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Cowdenbeath vs Forfar Result & Analysis

Date: 19/09/2015
Time: 00:00
Final 2-1
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Vs
33%
27%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Forfar
Forfar
Scotland: League One
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Cowdenbeath win✓ Hit
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✗ Miss
40.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L17L10W24L23L22DH·STR08/08A·DUN15/08H·ALB22/08A·STE29/08A·AIR05/09H·PET12/09
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
3.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.503.001.331.331.674.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.503.001.501.001.505.00
vs Weaker (2)1.503.001.002.002.004.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ForfarForfar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W40W41W22D04L20WA·AIR08/08H·ALB15/08H·STE22/08A·AYR29/08H·DUN05/09A·BRE12/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.171.172.671.671.670.67
vs Stronger (5)1.801.202.002.001.670.67
vs Similar (1)4.001.004.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
8.9%
2-1 ✓
7.9%
0-1
7.1%
0-0
6.5%
0-2
6.4%
1-0
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
Cowdenbeath goals ↓
Forfar goals →
01234
06.5%7.1%6.4%3.3%1.3%
16.2%13%8.9%4.6%1.8%
25.1%7.9%6.1%3.2%1.2%
32.3%3.6%2.8%1.5%0.6%
40.8%1.3%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cowdenbeath goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dunfermline
2.19
Ayr
1.69
Peterhead
1.64
Stranraer
1.42
Albion Rvs
1.36
Airdrie United
1.36
Brechin
1.17
Stenhousemuir
1.11
Cowdenbeath
1.08
Forfar
0.94
Cowdenbeath is 0.14 points better than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 0.94).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dunfermline
2.31
Peterhead
2.00
Ayr
1.81
Forfar
1.33
Airdrie United
1.33
Brechin
1.31
Cowdenbeath
1.28
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stranraer
1.19
Albion Rvs
1.11
Cowdenbeath is 0.06 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.33).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dunfermline
0.83
Albion Rvs
1.22
Ayr
1.31
Peterhead
1.31
Stranraer
1.36
Airdrie United
1.39
Brechin
1.64
Forfar
1.67
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Stenhousemuir
2.22
Cowdenbeath is 0.33 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.67).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

ForfarForfar

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (6)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (4)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ForfarForfar

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (6)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (5)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (1)---0.00.0----
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Not collected for this league yet.

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Not collected for this league yet.

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L04L10W02L11D11DH·STR08/08A·DUN15/08H·ALB22/08A·STE29/08A·AIR05/09H·PET12/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.500.670.670.332.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.751.501.000.500.502.50
vs Weaker (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ForfarForfar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D41W11D02L10WA·AIR08/08H·ALB15/08H·STE22/08A·AYR29/08H·DUN05/09A·BRE12/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.671.331.001.000.33
vs Stronger (5)0.600.600.001.001.000.33
vs Similar (1)4.001.004.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D13L00D22D12L11DH·STR08/08A·DUN15/08H·ALB22/08A·STE29/08A·AIR05/09H·PET12/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.500.670.671.332.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.751.500.500.501.002.50
vs Weaker (2)1.501.501.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ForfarForfar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D40W00D11D02L10WA·AIR08/08H·ALB15/08H·STE22/08A·AYR29/08H·DUN05/09A·BRE12/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.501.330.670.670.33
vs Stronger (5)1.200.602.001.000.670.33
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (26)
€4m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
STE (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (4)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
COW wins
0
Draws
0
FOR wins

Head-to-head

Cowdenbeath vs Forfar · H/A from COW
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/09/15HCOW Vs Peterhead2-2
05/09/15AAirdrie United Vs COW3-2
29/08/15AStenhousemuir Vs COW4-2
22/08/15HCOW Vs Albion Rvs1-0
15/08/15ADunfermline Vs COW7-1
08/08/15HCOW Vs Stranraer1-2

ForfarForfar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/09/15ABrechin Vs FOR0-2
05/09/15HFOR Vs Dunfermline0-4
29/08/15AAyr Vs FOR2-2
22/08/15HFOR Vs Stenhousemuir4-1
15/08/15HFOR Vs Albion Rvs4-0
08/08/15AAirdrie United Vs FOR0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League One
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD0.67
HomeLWD1.33
AwayLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%33%0%
AVG goals4.502.676.33
Over 1.5 %83%67%100%
Over 2.5 %83%67%100%
Over 3.5 %67%33%100%
Scored1.501.331.67
Conceded3.001.334.67
BTTS83%67%100%
Clean Sheet17%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Forfar
Forfar
Scotland: League One
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLW2.17
HomeWWL2.00
AwayWDW2.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%67%67%
AVG goals3.334.332.33
Over 1.5 %83%100%67%
Over 2.5 %67%100%33%
Over 3.5 %67%100%33%
Scored2.172.671.67
Conceded1.171.670.67
BTTS33%33%33%
Clean Sheet50%33%67%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DunfermlineDunfermline3679
67%
2.2
8330+53
3.1
78%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2022.30.8
-
2
A
Ayr
3661
53%
1.7
6547+18
3.1
81%
69%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
3PeterheadPeterhead3659
44%
1.6
7247+25
3.3
78%
56%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.3
-
4StranraerStranraer3651
42%
1.4
4349-6
2.6
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
5Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United3649
39%
1.4
4850-2
2.7
78%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
6
AR
Albion Rvs
3649
36%
1.4
4044-4
2.3
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
7BrechinBrechin3642
33%
1.2
4759-12
2.9
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
8StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3640
31%
1.1
4680-34
3.5
78%
69%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.2
-
9CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3639
31%
1.1
4672-26
3.3
78%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
10ForfarForfar3634
22%
0.9
4860-12
3.0
81%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
Scotland: League One 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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