The match between Crewe and Walsall sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 31% for a Crewe victory, 29% for a draw, and 40% for Walsall to lift the trophy. On average, the game is expected to produce 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two and a 27% chance of that exact figure. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, a 13.9% probability. Crewe, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.36 goals scored and 0.93 conceded, while Walsall, on the road against a comparable side, scores 1.62 and concedes 1.38. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% with a 4% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (96.7% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.4% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.6% with a 2% edge), and Under 5.5 (95.4% with a 4% edge). Both teams have shown recent resilience, with Crewe drawing their last match and Walsall unbeaten in five, setting the stage for a tightly contested fixture.
Results analysis
The draw was a shock, as the pre-match favourite, Away win, with a 40% chance, fell short. Crewe and Walsall finished 2-2, a result that left both sides level on points. The model’s pick was wrong, but every other selection it made hit. Under 7.5 goals landed at 99.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4% and Under 5.5 at 95.4%. The match ended with both teams coming off recent form that saw Crewe draw and Walsall remain unbeaten in five.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Crewe win✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied 41.6% · @ 2.24
Edge
-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.30
Dafabet
2.28
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.26
BetVictor
2.25
Draw✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.42
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.70
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Walsall win✗ Miss
39.6%
Avg Implied 31.3% · @ 2.98
Edge
+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.10
Dafabet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
10Bet
3.05
BetVictor
3.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Crewe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.13
1.36
0.93
1.06
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.17
1.07
1.36
0.93
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Walsall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
0.67
1.40
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
-
-
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (28)
1.11
1.39
0.67
1.40
1.62
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
@ 1.24-1.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
@ 3.74+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Under
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.93
Superbet
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.0%
@ 1.80-5.3%
Under 2.5
53.0%
@ 1.97+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.82
SBO
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.05
SBO
2.04
Superbet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.4%
@ 2.95-6.1%
Under 3.5
74.6%
@ 1.35+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
Under
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
@ 1.63-3.7%
No
47.0%
@ 2.14+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Superbet
1.62
No
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
BetVictor
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.14+6.6%
0-1
9.4%@ 9.45+4.6%
0-0
9.1%@ 10.58+4.8%
1-2
8.6%@ 9.74+4.0%
1-0
8.0%@ 7.92+2.3%
2-1
7.5%@ 8.37+2.2%
0-2
7.3%@ 14.74+4.2%
2-0
5.5%@ 10.93+1.4%
Crewe goals ↓
Walsall goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
9.4%
7.3%
3.3%
1.1%
1
8.0%
14%
8.6%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.5%
7.5%
5.1%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.2%
3.0%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crewe goals (down), columns = Walsall goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Crewe is 0.04 points better than Walsall in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Crewe is 0.17 goals better than Walsall in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Crewe is 0.04 goals worse than Walsall in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Crewe is 8.9 percentage points better than Walsall in terms of average possession (50% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Crewe
For 4.8 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Walsall
For 5.3 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crewe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.0
10.0
3.7
3.5
4.0
25.1
27.4
23.0
vs Stronger (1)
25.0
-
25.0
2.0
-
2.0
13.0
-
13.0
vs Similar (49)
9.2
9.0
9.4
3.8
3.5
4.1
25.4
27.4
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
50%
64%
48%
44%
52%
73%
88%
60%
% under line
43%
50%
36%
52%
56%
48%
27%
12%
40%
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Walsall
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.2
10.8
3.7
4.5
2.8
22.9
24.2
21.7
vs Stronger (2)
15.0
-
15.0
1.5
-
1.5
16.5
-
16.5
vs Similar (46)
10.4
10.2
10.6
3.8
4.5
3.0
23.2
24.2
22.0
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
-
9.0
3.0
-
3.0
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
64%
67%
62%
46%
62%
31%
58%
71%
46%
% under line
36%
33%
38%
54%
38%
69%
42%
29%
54%
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.9%
@ 1.71+3.6%
Under 9.5
42.1%
@ 2.04-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Unibet
1.76
10Bet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.0%
Under 21.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Crewe or Draw✓ Hit
60.4%
Avg Implied 68.8% · @ 1.35
Edge
-8.5%
31%
29%
40%
covers Crewe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Crewe or Walsall✗ Miss
70.9%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.8%
31%
29%
40%
covers Crewe + Walsall
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Walsall✓ Hit
68.7%
Avg Implied 58.4% · @ 1.59
Edge
+10.3%
31%
29%
40%
covers Draw + Walsall
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.60
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Crewe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.5%
@ 1.22-6.9%
Under
30.5%
@ 3.93+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.13
1xBet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Crewe over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.3%
@ 2.09-11.3%
Under
66.7%
@ 1.68+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Under
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Crewe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 4.49-8.9%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.17+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
BetVictor
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Under
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Crewe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 9.88-6.3%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.05+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.90
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Walsall over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.4%
@ 1.31+3.3%
Under
25.6%
@ 3.22-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.26
Marathonbet
3.26
Walsall over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.6%
@ 2.52+2.7%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.47-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.62
Betfair
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Walsall over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 6.06+0.5%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.10-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.10
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.10
Under
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Walsall over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 14.33-1.7%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.02+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Crewe, so a minus line means Crewe give that many goals of a start and Walsall receive them. At -1, Crewe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Crewe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Crewe)Actual: Walsall
Crewe -2
4.3%
@ 8.60-5.9%
Draw -2
9.1%
@ 5.91-5.8%
Walsall +2
86.5%
@ 1.18+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Away
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Crewe)Actual: Walsall
Crewe -1
13.5%
@ 4.22-7.8%
Draw -1
17.8%
@ 3.94-4.9%
Walsall +1
68.7%
@ 1.60+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Away
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Handicap +1 (Crewe)Actual: Crewe
Crewe +1
60.4%
@ 1.35-5.5%
Draw +1
20.6%
@ 4.62+1.3%
Walsall -1
19.0%
@ 6.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Handicap +2 (Crewe)Actual: Crewe
Crewe +2
81.0%
@ 1.10-2.3%
Draw +2
12.1%
@ 8.60+1.4%
Walsall -2
6.9%
@ 15.00+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
7.80
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crewe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
0.48
0.52
0.64
0.57
0.33
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Walsall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.47
0.27
0.47
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.43
0.27
0.47
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.5%
@ 1.33-0.2%
Under 0.5
30.5%
@ 3.07+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.58-1.4%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.45+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.87
Pinnacle
2.66
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Under
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 6.41-2.3%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.09+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betano
6.30
Marathonbet
6.25
Under
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crewe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.2%
@ 1.89-0.9%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.82+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.90
Unibet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Crewe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 5.61-1.9%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.11+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.95
Marathonbet
5.95
Betano
5.60
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Crewe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 15.17-3.7%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Walsall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.0%
@ 2.13-0.5%
Under
57.0%
@ 1.64+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.19
Unibet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.08
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Walsall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 7.02-2.2%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.07+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Betano
7.00
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Under
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Walsall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 19.17-3.1%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crewe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.71
0.36
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.69
0.55
0.71
0.36
0.67
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Walsall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.40
0.93
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
-
-
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.96
0.40
0.93
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.5%
@ 1.20-0.5%
Under 0.5
23.5%
@ 4.05+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Under
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Betano
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.6%
@ 2.01-4.6%
Under 1.5
58.4%
@ 1.73+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
William Hil
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.6%
@ 4.13-4.9%
Under 2.5
82.4%
@ 1.20+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crewe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.9%
@ 1.64-5.6%
Under
49.1%
@ 2.13+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.61
Under
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Crewe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.3%
@ 4.11-6.3%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.20+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.00
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Crewe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 10.75-5.1%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Walsall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.1%
@ 1.81+0.2%
Under
48.9%
@ 1.89-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Under
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
10Bet
1.83
Walsall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 5.16-1.5%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.13+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Walsall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 15.00-2.9%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.07
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.4%
1.11
Pinnacle
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.2%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.09
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.07
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.11
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.2%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.7%
1.20
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
81.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.20
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Betfair
1.36
+6.1%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
74.4%
1.31
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.6%
1.24
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.23
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.9%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
-1.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Crewe
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Lankester33%
Josh March33%
Adrien Thibaut25%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mickey Demetriou33%
Josh March33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lewis Billington50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordan Gibson50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Calum Agius25%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Walsall
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aaron Pressley50%
Harrison Burke33%
Reece Smith25%
Sven Sprangler0%
Albert Adomah0%
Andy Dallas0%
Lewis Simper0%
Tai Sodje0%
James Connolly0%
Jed Ward0%
Rico Browne0%
Mason Hancock0%
Charlie Crew0%
Declan Skura0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Courtney Clarke0%
Isaac Moore0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Moore75%
Sven Sprangler67%
Tai Sodje33%
James Connolly33%
Elicha Ahui33%
Rico Browne25%
Declan Skura25%
Albert Adomah0%
Andy Dallas0%
Aaron Pressley0%
Lewis Simper0%
Reece Smith0%
Harrison Burke0%
Jed Ward0%
Mason Hancock0%
Charlie Crew0%
Courtney Clarke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reece Smith50%
Mason Hancock25%
Sven Sprangler0%
Albert Adomah0%
Andy Dallas0%
Aaron Pressley0%
Lewis Simper0%
Tai Sodje0%
James Connolly0%
Harrison Burke0%
Jed Ward0%
Rico Browne0%
Charlie Crew0%
Declan Skura0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Courtney Clarke0%
Isaac Moore0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aaron Pressley50%
Andy Dallas25%
Reece Smith25%
Courtney Clarke25%
Sven Sprangler0%
Albert Adomah0%
Lewis Simper0%
Tai Sodje0%
James Connolly0%
Harrison Burke0%
Jed Ward0%
Rico Browne0%
Mason Hancock0%
Charlie Crew0%
Declan Skura0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Isaac Moore0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Crewe's squad is €1m more valuable than Walsall's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Crewe's attack is €1m more valuable than Walsall's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Crewe and Walsall have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Crewe and Walsall have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale