The match between Crewe and York is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. Home win stands at 32%, a draw at 27%, and an away win at 41%. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most probable total of two goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.9% chance. Crewe, playing at home, has been scoring 1.67 goals per match and conceding 2.33 against stronger opponents, while York, on the road, has managed 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded to stronger teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4% with a 4% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.4% (edge 2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1% (edge 2%), Home under 3.5 goals at 95.5% (edge 2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.4% (edge 3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.9% (edge 1%), and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.2%. Crewe entered the game after a draw, while York comes off a defeat.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Crewe win
31.9%
Avg Implied 33.3% · @ 2.77
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.91
Dafabet
2.90
Betano
2.90
1xBet
2.87
Marathonbet
2.85
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.29
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Marathonbet
3.32
1xBet
3.32
York win
40.8%
Avg Implied 38.7% · @ 2.38
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.55
10Bet
2.48
Betfair
2.45
Betano
2.40
William Hil
2.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Crewe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.17
1.40
1.00
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.24
1.10
1.40
1.00
1.07
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.90
2.60
0.93
1.87
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
2.00
1.67
1.67
1.67
2.33
vs Similar (24)
2.38
0.62
2.83
0.75
1.92
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.8%
@ 1.26+5.2%
Under 1.5
21.2%
@ 3.51-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.74
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.1%
@ 1.86+3.6%
Under 2.5
45.9%
@ 1.89-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.93
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.85
SBO
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.91
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.7%
@ 3.12+2.1%
Under 3.5
68.3%
@ 1.32-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.45
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
BetVictor
3.13
Pinnacle
3.08
Under
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Both teams to score
Yes
58.5%
@ 1.67+3.3%
No
41.5%
@ 2.06-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
No
1xBet
2.11
BetVictor
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.00+5.5%
1-2
8.9%@ 8.67+3.8%
2-1
7.7%@ 9.49+3.0%
0-1
7.7%@ 8.02+2.1%
0-0
7.0%@ 9.37+2.2%
0-2
6.7%@ 11.51+2.9%
1-0
6.5%@ 8.79+1.5%
2-2
5.9%@ 11.98+2.2%
Crewe goals ↓
York goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
7.7%
6.7%
3.4%
1.3%
1
6.5%
13%
8.9%
4.5%
1.7%
2
5.1%
7.7%
5.9%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.2%
3.4%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crewe goals (down), columns = York goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Crewe is 0.80 points better than York in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 0.66).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Crewe is 0.78 goals better than York in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 0.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Crewe is 1.44 goals better than York in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 2.70).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Crewe
For 5.3 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.1 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
York
For 6.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 18.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crewe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.2
10.0
3.7
3.3
4.0
24.9
27.0
23.0
vs Stronger (1)
25.0
-
25.0
2.0
-
2.0
13.0
-
13.0
vs Similar (49)
9.3
9.2
9.4
3.7
3.3
4.1
25.2
27.0
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
50%
64%
46%
40%
52%
73%
88%
60%
% under line
43%
50%
36%
54%
60%
48%
27%
12%
40%
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.3
11.0
3.7
3.8
3.6
18.8
20.3
16.5
vs Stronger (8)
11.2
11.3
11.0
3.2
4.2
2.2
18.8
20.3
16.5
vs Similar (42)
-
-
-
3.8
3.7
3.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
67%
50%
48%
48%
48%
20%
33%
0%
% under line
40%
33%
50%
52%
52%
52%
80%
67%
100%
This opponent (Crewe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.8
Swindon
11.4
York
11.2
Walsall
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Chesterfield
10.3
Barnet
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.8
Accrington
9.8
Gillingham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Rochdale
9.0
Colchester
9.0
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Accrington
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cheltenham
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.1
Crewe
25.1
Colchester
24.9
Salford
24.8
Oldham
24.7
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Gillingham
23.6
Rotherham
23.5
Rochdale
23.5
Newport County
23.2
Walsall
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Tranmere
22.7
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.1
Exeter
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Port Vale
21.9
Northampton
21.9
Accrington
21.8
Swindon
20.3
York
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.5%
@ 1.74+0.3%
Under 9.5
46.5%
@ 1.98-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Under
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.4%
Under 3.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.7%
Under 21.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Crewe or Draw
59.2%
Avg Implied 61.3% · @ 1.52
Edge
-2.1%
32%
27%
41%
covers Crewe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
BetVictor
1.53
Crewe or York
72.7%
Avg Implied 71.9% · @ 1.29
Edge
+0.9%
32%
27%
41%
covers Crewe + York
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or York
68.1%
Avg Implied 66.8% · @ 1.39
Edge
+1.2%
32%
27%
41%
covers Draw + York
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Crewe over/under 0.5
Over
73.4%
@ 1.30+2.0%
Under
26.6%
@ 3.23-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.20
Crewe over/under 1.5
Over
38.1%
@ 2.48+0.6%
Under
61.9%
@ 1.49-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
Under
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Crewe over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
@ 5.88-1.0%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.10+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
5.75
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Crewe over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
@ 13.75-2.4%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
York over/under 0.5
Over
78.1%
@ 1.25+3.8%
Under
21.9%
@ 3.60-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.64
York over/under 1.5
Over
44.9%
@ 2.24+3.3%
Under
55.1%
@ 1.59-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.43
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
BetVictor
2.20
Under
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
York over/under 2.5
Over
19.6%
@ 4.91+0.7%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.14-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
York over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
@ 11.00-1.8%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.04+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Crewe, so a minus line means Crewe give that many goals of a start and York receive them. At -1, Crewe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Crewe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Crewe)
Crewe -2
5.1%
@ 11.99-2.3%
Draw -2
9.5%
@ 7.17-2.9%
York +2
85.4%
@ 1.10+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Crewe)
Crewe -1
14.6%
@ 5.60-1.3%
Draw -1
17.4%
@ 4.32-3.3%
York +1
68.1%
@ 1.40+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Unibet
5.00
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
3.90
Away
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Handicap +1 (Crewe)
Crewe +1
59.2%
@ 1.51+0.0%
Draw +1
20.1%
@ 4.05-2.0%
York -1
20.7%
@ 4.79+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.45
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
Unibet
3.95
Away
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Handicap +2 (Crewe)
Crewe +2
79.3%
@ 1.14+0.6%
Draw +2
12.5%
@ 7.01-0.3%
York -2
8.1%
@ 10.70-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Away
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
8.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crewe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
0.48
0.52
0.60
0.60
0.36
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.47
0.40
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.25
1.75
0.33
0.58
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.3%
@ 1.36+2.3%
Under 0.5
29.7%
@ 2.89-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.09
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
@ 2.69+2.5%
Under 1.5
63.0%
@ 1.41-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Under
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.5%
@ 6.76+0.8%
Under 2.5
85.5%
@ 1.08-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
7.50
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Betano
6.20
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crewe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.0%
@ 2.12+7.2%
Under
49.0%
@ 1.65-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.15
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Crewe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.9%
@ 6.75+1.2%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.08-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.95
Betano
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Crewe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
@ 19.25-2.1%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
York over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.7%
@ 1.99-1.9%
Under
55.3%
@ 1.73+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.07
Betano
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
10Bet
1.73
York over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.5%
@ 5.99-3.0%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.10+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
York over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 17.38-4.0%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crewe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.76
0.59
0.80
0.40
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.57
1.13
0.53
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.21
0.38
1.08
0.42
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.22+5.0%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 3.84-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
4.00
1xBet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
William Hil
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.4%
@ 2.08+2.6%
Under 1.5
52.6%
@ 1.69-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
William Hil
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.1%
@ 4.32+3.6%
Under 2.5
74.9%
@ 1.18-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.75
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crewe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.6%
@ 1.79+7.7%
Under
40.4%
@ 1.93-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Crewe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.3%
@ 4.88+2.3%
Under
78.7%
@ 1.14-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Crewe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
@ 12.75-1.8%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
York over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.9%
@ 1.69-5.1%
Under
50.1%
@ 2.06+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Under
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.97
York over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.5%
@ 4.28-4.2%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.19+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Betano
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
York over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
@ 10.62-4.0%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.03+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+2.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+1.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.2%
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
+1.8%
Under 5.5
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
-
+3.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-0.8%
Away +2 handicap
85.4%
1.10
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
+5.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
85.2%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
1xBet
1.09
+1.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.1%
1.08
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-
-1.2%
Under 5.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
-0.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.19
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-
+4.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+5.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
80.4%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-0.7%
Home +2 handicap
79.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
-
+0.6%
Over 1.5
78.8%
1.26
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
+5.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-2.3%
Away over 0.5 goals
78.1%
1.25
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+3.8%
Over 19.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.18
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-3.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
73.4%
1.30
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
1xBet
1.30
+2.0%
Home or Away
72.7%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
+0.9%
Under 4.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.4%
1.36
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
-
-
+2.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
1.36
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+2.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Crewe
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Lankester33%
Josh March33%
Adrien Thibaut25%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mickey Demetriou33%
Josh March33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lewis Billington50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordan Gibson50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Calum Agius25%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
York
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Newby50%
O. Pearce25%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
J. King0%
Joe Grey0%
H. Boyes0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Z. Medley33%
Ryan Fallowfield33%
Alfie McNally33%
M. Williams25%
Ollie Banks0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
A. Newby0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
H. Boyes0%
Joe Felix0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
H. Boyes100%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
A. Newby0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Newby50%
H. Boyes33%
Joe Grey25%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Crewe's squad is €3m more valuable than York's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Crewe's attack is €1m more valuable than York's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Crewe and York have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Crewe and York have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Oldham
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale