points worse than Hamilton Academical in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Cove Rangers is 1.36 goals worse than Hamilton Academical in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Cove Rangers is 0.28 goals better than Hamilton Academical in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cove Rangers
For 4.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamilton Academical
For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 7.5 · Total 16.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cove Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.8
10.4
2.0
2.6
1.5
21.0
21.3
20.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.7
9.3
10.0
1.8
2.0
1.5
21.1
20.4
21.8
vs Weaker (10)
9.4
7.0
11.8
3.1
5.5
1.5
20.8
24.0
17.5
% over line
53%
38%
69%
26%
42%
12%
44%
38%
50%
% under line
47%
62%
31%
74%
58%
88%
56%
62%
50%
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamilton Academical
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
12.0
9.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
16.0
23.0
9.0
vs Stronger (12)
9.0
-
9.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
9.0
-
9.0
vs Similar (32)
12.0
12.0
-
0.2
0.1
0.3
23.0
23.0
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
2%
0%
4%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
50%
0%
100%
98%
100%
96%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.2%
Under 9.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
58.2%
Under 21.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cove Rangers or Draw
39.5%
Avg Implied -
14%
25%
61%
covers Cove Rangers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers or Hamilton Academical
74.5%
Avg Implied -
14%
25%
61%
covers Cove Rangers + Hamilton Academical
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hamilton Academical
86.0%
Avg Implied -
14%
25%
61%
covers Draw + Hamilton Academical
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
50.9%
Under
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5
Over
82.1%
Under
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cove Rangers, so a minus line means Cove Rangers give that many goals of a start and Hamilton Academical receive them. At -1, Cove Rangers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cove Rangers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cove Rangers)
Cove Rangers -2
0.8%
Draw -2
3.3%
Hamilton Academical +2
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cove Rangers)
Cove Rangers -1
4.1%
Draw -1
9.9%
Hamilton Academical +1
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cove Rangers)
Cove Rangers +1
39.5%
Draw +1
25.4%
Hamilton Academical -1
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cove Rangers)
Cove Rangers +2
64.9%
Draw +2
19.2%
Hamilton Academical -2
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cove Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.25
0.58
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamilton Academical
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.35
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cove Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.93
0.50
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.58
0.83
1.42
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamilton Academical
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.88
0.88
0.62
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Cove Rangers and Hamilton Academical have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Cove Rangers and Hamilton Academical have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Cove Rangers and Hamilton Academical have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Cove Rangers and Hamilton Academical have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Airdrie United
Queen of the South