PythiaFootballBETA
Cambridge's recent form note stands out, having come off a win, but Crewe also shares this storyline. The model predicts an away win, with Cambridge favoured to take the three points. The probabilities reflect this, with a 43% chance of an away win, 27% for a home win, and 30% for a draw. The expected total goals are 2.4, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.2%.
In terms of form, Crewe scores an average of 1.5 goals at home against similar opponents, conceding 1.0. Cambridge scores 1.45 goals away against similar opponents, conceding 0.64. The model's selection for the match is an Under 3.5, with an 78.9% chance of hitting.
The home win percentage is 27%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 43%. The model's suggested picks include an Under 3.5 (78.9%), and an Away win (43%).
In a shocking turn of events, Cambridge's winless streak came to an end as they earned a hard-fought 0-0 draw against Crewe, extending their run of consecutive away matches without a loss. The actual result was a draw, contrary to the final score. Cambridge's away form has been impressive, with an average of 1.45 goals scored and 0.64 conceded in their last matches. The model's selection, Cambridge to win, was incorrect, as it had a pre-match probability of 43%. The model's selection was the favourite to win. The model's selection of Cambridge to win MISSED, while the selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 78.9%.
Crewe| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.30 | 1.57 | 1.29 | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.20 | 2.20 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.40 | 1.12 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.31 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Cambridge| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 0.62 | 1.29 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.33 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.75 | 0.62 | 2.00 | 0.62 | 1.45 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Cambridge goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 12% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 14% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
CreweCambridgeCrewe| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 25.6 | 27.5 | 23.7 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 8.8 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 25.4 | 29.2 | 20.8 |
| vs Similar (41) | 9.2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 25.6 | 27.1 | 24.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 56% | 48% | 64% | 50% | 40% | 60% | 74% | 84% | 64% |
| % under line | 44% | 52% | 36% | 50% | 60% | 40% | 26% | 16% | 36% |
Cambridge| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 22.8 | 23.0 | 22.6 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 7.3 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 22.8 | 22.6 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (38) | 9.4 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 22.8 | 23.1 | 22.5 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 44% | 42% | 46% | 36% | 31% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| % under line | 56% | 58% | 54% | 64% | 69% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/01/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/10/21 | H | 2-2 |
Crewe| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 2-1 |
Cambridge| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 16/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 5-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Notts County | 49 | 87 | 53% | 1.8 | 78 | 52 | +26 | 2.7 | 73% | 55% | 27% | 9.3 | 46% | 4.4 | 65% | 24.2 | 72% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 56% |
| 2 |  Bromley | 46 | 87 | 52% | 1.9 | 71 | 46 | +25 | 2.5 | 76% | 52% | 28% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.8 | 59% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 3 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 86 | 52% | 1.9 | 86 | 45 | +41 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.8 | 61% | 23.4 | 61% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 4 |  Salford | 49 | 85 | 53% | 1.7 | 65 | 57 | +8 | 2.5 | 65% | 47% | 27% | 9.9 | 52% | 3.7 | 41% | 24.9 | 72% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 5 | Cambridge | 46 | 82 | 48% | 1.8 | 66 | 33 | +33 | 2.2 | 72% | 35% | 13% | 9.2 | 50% | 3.1 | 35% | 22.9 | 59% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 6 |  Chesterfield | 48 | 80 | 44% | 1.7 | 71 | 57 | +14 | 2.7 | 71% | 44% | 29% | 10.3 | 59% | 4.2 | 57% | 21.8 | 46% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 7 |  Grimsby | 48 | 79 | 46% | 1.6 | 77 | 54 | +23 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 33% | 10.5 | 54% | 4.1 | 65% | 23.9 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 8 |  Barnet | 46 | 76 | 46% | 1.7 | 70 | 53 | +17 | 2.7 | 76% | 48% | 30% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.8 | 65% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 9 |  Swindon | 46 | 75 | 48% | 1.6 | 70 | 59 | +11 | 2.8 | 85% | 63% | 28% | 11.2 | 74% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.7 | 37% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 10 |  Oldham | 46 | 68 | 39% | 1.5 | 60 | 44 | +16 | 2.3 | 65% | 48% | 20% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.9 | 63% | 25.0 | 72% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 11 | Crewe | 46 | 67 | 41% | 1.5 | 64 | 58 | +6 | 2.7 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.3 | 59% | 3.9 | 52% | 25.5 | 74% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 12 |  Colchester | 46 | 66 | 39% | 1.4 | 62 | 49 | +13 | 2.4 | 67% | 35% | 20% | 9.1 | 37% | 4.1 | 63% | 24.9 | 76% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 13 |  Walsall | 46 | 65 | 39% | 1.4 | 56 | 56 | +0 | 2.4 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.0 | 59% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.1 | 61% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 14 |  Bristol Rvs | 46 | 62 | 41% | 1.3 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.7 | 76% | 24.2 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 15 |  Fleetwood Town | 46 | 61 | 33% | 1.3 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 2.5 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 10.0 | 57% | 3.8 | 54% | 23.0 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 16 |  Accrington | 46 | 53 | 30% | 1.2 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.3 | 67% | 37% | 20% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.2 | 48% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 17 |  Gillingham | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 53 | 72 | -19 | 2.7 | 70% | 46% | 30% | 9.5 | 43% | 4.0 | 61% | 23.9 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 18 |  Cheltenham | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 53 | 79 | -26 | 2.9 | 80% | 48% | 33% | 9.6 | 54% | 3.6 | 48% | 22.7 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 19 |  Shrewsbury | 46 | 49 | 28% | 1.1 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 2.4 | 63% | 46% | 30% | 8.2 | 30% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.3 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 20 |  Newport County | 46 | 43 | 26% | 0.9 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 2.7 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 9.5 | 54% | 4.0 | 54% | 23.5 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 21 |  Tranmere | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 54 | 79 | -25 | 2.9 | 83% | 54% | 35% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.8 | 57% | 22.4 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 22 |  Crawley Town | 46 | 40 | 17% | 0.9 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 2.4 | 74% | 43% | 26% | 12.0 | 78% | 4.1 | 59% | 25.7 | 76% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 23 |  Harrogate | 46 | 39 | 22% | 0.8 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.3 | 70% | 37% | 17% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.1 | 39% | 21.7 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 24 |  Barrow | 46 | 36 | 20% | 0.8 | 45 | 78 | -33 | 2.7 | 72% | 63% | 33% | 9.9 | 59% | 3.3 | 48% | 20.4 | 39% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 46% |