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Crusaders FC vs Carrick Rangers Result & Analysis

Date: 09/08/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 3-4
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Vs
45%
25%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Crusaders FC win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers win✓ Hit
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L11D10W13L22D04L30W01L01LA·GLE22/02H·LIN07/03H·LOU15/03A·GLE22/03A·LIN01/04H·LAR05/04H·GLE12/04H·COL19/04A·DUN26/04A·COL07/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.531.671.930.731.13
vs Stronger (8)1.122.001.252.501.001.50
vs Similar (22)1.231.361.821.730.641.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D03L13L41W11D22D04L52W31WA·POR08/03H·GLE15/03A·CLI22/03H·CLI01/04H·POR05/04A·BAL12/04A·LOU19/04H·GLE26/04A·ANN29/04H·ANN02/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.371.001.061.071.71
vs Stronger (14)1.071.641.121.381.002.00
vs Similar (16)1.001.120.880.751.121.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.1%
Under 2.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 3.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.7%
No
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
1-0
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
4.7%
Crusaders FC goals ↓
Carrick Rangers goals →
01234
04.7%4.4%4.0%2.0%0.7%
15.7%11%7.3%3.6%1.3%
26.2%9.1%6.7%3.3%1.2%
33.7%5.5%4.1%2.0%0.7%
41.7%2.5%1.9%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crusaders FC goals (down), columns = Carrick Rangers goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Crusaders FC is 0.38 points worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.36).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Crusaders FC is 0.37 goals worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.67).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Crusaders FC is 0.56 goals worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.56).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D01L01L02L10W00D01LA·GLE22/02H·LIN07/03H·LOU15/03A·GLE22/03A·LIN01/04H·LAR05/04H·GLE12/04H·COL19/04A·DUN26/04A·COL07/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.630.530.730.470.53
vs Stronger (8)0.380.750.250.750.500.75
vs Similar (22)0.550.590.640.730.450.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D01L11D31W00D11D01L40W11DA·POR08/03H·GLE15/03A·CLI22/03H·CLI01/04H·POR05/04A·BAL12/04A·LOU19/04H·GLE26/04A·ANN29/04H·ANN02/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.370.690.250.430.50
vs Stronger (14)0.710.360.750.250.670.50
vs Similar (16)0.440.380.620.250.250.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L11D10W12L21W02L20W01L00DA·GLE22/02H·LIN07/03H·LOU15/03A·GLE22/03A·LIN01/04H·LAR05/04H·GLE12/04H·COL19/04A·DUN26/04A·COL07/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.901.131.200.270.60
vs Stronger (8)0.751.251.001.750.500.75
vs Similar (22)0.680.771.181.000.180.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D02L02L10W11D11D03L12L20WA·POR08/03H·GLE15/03A·CLI22/03H·CLI01/04H·POR05/04A·BAL12/04A·LOU19/04H·GLE26/04A·ANN29/04H·ANN02/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.000.310.810.641.21
vs Stronger (14)0.361.290.381.120.331.50
vs Similar (16)0.560.750.250.500.881.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Crusaders FC and Carrick Rangers have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Carrick Rangers have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Carrick Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Crusaders FC and Carrick Rangers have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
CF wins
1
Draws
1
CR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Crusaders FC vs Carrick Rangers · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
30/12/24ACarrick Rangers Vs CF0-0
16/11/24ACarrick Rangers Vs CF3-0
31/08/24HCF Vs Carrick Rangers2-1
01/05/24HCF Vs Carrick Rangers3-1
30/12/23HCF Vs Carrick Rangers2-0
08/12/23ACarrick Rangers Vs CF0-1
22/08/23HCF Vs Carrick Rangers9-0
25/03/23HCF Vs Carrick Rangers3-0

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/25AColeraine FC Vs CF1-0
26/04/25ADungannon Swifts Vs CF1-0
19/04/25HCF Vs Coleraine FC3-0
12/04/25HCF Vs Glentoran0-4
05/04/25HCF Vs Larne2-2
01/04/25ALinfield Vs CF3-1
22/03/25AGlentoran Vs CF0-1
15/03/25HCF Vs Loughgall1-1
07/03/25HCF Vs Linfield0-2
22/02/25AGlenavon FC Vs CF0-1

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/25HCR Vs Annagh United3-1
29/04/25AAnnagh United Vs CR2-5
26/04/25HCR Vs Glenavon FC0-4
19/04/25ALoughgall Vs CR2-2
12/04/25ABallymena United Vs CR1-1
05/04/25HCR Vs Portadown4-1
01/04/25HCR Vs Cliftonville FC1-3
22/03/25ACliftonville FC Vs CR3-0
15/03/25HCR Vs Glentoran0-0
08/03/25APortadown Vs CR1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.52
HomeLDDLW1.58
AwayWWLLL1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%46%46%
AVG goals2.643.351.88
Over 1.5 %70%92%46%
Over 2.5 %52%73%29%
Over 3.5 %34%50%17%
Scored1.281.650.88
Conceded1.361.691.00
BTTS48%73%21%
Clean Sheet28%12%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.08
HomeDLWLW1.28
AwayLLDDW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals2.762.403.12
Over 1.5 %74%60%88%
Over 2.5 %60%52%68%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.181.161.20
Conceded1.581.241.92
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet22%36%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
7326+47
2.6
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.90.7
-
2Coleraine FCColeraine FC3880
66%
2.1
8337+46
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.21.0
-
3GlentoranGlentoran3877
61%
2.0
7338+35
2.9
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
4LinfieldLinfield3969
51%
1.8
6434+30
2.5
72%
49%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.60.9
-
5Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3953
38%
1.4
6561+4
3.2
82%
62%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.71.6
-
6Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3953
38%
1.4
5661-5
3.0
77%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.6
-
7Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4152
41%
1.3
4882-34
3.2
83%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.22.0
-
8PortadownPortadown3844
34%
1.2
4466-22
2.9
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.7
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
26%
1.0
4658-12
2.7
89%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.5
-
10BangorBangor3839
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.8
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.7
-
11Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4039
28%
1.0
5285-33
3.4
85%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.32.1
-
12Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3828
21%
0.7
3769-32
2.8
79%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.8
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
44+0
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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