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Crusaders FC vs Ballymena United Result & Analysis

Date: 26/10/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Vs
46%
28%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Crusaders FC win✓ Hit
46.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D21W01L01L03L40W21W23L11DA·BAL20/08H·CLI24/08H·CAR31/08H·GLE14/09A·DUN17/09H·POR21/09A·LOU28/09H·COL05/10H·LIN12/10A·LAR19/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.201.441.441.290.93
vs Stronger (7)0.711.430.752.000.670.67
vs Similar (23)1.571.131.671.251.451.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L31W10W10W41W32W10W41W10W01LA·DUN24/08H·GLE30/08A·LAR07/09H·GLE14/09A·CAR17/09H·CLI21/09A·POR28/09H·LOU05/10A·GLE12/10H·COL19/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.471.471.331.001.60
vs Stronger (12)0.751.671.001.000.502.33
vs Similar (18)1.561.331.781.561.331.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0 ✓
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.1%
Crusaders FC goals ↓
Ballymena United goals →
01234
08.3%6.6%4.3%1.6%0.4%
19.7%13%6.7%2.4%0.7%
28.4%9.3%5.1%1.9%0.5%
34.4%4.8%2.7%1.0%0.3%
41.7%1.9%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crusaders FC goals (down), columns = Ballymena United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Linfield
2.24
Larne
1.66
Cliftonville FC
1.60
Glentoran
1.56
Dungannon Swifts
1.50
Portadown
1.47
Coleraine FC
1.45
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.24
Glenavon FC
1.21
Carrick Rangers
0.95
Loughgall
0.58
Annagh United
0.00
Crusaders FC is 0.15 points better than Ballymena United in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Linfield
1.82
Cliftonville FC
1.55
Annagh United
1.50
Coleraine FC
1.40
Dungannon Swifts
1.34
Portadown
1.26
Glentoran
1.26
Ballymena United
1.24
Larne
1.21
Crusaders FC
1.21
Glenavon FC
1.11
Carrick Rangers
1.00
Loughgall
0.95
Crusaders FC is 0.03 goals worse than Ballymena United in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Linfield
0.74
Larne
0.87
Glentoran
1.00
Cliftonville FC
1.02
Portadown
1.18
Glenavon FC
1.24
Dungannon Swifts
1.26
Coleraine FC
1.30
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.42
Carrick Rangers
1.55
Loughgall
2.24
Annagh United
4.00
Crusaders FC is 0.04 goals better than Ballymena United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.42).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W11D01L01L01L01L00D11D01L00DA·BAL20/08H·CLI24/08H·CAR31/08H·GLE14/09A·DUN17/09H·POR21/09A·LOU28/09H·COL05/10H·LIN12/10A·LAR19/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.500.880.430.50
vs Stronger (7)0.000.710.001.000.000.33
vs Similar (23)0.610.700.670.830.550.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W00D00D20W11D10W31W00D00DA·DUN24/08H·GLE30/08A·LAR07/09H·GLE14/09A·CAR17/09H·CLI21/09A·POR28/09H·LOU05/10A·GLE12/10H·COL19/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.500.800.670.470.33
vs Stronger (12)0.170.420.170.330.170.50
vs Similar (18)0.940.561.220.890.670.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D20W00D00D02L40W10W22D11DA·BAL20/08H·CLI24/08H·CAR31/08H·GLE14/09A·DUN17/09H·POR21/09A·LOU28/09H·COL05/10H·LIN12/10A·LAR19/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.500.940.560.860.43
vs Stronger (7)0.710.710.751.000.670.33
vs Similar (23)0.960.431.000.420.910.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W10W21W21W00D10W10W01LA·DUN24/08H·GLE30/08A·LAR07/09H·GLE14/09A·CAR17/09H·CLI21/09A·POR28/09H·LOU05/10A·GLE12/10H·COL19/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.970.670.670.531.27
vs Stronger (12)0.581.250.830.670.331.83
vs Similar (18)0.610.780.560.670.670.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Ballymena United have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Ballymena United have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Ballymena United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Ballymena United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
5
CF wins
1
Draws
1
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Crusaders FC vs Ballymena United · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/24ABallymena United Vs CF0-1
09/03/24ABallymena United Vs CF2-4
13/10/23HCF Vs Ballymena United1-0
11/08/23ABallymena United Vs CF1-2
25/02/23ABallymena United Vs CF0-0
14/11/22HCF Vs Ballymena United0-1
23/09/22HCF Vs Ballymena United3-0

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24ALarne Vs CF1-1
12/10/24HCF Vs Linfield2-3
05/10/24HCF Vs Coleraine FC2-1
28/09/24ALoughgall Vs CF0-4
21/09/24HCF Vs Portadown0-3
17/09/24ADungannon Swifts Vs CF1-0
14/09/24HCF Vs Glenavon FC0-1
31/08/24HCF Vs Carrick Rangers2-1
24/08/24HCF Vs Cliftonville FC1-1
20/08/24ABallymena United Vs CF0-1

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24HBU Vs Coleraine FC0-1
12/10/24AGlenavon FC Vs BU0-1
05/10/24HBU Vs Loughgall4-1
28/09/24APortadown Vs BU0-1
21/09/24HBU Vs Cliftonville FC3-2
17/09/24ACarrick Rangers Vs BU1-4
14/09/24HBU Vs Glentoran1-0
07/09/24ALarne Vs BU0-1
30/08/24HBU Vs Glenavon FC3-1
24/08/24ADungannon Swifts Vs BU1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD1.62
HomeWLLWL1.40
AwayWWLWD1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%40%56%
AVG goals2.622.602.64
Over 1.5 %78%88%68%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %26%16%36%
Scored1.421.241.60
Conceded1.201.361.04
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet28%16%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.10
HomeWWWWL1.12
AwayLWWWW1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%35%33%
AVG goals2.542.542.54
Over 1.5 %60%65%54%
Over 2.5 %38%35%42%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored0.981.150.79
Conceded1.561.381.75
BTTS30%35%25%
Clean Sheet24%19%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LinfieldLinfield3885
71%
2.2
6928+41
2.6
71%
55%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.7
-
2Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4064
48%
1.6
6241+21
2.6
78%
45%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.0
-
3LarneLarne3863
45%
1.7
4633+13
2.1
66%
34%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
4GlentoranGlentoran3961
44%
1.6
4939+10
2.3
67%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.0
-
5Coleraine FCColeraine FC4058
40%
1.4
5652+4
2.7
80%
55%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
-
6Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3857
45%
1.5
5148+3
2.6
71%
42%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.31.3
-
7PortadownPortadown3856
42%
1.5
4845+3
2.4
76%
42%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.2
-
8Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3954
41%
1.4
4754-7
2.6
67%
51%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.4
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3847
37%
1.2
4754-7
2.7
66%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.4
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3846
32%
1.2
4247-5
2.3
71%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
11Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers4038
22%
0.9
4062-22
2.5
70%
55%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.6
-
12LoughgallLoughgall3822
13%
0.6
3685-49
3.2
82%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United20
0%
0.0
38-5
5.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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