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Crusaders FC vs Dungannon Swifts Result & Analysis

Date: 11/01/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 1-5
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Vs
42%
27%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Crusaders FC win✗ Miss
41.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts win✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W03L21W22D13L13L01L20W00D13LH·LOU09/11A·CAR16/11A·COL24/11H·DUN30/11H·GLE13/12A·GLE17/12A·POR21/12H·CLI26/12A·CAR30/12H·LAR07/01
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.371.751.500.861.21
vs Stronger (3)1.332.331.503.001.001.00
vs Similar (27)1.331.261.791.290.851.23
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L14L14L20W10W22D10W01L01L21WH·LOU26/10A·COL02/11H·CLI09/11H·GLE16/11A·CAR23/11A·CRU30/11A·BAL14/12H·LIN17/12H·LAR23/12H·LOU26/12
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.071.530.941.231.23
vs Stronger (7)0.711.430.251.251.331.67
vs Similar (23)1.610.961.920.851.201.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
7.2%
2-0
6.6%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
6.0%
Crusaders FC goals ↓
Dungannon Swifts goals →
01234
06.4%6.0%4.8%2.2%0.7%
17.2%12%7.7%3.5%1.2%
26.6%9.0%6.1%2.8%0.9%
33.5%4.8%3.2%1.5%0.5%
41.4%1.9%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crusaders FC goals (down), columns = Dungannon Swifts goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Linfield
2.24
Larne
1.66
Cliftonville FC
1.60
Glentoran
1.56
Dungannon Swifts
1.50
Portadown
1.47
Coleraine FC
1.45
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.24
Glenavon FC
1.21
Carrick Rangers
0.95
Loughgall
0.58
Annagh United
0.00
Crusaders FC is 0.12 points worse than Dungannon Swifts in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.50).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Linfield
1.82
Cliftonville FC
1.55
Annagh United
1.50
Coleraine FC
1.40
Dungannon Swifts
1.34
Portadown
1.26
Glentoran
1.26
Ballymena United
1.24
Larne
1.21
Crusaders FC
1.21
Glenavon FC
1.11
Carrick Rangers
1.00
Loughgall
0.95
Crusaders FC is 0.14 goals worse than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.34).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Linfield
0.74
Larne
0.87
Glentoran
1.00
Cliftonville FC
1.02
Portadown
1.18
Glenavon FC
1.24
Dungannon Swifts
1.26
Coleraine FC
1.30
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.42
Carrick Rangers
1.55
Loughgall
2.24
Annagh United
4.00
Crusaders FC is 0.12 goals worse than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.26).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W02L20W02L10W11D00D00D00D11DH·LOU09/11A·CAR16/11A·COL24/11H·DUN30/11H·GLE13/12A·GLE17/12A·POR21/12H·CLI26/12A·CAR30/12H·LAR07/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.690.750.500.57
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.501.000.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.630.670.710.710.540.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L13L10W00D20W00D00D00D10WH·LOU26/10A·COL02/11H·CLI09/11H·GLE16/11A·CAR23/11A·CRU30/11A·BAL14/12H·LIN17/12H·LAR23/12H·LOU26/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.330.880.290.540.38
vs Stronger (7)0.290.710.250.500.331.00
vs Similar (23)0.870.221.080.230.600.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %83% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L01L20W03L02L01L20W00D02LH·LOU09/11A·CAR16/11A·COL24/11H·DUN30/11H·GLE13/12A·GLE17/12A·POR21/12H·CLI26/12A·CAR30/12H·LAR07/01
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.701.060.750.360.64
vs Stronger (3)1.001.671.002.001.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.700.591.070.570.310.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L13L01L10W10W02L10W01L01L11DH·LOU26/10A·COL02/11H·CLI09/11H·GLE16/11A·CAR23/11A·CRU30/11A·BAL14/12H·LIN17/12H·LAR23/12H·LOU26/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.650.650.690.85
vs Stronger (7)0.430.710.000.751.000.67
vs Similar (23)0.740.740.850.620.600.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Crusaders FC's squad is €1m less valuable than Dungannon Swifts's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Dungannon Swifts have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Dungannon Swifts have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Dungannon Swifts have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
CF wins
2
Draws
1
DS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Crusaders FC vs Dungannon Swifts · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/24HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts2-2
17/09/24ADungannon Swifts Vs CF1-0
10/02/24ADungannon Swifts Vs CF2-2
21/10/23ADungannon Swifts Vs CF1-4
15/08/23HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts2-0
11/02/23HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts3-0
29/10/22ADungannon Swifts Vs CF0-2
13/08/22HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts5-1

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/01/25HCF Vs Larne1-3
30/12/24ACarrick Rangers Vs CF0-0
26/12/24HCF Vs Cliftonville FC2-0
21/12/24APortadown Vs CF1-0
17/12/24AGlenavon FC Vs CF3-1
13/12/24HCF Vs Glentoran1-3
30/11/24HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts2-2
24/11/24AColeraine FC Vs CF1-2
16/11/24ACarrick Rangers Vs CF3-0
09/11/24HCF Vs Loughgall3-1

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/12/24HDS Vs Loughgall2-1
23/12/24HDS Vs Larne0-1
17/12/24HDS Vs Linfield0-1
14/12/24ABallymena United Vs DS0-1
30/11/24ACrusaders FC Vs DS2-2
23/11/24ACarrick Rangers Vs DS0-1
16/11/24HDS Vs Glenavon FC2-0
09/11/24HDS Vs Cliftonville FC1-4
02/11/24AColeraine FC Vs DS4-1
26/10/24HDS Vs Loughgall1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.52
HomeWDLWL1.48
AwayLWLLD1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%44%48%
AVG goals2.582.882.28
Over 1.5 %72%88%56%
Over 2.5 %52%60%44%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.281.441.12
Conceded1.301.441.16
BTTS48%64%32%
Clean Sheet26%16%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW1.52
HomeLWLLW1.67
AwayLLWDW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%39%
AVG goals2.982.963.00
Over 1.5 %80%78%83%
Over 2.5 %56%56%57%
Over 3.5 %36%41%30%
Scored1.561.671.43
Conceded1.421.301.57
BTTS52%44%61%
Clean Sheet32%41%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LinfieldLinfield3885
71%
2.2
6928+41
2.6
71%
55%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.7
-
2Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4064
48%
1.6
6241+21
2.6
78%
45%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.0
-
3LarneLarne3863
45%
1.7
4633+13
2.1
66%
34%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
4GlentoranGlentoran3961
44%
1.6
4939+10
2.3
67%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.0
-
5Coleraine FCColeraine FC4058
40%
1.4
5652+4
2.7
80%
55%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
-
6Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3857
45%
1.5
5148+3
2.6
71%
42%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.31.3
-
7PortadownPortadown3856
42%
1.5
4845+3
2.4
76%
42%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.2
-
8Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3954
41%
1.4
4754-7
2.6
67%
51%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.4
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3847
37%
1.2
4754-7
2.7
66%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.4
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3846
32%
1.2
4247-5
2.3
71%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
11Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers4038
22%
0.9
4062-22
2.5
70%
55%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.6
-
12LoughgallLoughgall3822
13%
0.6
3685-49
3.2
82%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United20
0%
0.0
38-5
5.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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