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Crusaders FC vs Carrick Rangers Result & Analysis

Date: 25/03/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 3-0
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Vs
71%
19%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Crusaders FC win✓ Hit
71.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers win✗ Miss
10.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W00D20W02L30W22D20W00D22D22DH·NEW14/01A·LAR21/01H·LIN24/01A·GLE30/01H·DUN11/02A·GLE14/02H·COL18/02A·BAL25/02H·CLI13/03A·POR18/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.102.470.731.271.47
vs Stronger (6)1.001.001.670.670.331.33
vs Similar (24)2.081.122.670.751.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D20W10W02L23L31W15L10W04LA·COL24/01H·GLE28/01A·NEW10/02H·BAL14/02A·LIN18/02H·LAR25/02A·POR04/03H·GLE07/03A·DUN11/03H·GLE18/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.931.441.941.001.93
vs Stronger (14)0.792.431.252.750.172.00
vs Similar (16)1.621.501.621.121.621.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.4%
2-1
9.5%
3-0 ✓
9.0%
1-1
8.8%
1-0
8.7%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
5.4%
0-0
4.8%
Crusaders FC goals ↓
Carrick Rangers goals →
01234
04.8%2.5%1.4%0.4%0.1%
18.7%8.8%3.3%0.9%0.2%
211%9.5%4.0%1.1%0.2%
39.0%7.6%3.2%0.9%0.2%
45.4%4.5%1.9%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crusaders FC goals (down), columns = Carrick Rangers goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Linfield
2.03
Glentoran
2.00
Cliftonville FC
1.77
Crusaders FC
1.76
Coleraine FC
1.59
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.33
Carrick Rangers
1.05
Ballymena United
1.03
Dungannon Swifts
0.82
Newry City AFC
0.71
Portadown
0.68
Crusaders FC is 0.71 points better than Carrick Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 1.05).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glentoran
2.10
Linfield
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.89
Cliftonville FC
1.70
Larne
1.68
Coleraine FC
1.54
Glenavon FC
1.49
Carrick Rangers
1.18
Annagh United
1.00
Ballymena United
0.97
Newry City AFC
0.92
Portadown
0.84
Dungannon Swifts
0.78
Crusaders FC is 0.71 goals better than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.18).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.58
Glentoran
0.70
Linfield
0.71
Coleraine FC
1.05
Crusaders FC
1.18
Cliftonville FC
1.40
Ballymena United
1.45
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.69
Carrick Rangers
1.95
Newry City AFC
1.95
Dungannon Swifts
2.15
Portadown
2.26
Crusaders FC is 0.76 goals better than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.95).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D10W00D10W00D10W00D11D01LH·NEW14/01A·LAR21/01H·LIN24/01A·GLE30/01H·DUN11/02A·GLE14/02H·COL18/02A·BAL25/02H·CLI13/03A·POR18/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.531.070.270.470.80
vs Stronger (6)0.170.670.330.000.001.33
vs Similar (24)0.920.501.250.330.580.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W10W00D00D11D02L10W00DA·COL24/01H·GLE28/01A·NEW10/02H·BAL14/02A·LIN18/02H·LAR25/02A·POR04/03H·GLE07/03A·DUN11/03H·GLE18/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.500.690.431.00
vs Stronger (14)0.210.930.380.880.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.690.750.620.500.751.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D10W02L20W22D10W00D11D21WH·NEW14/01A·LAR21/01H·LIN24/01A·GLE30/01H·DUN11/02A·GLE14/02H·COL18/02A·BAL25/02H·CLI13/03A·POR18/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.571.400.470.800.67
vs Stronger (6)0.830.331.330.670.330.00
vs Similar (24)1.170.621.420.420.920.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D10W00D02L23L20W13L00D04LA·COL24/01H·GLE28/01A·NEW10/02H·BAL14/02A·LIN18/02H·LAR25/02A·POR04/03H·GLE07/03A·DUN11/03H·GLE18/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.100.941.250.570.93
vs Stronger (14)0.571.500.881.880.171.00
vs Similar (16)0.940.751.000.620.880.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.0%-------✓ Hit
Home win71.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Crusaders FC and Carrick Rangers have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Carrick Rangers have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Carrick Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Crusaders FC and Carrick Rangers have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
CF wins
0
Draws
1
CR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Crusaders FC vs Carrick Rangers · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
02/01/23ACarrick Rangers Vs CF0-3
01/10/22ACarrick Rangers Vs CF4-3

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/23APortadown Vs CF2-2
13/03/23HCF Vs Cliftonville FC2-2
25/02/23ABallymena United Vs CF0-0
18/02/23HCF Vs Coleraine FC2-0
14/02/23AGlenavon FC Vs CF2-2
11/02/23HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts3-0
30/01/23AGlentoran Vs CF2-0
24/01/23HCF Vs Linfield2-0
21/01/23ALarne Vs CF0-0
14/01/23HCF Vs Newry City AFC3-1

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/23HCR Vs Glentoran0-4
11/03/23ADungannon Swifts Vs CR0-1
07/03/23HCR Vs Glentoran1-5
04/03/23APortadown Vs CR1-3
25/02/23HCR Vs Larne2-3
18/02/23ALinfield Vs CR2-0
14/02/23HCR Vs Ballymena United1-0
10/02/23ANewry City AFC Vs CR0-2
28/01/23HCR Vs Glenavon FC1-1
24/01/23AColeraine FC Vs CR1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDDD1.75
HomeWWWWD2.50
AwayDLDDD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%78%22%
AVG goals3.063.332.78
Over 1.5 %86%94%78%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %39%44%33%
Scored1.862.561.17
Conceded1.190.781.61
BTTS53%56%50%
Clean Sheet36%39%33%
Corners9.759.0010.50
Cards6.506.506.50
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.16
HomeDWLLL1.35
AwayLWLWW0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%41%27%
AVG goals3.223.353.07
Over 1.5 %75%82%67%
Over 2.5 %56%59%53%
Over 3.5 %44%35%53%
Scored1.281.471.07
Conceded1.941.882.00
BTTS47%47%47%
Clean Sheet25%24%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
6422+42
2.3
68%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.70.6
-
2GlentoranGlentoran4080
62%
2.0
8428+56
2.8
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
3LinfieldLinfield3877
61%
2.0
7527+48
2.7
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.00.7
-
4Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4071
52%
1.8
6856+12
3.1
80%
68%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.71.4
-
5Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3867
50%
1.8
7245+27
3.1
84%
66%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.91.2
-
6Coleraine FCColeraine FC3962
46%
1.6
6041+19
2.6
74%
51%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.1
-
7Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3952
36%
1.3
5866-8
3.2
77%
64%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.7
-
8Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3840
32%
1.1
4574-29
3.1
76%
55%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.9
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
29%
1.0
3755-18
2.4
68%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.4
-
10Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4033
25%
0.8
3186-55
2.9
85%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0110.82.1
-
11Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3827
21%
0.7
3574-39
2.9
79%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
12PortadownPortadown3826
18%
0.7
3286-54
3.1
82%
61%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.82.3
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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