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Cowdenbeath vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Date: 07/08/2021
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Vs
26%
28%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Cowdenbeath win✓ Hit
26.2%
Avg Implied 34.8% · @ 2.64
Edge
-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.44
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
45.6%
Avg Implied 38.5% · @ 2.39
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L10W00D15L00D20W02L11D20W02LA·STE08/04H·ELG10/04A·ALB13/04H·STI17/04A·BRE20/04A·STE24/04H·BRE27/04A·ANN01/05H·ALB04/05A·KEL31/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.530.931.790.621.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.791.501.001.000.572.00
vs Weaker (16)0.751.560.862.570.670.78
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W01L02L25L00D41W31W02L32W11DH·STR06/04A·COW10/04A·STE13/04H·ALB17/04A·QUE20/04A·STR27/04H·STI29/04A·EDI01/05H·QUE04/05H·STR31/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.232.201.271.471.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.861.502.711.711.001.29
vs Weaker (16)1.811.001.750.881.881.12
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.79-4.3%
Under 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.96+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
10.0%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.7%
0-2
8.5%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
Cowdenbeath goals ↓
Elgin goals →
01234
08.7%10%8.5%4.3%1.6%
16.9%13%9.2%4.6%1.7%
24.4%6.7%5.0%2.5%0.9%
31.6%2.4%1.8%0.9%0.3%
40.4%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cowdenbeath goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Cowdenbeath is 0.22 points worse than Elgin in terms of average points per game (0.81 vs 1.03).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Cowdenbeath is 0.14 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 0.92).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Cowdenbeath is 0.06 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.42).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

For 5.1 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.9

ðŸšĐ Corners

160541767838881354858379813111698121310A·KELH·ALBA·ANNH·BREA·STEA·BREH·STIA·ALBH·ELGA·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

70322522131331211253274444335A·KELH·ALBA·ANNH·BREA·STEA·BREH·STIA·ALBH·ELGA·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.1 · Total 23.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

3101113101212148915166131011171281212924222617311921292021A·KELH·ALBA·ANNH·BREA·STEA·BREH·STIA·ALBH·ELGA·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

For 5.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.9

ðŸšĐ Corners

170393463248546858985631279613101317139H·STRH·QUEA·EDIH·STIA·STRA·QUEH·ALBA·STEA·COWH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.5

ðŸŸĻ Cards

6022121242222421424334420636H·STRH·QUEA·EDIH·STIA·STRA·QUEH·ALBA·STEA·COWH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 12.0 · Total 21.2

⚠ïļ Fouls

28014147115139101312412131071512881528181819251623222023H·STRH·QUEA·EDIH·STIA·STRA·QUEH·ALBA·STEA·COWH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.310.410.24.64.15.124.624.025.2
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (25)9.910.19.74.84.55.224.224.923.3
vs Weaker (25)10.710.710.74.43.84.925.022.927.0
% over line58%56%60%72%68%76%68%68%68%
% under line42%44%40%28%32%24%32%32%32%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.09.011.04.24.44.022.121.422.9
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (23)10.59.611.34.14.04.221.721.222.2
vs Weaker (27)9.68.610.74.34.73.922.521.623.5
% over line48%32%64%66%76%56%54%48%60%
% under line52%68%36%34%24%44%46%52%40%
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.5
Albion Rvs
10.4
Cowdenbeath
10.3
Elgin
10.0
Stenhousemuir
10.0
Stranraer
9.6
Annan Athletic
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.0
Forfar
8.4

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.6
Elgin
4.2
Stenhousemuir
4.1
Stirling
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.6
Stranraer
3.4
Albion Rvs
3.2
Forfar
3.1
Kelty Hearts
3.0

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.8
Cowdenbeath
24.6
Kelty Hearts
24.0
Stirling
23.6
Albion Rvs
22.7
Edinburgh City
22.2
Stranraer
22.2
Stenhousemuir
22.2
Elgin
22.1
Forfar
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.7%
Under 9.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.8%
Under 21.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D13L00D00D01L00D10W01LA·STE08/04H·ELG10/04A·ALB13/04H·STI17/04A·BRE20/04A·STE24/04H·BRE27/04A·ANN01/05H·ALB04/05A·KEL31/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.700.641.000.190.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.360.640.570.570.140.71
vs Weaker (16)0.440.750.711.430.220.22
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L00D12L00D40W20W02L00D10WH·STR06/04A·COW10/04A·STE13/04H·ALB17/04A·QUE20/04A·STR27/04H·STI29/04A·EDI01/05H·QUE04/05H·STR31/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.501.000.470.800.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.640.640.860.570.430.71
vs Weaker (16)1.120.381.120.381.120.38
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D02L00D20W01L11D10W01LA·STE08/04H·ELG10/04A·ALB13/04H·STI17/04A·BRE20/04A·STE24/04H·BRE27/04A·ANN01/05H·ALB04/05A·KEL31/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.830.290.790.440.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.430.860.430.430.431.29
vs Weaker (16)0.310.810.141.140.440.56
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D02L13L00D01L11D00D32W01LH·STR06/04A·COW10/04A·STE13/04H·ALB17/04A·QUE20/04A·STR27/04H·STI29/04A·EDI01/05H·QUE04/05H·STR31/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.731.200.800.670.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.210.861.861.140.570.57
vs Weaker (16)0.690.620.620.500.750.75
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards82.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls77.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.574.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards71.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners70.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls70.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
COW wins
1
Draws
4
ELG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cowdenbeath vs Elgin · H/A from COW
DateH/AGameScore
10/04/21HCOW Vs Elgin1-0
28/11/20AElgin Vs COW5-2
10/03/20AElgin Vs COW3-2
07/12/19HCOW Vs Elgin0-0
03/08/19AElgin Vs COW3-0
13/04/19HCOW Vs Elgin2-1
12/01/19AElgin Vs COW1-4
03/11/18HCOW Vs Elgin1-2

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/21AKelty Hearts Vs COW2-0
04/05/21HCOW Vs Albion Rvs2-0
01/05/21AAnnan Athletic Vs COW1-1
27/04/21HCOW Vs Brechin0-2
24/04/21AStenhousemuir Vs COW0-2
20/04/21ABrechin Vs COW0-0
17/04/21HCOW Vs Stirling1-5
13/04/21AAlbion Rvs Vs COW0-0
10/04/21HCOW Vs Elgin1-0
08/04/21AStenhousemuir Vs COW1-0

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/21HELG Vs Stranraer1-1
04/05/21HELG Vs Queens Park3-2
01/05/21AEdinburgh City Vs ELG2-0
29/04/21HELG Vs Stirling3-1
27/04/21AStranraer Vs ELG1-4
20/04/21AQueens Park Vs ELG0-0
17/04/21HELG Vs Albion Rvs2-5
13/04/21AStenhousemuir Vs ELG2-0
10/04/21ACowdenbeath Vs ELG1-0
06/04/21HELG Vs Stranraer2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWL1.24
HomeLWLLW1.72
AwayDDWDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%52%16%
AVG goals2.422.642.20
Over 1.5 %66%72%60%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored1.041.280.80
Conceded1.381.361.40
BTTS40%52%28%
Clean Sheet34%32%36%
Corners10.2810.3610.20
Cards4.604.125.08
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.58
HomeWLWWD1.72
AwayLLDWL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%40%
AVG goals2.963.442.48
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %60%68%52%
Over 3.5 %36%48%24%
Scored1.702.041.36
Conceded1.261.401.12
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners10.029.0411.00
Cards4.224.404.04

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3681
67%
2.2
6828+40
2.7
69%
47%
33%
9.0
39%
3.2
36%
20.0
33%
1
1001.90.8
-
2ForfarForfar3660
44%
1.7
5736+21
2.6
78%
36%
28%
9.3
47%
3.1
44%
22.2
47%
0
0001.61.0
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3659
50%
1.6
6451+13
3.2
86%
64%
42%
9.5
47%
3.8
53%
21.7
46%
0
0001.81.4
-
4Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3652
39%
1.4
4349-6
2.6
75%
47%
31%
8.9
50%
3.1
36%
19.6
31%
0
0001.21.4
-
5StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3649
36%
1.4
4746+1
2.6
78%
42%
28%
9.8
53%
3.7
61%
21.2
53%
0
0001.31.3
-
6StranraerStranraer3647
36%
1.3
5054-4
2.9
81%
53%
33%
8.8
39%
4.3
58%
22.1
53%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StirlingStirling3642
31%
1.2
4146-5
2.4
67%
44%
25%
8.4
25%
3.8
56%
21.7
47%
0
0001.11.3
-
8
AR
Albion Rvs
3639
28%
1.1
3758-21
2.6
67%
50%
33%
8.8
33%
3.0
33%
20.1
42%
0
0001.01.6
-
9ElginElgin3637
25%
1.0
3351-18
2.3
81%
36%
19%
8.1
22%
3.9
53%
22.9
60%
0
0000.91.4
-
10CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3629
19%
0.8
2849-21
2.1
64%
36%
17%
9.1
33%
3.9
53%
21.5
53%
0
0000.81.4
-
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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