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Crusaders FC vs Ballymena United Result & Analysis

Date: 15/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Vs
33%
25%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Crusaders FC, coming off two straight defeats, face Ballymena United, who are looking to build on a recent win. The model predicts an away win for Ballymena United, with a 40% probability of victory. This match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.4% probability.

At home, Crusaders FC have scored an average of 2.25 goals and conceded 1.5. In contrast, Ballymena United, when playing away, have scored 1.38 goals and conceded 1.88 against stronger opponents. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.1% probability, and an edge of 6%. The probabilities for the match result are 35% for a home win, 25% for a draw, and 40% for an away win. The model's selection is the away win.

Results analysis

Crusaders FC's win extends their run, but it was a shocking upset as they defeated Ballymena United 2-1, overturning the pre-match favourite. The model's call for an away win was incorrect, as it had assigned Ballymena United a 42% chance of success. The model's selection, Ballymena United, MISSED its opportunity, while the model's selection, Over 1.5, HIT, with an 84% probability. The actual result was a home win, which was a surprise given the away team's stronger form away from home.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Crusaders FC win✓ Hit
33.0%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.57
Edge
+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.80
Dafabet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Betano
3.65
1xBet
3.56
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 3.87
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.39
888Sport
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Ballymena United win✗ Miss
41.7%
Avg Implied 50.9% · @ 1.79
Edge
-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Dafabet
1.81
888Sport
1.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-603L00D16L11D40W10W32W32W12L12LH·GLE14/03A·POR21/03A·CAR28/03H·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.232.131.401.731.072.53
vs Stronger (7)0.862.140.752.001.002.33
vs Similar (23)1.352.131.641.641.082.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L11D21W22D11D32W00D12L23L30WH·LAR28/02H·POR07/03H·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04A·LIN08/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.601.201.401.271.80
vs Stronger (12)1.081.671.001.801.141.57
vs Similar (18)1.331.561.301.201.382.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
@ 1.17+6.1%
Under 1.5
16.0%
@ 4.13-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.18
Under
888Sport
4.50
Pinnacle
4.48
1xBet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.2%
@ 1.59+4.4%
Under 2.5
37.8%
@ 2.17-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
888Sport
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.9%
@ 2.46+3.0%
Under 3.5
60.1%
@ 1.44-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
10Bet
2.62
Bet365
2.50
888Sport
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.6%
@ 1.56+6.5%
No
35.4%
@ 2.17-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.60
888Sport
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
No
1xBet
2.25
William Hil
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
Bet365
2.20

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%@ 6.71+5.0%
1-2
8.8%@ 7.41+3.1%
2-1 ✓
7.8%@ 10.88+3.9%
2-2
6.6%@ 11.57+2.9%
0-2
5.9%@ 8.90+1.1%
0-1
5.9%@ 8.17+0.6%
0-0
5.1%@ 14.11+2.1%
1-0
5.0%@ 12.38+1.6%
Crusaders FC goals ↓
Ballymena United goals →
01234
05.1%5.9%5.9%3.3%1.4%
15.0%11%8.8%5.0%2.1%
24.6%7.8%6.6%3.8%1.6%
32.3%3.9%3.3%1.9%0.8%
40.9%1.5%1.2%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crusaders FC goals (down), columns = Ballymena United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Crusaders FC is 0.05 points worse than Ballymena United in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Crusaders FC is 0.09 goals better than Ballymena United in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Crusaders FC is 0.60 goals worse than Ballymena United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D12L01L30W00D31W12L01L01LH·GLE14/03A·POR21/03A·CAR28/03H·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.730.800.530.80
vs Stronger (7)0.291.430.251.250.331.67
vs Similar (23)0.740.610.910.640.580.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D00D02L10W11D00D01L13L10WH·LAR28/02H·POR07/03H·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04A·LIN08/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.900.400.870.470.93
vs Stronger (12)0.331.170.401.400.291.00
vs Similar (18)0.500.720.400.600.620.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L00D04L10W10W10W01L20W11D11DH·GLE14/03A·POR21/03A·CAR28/03H·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.330.670.930.531.73
vs Stronger (7)0.570.710.500.750.670.67
vs Similar (23)0.611.520.731.000.502.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D21W20W01L21W00D11D10W20WH·LAR28/02H·POR07/03H·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04A·LIN08/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.700.800.530.800.87
vs Stronger (12)0.750.500.600.400.860.57
vs Similar (18)0.830.830.900.600.751.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.0%1.17
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.18
+6.1%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Ballymena United have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Ballymena United have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Ballymena United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Ballymena United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
CF wins
2
Draws
1
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Crusaders FC vs Ballymena United · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HCF Vs Ballymena United3-2
17/02/26ABallymena United Vs CF2-0
22/11/25ABallymena United Vs CF2-2
20/09/25HCF Vs Ballymena United1-1
15/02/25HCF Vs Ballymena United3-1
26/10/24HCF Vs Ballymena United1-0
20/08/24ABallymena United Vs CF0-1
09/03/24ABallymena United Vs CF2-4

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26ACliftonville FC Vs CF2-1
01/05/26HCF Vs Annagh United1-2
28/04/26AAnnagh United Vs CF2-3
25/04/26HCF Vs Ballymena United3-2
18/04/26AGlenavon FC Vs CF0-1
11/04/26HCF Vs Portadown4-0
07/04/26HCF Vs Bangor1-1
28/03/26ACarrick Rangers Vs CF6-1
21/03/26APortadown Vs CF0-0
14/03/26HCF Vs Glenavon FC0-3

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26ALinfield Vs BU0-3
25/04/26ACrusaders FC Vs BU3-2
18/04/26HBU Vs Portadown1-2
15/04/26HBU Vs Bangor0-0
11/04/26ACarrick Rangers Vs BU2-3
07/04/26HBU Vs Glenavon FC1-1
21/03/26ACliftonville FC Vs BU2-2
14/03/26HBU Vs Carrick Rangers2-1
07/03/26HBU Vs Portadown1-1
28/02/26HBU Vs Larne0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL0.94
HomeLDWWL0.84
AwayDLWWL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%20%32%
AVG goals3.243.283.20
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %62%60%64%
Over 3.5 %44%48%40%
Scored1.221.321.12
Conceded2.021.962.08
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet16%12%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.10
HomeDWDDL1.33
AwayLDWLW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.782.622.92
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.281.381.19
Conceded1.501.251.73
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Coleraine FCColeraine FC410
75%
2.5
81+7
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.2
-
2Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers49
75%
2.2
73+4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.8
-
3Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts49
75%
2.2
63+3
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.50.8
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC49
75%
2.2
86+2
3.5
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.01.5
-
5LinfieldLinfield49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.0
-
6GlentoranGlentoran46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
7Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Ballymena UnitedBallymena United33
33%
1.0
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.3
-
9LarneLarne11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.00.0
-
10Limavady UnitedLimavady United30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.0
-
11PortadownPortadown40
0%
0.0
28-6
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.52.0
-
12BangorBangor30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.03.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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