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Crusaders FC vs Bangor Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Vs
41%
26%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bangor
Bangor
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Crusaders FC are the clear favorites, with a 43% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of a Bangor win. The expected total of goals is 3.1, but the model predicts a 2-goal match most often, with a 12% probability for a 1-1 scoreline. Crusaders, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, average 1.77 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Bangor, on the road, averages 0.93 goals scored and 1.73 conceded versus this tier.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Under 6.5 (96.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.1%), Under 5.5 (91.1%), Home +2 handicap (85.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (83.8%) and Over 1.5 (81.9%). Crusaders are on a two-game winning streak after a 3-2 win over Portadown, while Bangor has suffered four consecutive defeats, most recently losing 0-2 to Dungannon Swifts.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Crusaders FC win
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bangor win
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W10W32W32W12L12L21W32W21WH·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08H·BAL15/08H·POR22/08A·GLE29/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.131.381.751.142.57
vs Stronger (7)0.862.140.752.001.002.33
vs Similar (23)1.392.131.581.671.182.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BangorBangor

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L10W11D00D00D03L24L03L02L04LH·GLE10/03A·DUN21/03A·CRU07/04H·GLE11/04A·BAL15/04H·CAR18/04H·POR25/04H·CLI15/08A·DUN22/08H·CAR29/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.870.672.000.931.73
vs Stronger (4)0.752.500.001.001.003.00
vs Similar (26)0.811.770.712.070.921.42
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.5%
Under 2.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.1%
Under 3.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
2-0
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
Crusaders FC goals ↓
Bangor goals →
01234
05.9%5.7%4.9%2.3%0.8%
16.6%12%7.9%3.8%1.3%
26.2%8.9%6.3%3.0%1.1%
33.3%4.8%3.4%1.6%0.6%
41.3%1.9%1.4%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crusaders FC goals (down), columns = Bangor goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Crusaders FC is 0.05 points worse than Bangor in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Crusaders FC is 0.22 goals better than Bangor in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Crusaders FC is 0.41 goals worse than Bangor in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.71).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Crusaders FC or Draw
67.0%
Avg Implied -
41%
26%
33%
covers Crusaders FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC or Bangor
73.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
26%
33%
covers Crusaders FC + Bangor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bangor
59.2%
Avg Implied -
41%
26%
33%
covers Draw + Bangor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5
Over
80.0%
Under
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5
Over
76.1%
Under
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Crusaders FC, so a minus line means Crusaders FC give that many goals of a start and Bangor receive them. At -1, Crusaders FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Crusaders FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC -2
8.7%
Draw -2
12.6%
Bangor +2
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC -1
21.2%
Draw -1
19.6%
Bangor +1
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC +1
67.0%
Draw +1
17.3%
Bangor -1
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC +2
84.3%
Draw +2
9.9%
Bangor -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W00D31W12L01L01L21W20W10WH·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08H·BAL15/08H·POR22/08A·GLE29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.810.810.570.86
vs Stronger (7)0.291.430.251.250.331.67
vs Similar (23)0.830.651.000.670.640.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BangorBangor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W00D00D02L12L02L01L01LH·GLE10/03A·DUN21/03A·CRU07/04H·GLE11/04A·BAL15/04H·CAR18/04H·POR25/04H·CLI15/08A·DUN22/08H·CAR29/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.930.200.930.530.93
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.000.000.331.33
vs Similar (26)0.380.920.211.000.580.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W10W01L20W11D11D00D12L11DH·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08H·BAL15/08H·POR22/08A·GLE29/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.300.560.940.571.71
vs Stronger (7)0.570.710.500.750.670.67
vs Similar (23)0.571.480.581.000.552.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BangorBangor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D01L00D00D01L12L01L01L03LH·GLE10/03A·DUN21/03A·CRU07/04H·GLE11/04A·BAL15/04H·CAR18/04H·POR25/04H·CLI15/08A·DUN22/08H·CAR29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.930.471.070.400.80
vs Stronger (4)0.501.500.001.000.671.67
vs Similar (26)0.420.850.501.070.330.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.7%-------
Under 6.596.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals92.0%-------
Under 5.591.2%-------
Home +2 handicap84.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals82.6%-------
Over 1.581.8%-------
Under 4.580.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals80.0%-------
Away +2 handicap78.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals78.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals76.1%-------
Home or Away73.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Bangor have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Bangor have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Bangor have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Bangor have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
CF wins
2
Draws
1
BAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Crusaders FC vs Bangor · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/26HCF Vs Bangor1-1
14/02/26HCF Vs Bangor2-2
18/10/25ABangor Vs CF2-1
19/08/25ABangor Vs CF1-3

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AGlentoran Vs CF1-2
22/08/26HCF Vs Portadown3-2
15/08/26HCF Vs Ballymena United2-1
07/08/26ACliftonville FC Vs CF2-1
01/05/26HCF Vs Annagh United1-2
28/04/26AAnnagh United Vs CF2-3
25/04/26HCF Vs Ballymena United3-2
18/04/26AGlenavon FC Vs CF0-1
11/04/26HCF Vs Portadown4-0
07/04/26HCF Vs Bangor1-1

BangorBangor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HBAN Vs Carrick Rangers0-4
22/08/26ADungannon Swifts Vs BAN2-0
15/08/26HBAN Vs Cliftonville FC0-3
25/04/26HBAN Vs Portadown2-4
18/04/26HBAN Vs Carrick Rangers0-3
15/04/26ABallymena United Vs BAN0-0
11/04/26HBAN Vs Glenavon FC0-0
07/04/26ACrusaders FC Vs BAN1-1
21/03/26ADungannon Swifts Vs BAN0-1
10/03/26HBAN Vs Glentoran0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.04
HomeWWLWW1.04
AwayLWWLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%28%32%
AVG goals3.363.443.28
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %46%52%40%
Scored1.321.481.16
Conceded2.041.962.12
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet14%12%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Bangor
Bangor
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.08
HomeDLLLL1.04
AwayDWDDL1.13
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%30%26%
AVG goals2.903.152.61
Over 1.5 %80%85%74%
Over 2.5 %56%67%43%
Over 3.5 %38%44%30%
Scored1.161.191.13
Conceded1.741.961.48
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet18%11%26%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Coleraine FCColeraine FC410
75%
2.5
81+7
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.2
-
2Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers49
75%
2.2
73+4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.8
-
3Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts49
75%
2.2
63+3
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.50.8
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC49
75%
2.2
86+2
3.5
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.01.5
-
5LinfieldLinfield49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.0
-
6GlentoranGlentoran46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
7Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Ballymena UnitedBallymena United33
33%
1.0
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.3
-
9LarneLarne11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.00.0
-
10Limavady UnitedLimavady United30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.0
-
11PortadownPortadown40
0%
0.0
28-6
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.52.0
-
12BangorBangor30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.03.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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