PythiaFootballBETA
This encounter between Crawley Town and Salford promises to be a finely balanced contest, with both teams coming off draws in their last matches against each other. Crawley Town's recent form has seen them draw with Salford, while Salford also drew with Crawley Town, highlighting the competitive nature of this matchup.
The model predicts an away win for Salford with a 40% probability, while Crawley Town has a 31% chance of winning at home and a 29% chance of drawing. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, and the most likely score is 1-1 with a 13.9% probability. Salford is expected to score 1.38 goals away from home, while conceding 0.88 goals, while Crawley Town scores 1 goal at home and concedes 1.75 goals against a stronger opponent.
The model's selection is the Away win with 40% probability, while suggesting the Under 3.5 model's selection with 74.7% probability and the Over 1.5 model's selection with 73.5% probability. Crawley Town has a 31% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 40% chance of losing. Salford has a 40% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 31% chance of losing.
A 0-0 draw at Crawley Town's home ground saw Salford extend their unbeaten run, with the win extending their streak of consecutive draws. The actual result was a draw, contrary to the final score. The model's selection, an away win, was wrong. The pre-match favourite, an away win, had a 40% probability of occurring. The model's call on an away win was incorrect. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 74.7% probability, while Over 1.5 goals missed, with a 73.5% probability.
Crawley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 0.88 | 1.62 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.96 | 1.56 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.93 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Salford| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.62 | 0.81 | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.58 | 1.00 | 1.71 | 0.79 | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Salford goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 14% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Crawley TownSalfordCrawley Town| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.8 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 25.6 | 25.9 | 25.2 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 12.1 | 13.0 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 26.9 | 28.0 | 26.0 |
| vs Similar (43) | 11.7 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 25.3 | 25.6 | 25.1 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 76% | 67% | 84% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 73% | 83% | 64% |
| % under line | 24% | 33% | 16% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 27% | 17% | 36% |
Salford| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 24.6 | 24.4 | 24.7 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 13.0 | - | 13.0 | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | 14.0 | - | 14.0 |
| vs Similar (45) | 9.8 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 25.0 | 24.4 | 25.9 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 9.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 21.8 | 25.0 | 18.5 |
| % over line | 51% | 58% | 43% | 40% | 30% | 52% | 69% | 69% | 70% |
| % under line | 49% | 42% | 57% | 60% | 70% | 48% | 31% | 31% | 30% |
Crawley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.57 | 0.29 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.30 | 0.59 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Salford| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.62 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 0.14 | 0.75 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Crawley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.93 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.62 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.67 | 0.96 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Salford| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.67 | 1.12 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.96 | 0.65 | 1.21 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 79.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 74.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 4-3 | |
| 13/01/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 12/08/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/01/23 | H | 3-2 | |
| 03/09/22 | A | 2-2 | |
| 29/03/22 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/08/21 | H | 2-1 | |
| 09/03/21 | H | 1-0 |
Crawley Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-2 |
Salford| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Notts County | 49 | 87 | 53% | 1.8 | 78 | 52 | +26 | 2.7 | 73% | 55% | 27% | 9.2 | 45% | 4.4 | 65% | 24.4 | 73% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 2 |  Bromley | 46 | 87 | 52% | 1.9 | 71 | 46 | +25 | 2.5 | 76% | 52% | 28% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.8 | 59% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 3 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 86 | 52% | 1.9 | 86 | 45 | +41 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.8 | 61% | 23.4 | 61% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 4 | Salford | 49 | 85 | 53% | 1.7 | 65 | 57 | +8 | 2.5 | 65% | 47% | 27% | 9.8 | 51% | 3.7 | 43% | 25.3 | 71% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 5 |  Cambridge | 46 | 82 | 48% | 1.8 | 66 | 33 | +33 | 2.2 | 72% | 35% | 13% | 9.2 | 50% | 3.1 | 35% | 22.9 | 59% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 6 |  Chesterfield | 48 | 80 | 44% | 1.7 | 71 | 57 | +14 | 2.7 | 71% | 44% | 29% | 10.2 | 58% | 4.1 | 56% | 22.0 | 48% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 7 |  Grimsby | 48 | 79 | 46% | 1.6 | 77 | 54 | +23 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 33% | 10.5 | 54% | 4.0 | 65% | 24.2 | 69% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 8 |  Barnet | 46 | 76 | 46% | 1.7 | 70 | 53 | +17 | 2.7 | 76% | 48% | 30% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.8 | 65% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 9 |  Swindon | 46 | 75 | 48% | 1.6 | 70 | 59 | +11 | 2.8 | 85% | 63% | 28% | 11.2 | 74% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.7 | 37% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 10 |  Oldham | 46 | 68 | 39% | 1.5 | 60 | 44 | +16 | 2.3 | 65% | 48% | 20% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.9 | 63% | 25.0 | 72% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 11 |  Crewe | 46 | 67 | 41% | 1.5 | 64 | 58 | +6 | 2.7 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.3 | 59% | 3.9 | 52% | 25.5 | 74% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 12 |  Colchester | 46 | 66 | 39% | 1.4 | 62 | 49 | +13 | 2.4 | 67% | 35% | 20% | 9.1 | 37% | 4.1 | 63% | 24.9 | 76% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 13 |  Walsall | 46 | 65 | 39% | 1.4 | 56 | 56 | +0 | 2.4 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.0 | 59% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.1 | 61% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 14 |  Bristol Rvs | 46 | 62 | 41% | 1.3 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.7 | 76% | 24.2 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 15 |  Fleetwood Town | 46 | 61 | 33% | 1.3 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 2.5 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 10.0 | 57% | 3.8 | 54% | 23.0 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 16 |  Accrington | 46 | 53 | 30% | 1.2 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.3 | 67% | 37% | 20% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.2 | 48% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 17 |  Gillingham | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 53 | 72 | -19 | 2.7 | 70% | 46% | 30% | 9.5 | 43% | 4.0 | 61% | 23.9 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 18 |  Cheltenham | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 53 | 79 | -26 | 2.9 | 80% | 48% | 33% | 9.6 | 54% | 3.6 | 48% | 22.7 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 19 |  Shrewsbury | 46 | 49 | 28% | 1.1 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 2.4 | 63% | 46% | 30% | 8.2 | 30% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.3 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 20 |  Newport County | 46 | 43 | 26% | 0.9 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 2.7 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 9.5 | 54% | 4.0 | 54% | 23.5 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 21 |  Tranmere | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 54 | 79 | -25 | 2.9 | 83% | 54% | 35% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.8 | 57% | 22.4 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 46 | 40 | 17% | 0.9 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 2.4 | 74% | 43% | 26% | 12.0 | 78% | 4.1 | 59% | 25.7 | 76% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 23 |  Harrogate | 46 | 39 | 22% | 0.8 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.3 | 70% | 37% | 17% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.1 | 39% | 21.7 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 24 |  Barrow | 46 | 36 | 20% | 0.8 | 45 | 78 | -33 | 2.7 | 72% | 63% | 33% | 9.9 | 59% | 3.3 | 48% | 20.4 | 39% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 46% |