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Crusaders FC vs Dungannon Swifts Prediction & Stats

Date: 15/09/2026
Time: 18:45
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Vs
47%
24%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Crusaders FC, riding a two-game winning streak, look poised to outscore Dungannon Swifts, who have mirrored the same form. The model favours a home win, with a 51 % chance versus a 24 % draw and 25 % away victory. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6 % probability. Crusaders average 1.77 goals scored and 1.62 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Dungannon’s away record shows 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2 %), Under 6.5 (94.8 %), Home +2 handicap (88.8 %), Under 5.5 (88.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (86.3 %), Home over 0.5 goals (86.0 %) and Over 1.5 (85.2 %).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Crusaders FC win
47.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts win
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W10W32W32W12L12L21W32W21WH·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08H·BAL15/08H·POR22/08A·GLE29/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.131.381.751.142.57
vs Stronger (7)0.862.140.752.001.002.33
vs Similar (23)1.392.131.581.671.182.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-805L01L08L31W21W13L13L10W20W20WA·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04A·LAR25/04H·CAR06/05A·CLI09/05A·LIN12/05H·COL08/08A·POR15/08H·BAN22/08A·CLI29/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.031.641.640.942.38
vs Stronger (10)0.603.500.752.750.504.00
vs Similar (20)1.601.302.001.201.201.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.0%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.1%
3-1
5.8%
0-0
4.8%
Crusaders FC goals ↓
Dungannon Swifts goals →
01234
04.8%4.3%3.7%1.8%0.6%
16.1%11%7.0%3.3%1.1%
26.6%9.3%6.5%3.1%1.1%
34.1%5.8%4.1%1.9%0.7%
41.9%2.7%1.9%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crusaders FC goals (down), columns = Dungannon Swifts goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Crusaders FC is 0.29 points worse than Dungannon Swifts in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Crusaders FC is 0.13 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Crusaders FC is 0.12 goals worse than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Crusaders FC or Draw
72.0%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
28%
covers Crusaders FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC or Dungannon Swifts
75.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
28%
covers Crusaders FC + Dungannon Swifts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dungannon Swifts
52.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
28%
covers Draw + Dungannon Swifts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5
Over
84.6%
Under
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5
Over
28.8%
Under
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 3.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Crusaders FC, so a minus line means Crusaders FC give that many goals of a start and Dungannon Swifts receive them. At -1, Crusaders FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Crusaders FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC -2
12.4%
Draw -2
14.7%
Dungannon Swifts +2
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC -1
27.0%
Draw -1
20.5%
Dungannon Swifts +1
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC +1
72.0%
Draw +1
15.1%
Dungannon Swifts -1
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC +2
87.1%
Draw +2
8.3%
Dungannon Swifts -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W00D31W12L01L01L21W20W10WH·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08H·BAL15/08H·POR22/08A·GLE29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.810.810.570.86
vs Stronger (7)0.291.430.251.250.331.67
vs Similar (23)0.830.651.000.670.640.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D03L11D11D01L01L10W10W00DA·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04A·LAR25/04H·CAR06/05A·CLI09/05A·LIN12/05H·COL08/08A·POR15/08H·BAN22/08A·CLI29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.901.070.640.251.12
vs Stronger (10)0.301.500.751.000.001.83
vs Similar (20)0.800.601.200.500.400.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W10W01L20W11D11D00D12L11DH·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08H·BAL15/08H·POR22/08A·GLE29/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.300.560.940.571.71
vs Stronger (7)0.570.710.500.750.670.67
vs Similar (23)0.571.480.581.000.552.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L01L05L20W10W12L12L00D10W20WA·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04A·LAR25/04H·CAR06/05A·CLI09/05A·LIN12/05H·COL08/08A·POR15/08H·BAN22/08A·CLI29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.130.571.000.691.25
vs Stronger (10)0.302.000.001.750.502.17
vs Similar (20)0.800.700.800.700.800.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.1%-------
Under 6.595.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.6%-------
Under 5.588.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals88.0%-------
Home +2 handicap87.1%-------
Over 1.584.8%-------
Home over 0.5 goals84.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals83.2%-------
Under 4.576.8%-------
Home or Away75.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals75.5%-------
Away +2 handicap73.0%-------
Home or Draw72.0%-------
Home +1 handicap72.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals71.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Crusaders FC's squad is €1m less valuable than Dungannon Swifts's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Dungannon Swifts have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Dungannon Swifts have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Dungannon Swifts have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
CF wins
2
Draws
4
DS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Crusaders FC vs Dungannon Swifts · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
03/01/26HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts2-0
01/11/25ADungannon Swifts Vs CF2-0
13/09/25ADungannon Swifts Vs CF0-3
26/04/25ADungannon Swifts Vs CF1-0
11/01/25HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts1-5
30/11/24HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts2-2
17/09/24ADungannon Swifts Vs CF1-0
10/02/24ADungannon Swifts Vs CF2-2

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AGlentoran Vs CF1-2
22/08/26HCF Vs Portadown3-2
15/08/26HCF Vs Ballymena United2-1
07/08/26ACliftonville FC Vs CF2-1
01/05/26HCF Vs Annagh United1-2
28/04/26AAnnagh United Vs CF2-3
25/04/26HCF Vs Ballymena United3-2
18/04/26AGlenavon FC Vs CF0-1
11/04/26HCF Vs Portadown4-0
07/04/26HCF Vs Bangor1-1

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ACliftonville FC Vs DS0-2
22/08/26HDS Vs Bangor2-0
15/08/26APortadown Vs DS0-1
08/08/26HDS Vs Coleraine FC1-3
12/05/26ALinfield Vs DS3-1
09/05/26ACliftonville FC Vs DS1-2
06/05/26HDS Vs Carrick Rangers3-1
25/04/26ALarne Vs DS8-0
18/04/26ACliftonville FC Vs DS1-0
11/04/26AGlentoran Vs DS5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.04
HomeWWLWW1.04
AwayLWWLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%28%32%
AVG goals3.363.443.28
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %46%52%40%
Scored1.321.481.16
Conceded2.041.962.12
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet14%12%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.40
HomeLLWLW1.68
AwayLWLWW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%56%36%
AVG goals2.983.002.96
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %34%40%28%
Scored1.181.520.84
Conceded1.801.482.12
BTTS40%52%28%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Coleraine FCColeraine FC410
75%
2.5
81+7
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.2
-
2Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers49
75%
2.2
73+4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.8
-
3Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts49
75%
2.2
63+3
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.50.8
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC49
75%
2.2
86+2
3.5
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.01.5
-
5LinfieldLinfield49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.0
-
6GlentoranGlentoran46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
7Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Ballymena UnitedBallymena United33
33%
1.0
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.3
-
9LarneLarne11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.00.0
-
10Limavady UnitedLimavady United30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.0
-
11PortadownPortadown40
0%
0.0
28-6
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.52.0
-
12BangorBangor30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.03.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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