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Crusaders FC vs Larne Result & Analysis

Date: 14/04/2023
Time: 18:45
Final 0-2
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Vs
43%
29%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Larne
Larne
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Crusaders FC win✗ Miss
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larne win✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L30W22D20W00D22D22D30W00D31WA·GLE30/01H·DUN11/02A·GLE14/02H·COL18/02A·BAL25/02H·CLI13/03A·POR18/03H·CAR25/03A·LIN07/04H·COL11/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.032.670.671.131.40
vs Stronger (6)0.830.832.000.500.251.00
vs Similar (24)2.171.082.770.691.451.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LarneLarne

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W30W21W30W32W00D10W00D20W20WH·GLE10/02A·DUN14/02H·CLI18/02A·BAL21/02A·CAR25/02H·LIN07/03H·BAL17/03A·COL25/03H·GLE07/04A·CLI11/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.800.531.870.331.730.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.380.921.670.501.141.29
vs Weaker (17)2.120.242.000.222.250.25
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.3%
Under 2.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.3%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.9%
0-2 ✓
4.9%
Crusaders FC goals ↓
Larne goals →
01234
09.6%7.8%4.9%1.8%0.5%
110%14%6.9%2.5%0.7%
28.1%8.8%4.8%1.8%0.5%
33.8%4.1%2.2%0.8%0.2%
41.3%1.4%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crusaders FC goals (down), columns = Larne goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Linfield
2.03
Glentoran
2.00
Cliftonville FC
1.77
Crusaders FC
1.76
Coleraine FC
1.59
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.33
Carrick Rangers
1.05
Ballymena United
1.03
Dungannon Swifts
0.82
Newry City AFC
0.71
Portadown
0.68
Crusaders FC is 0.42 points worse than Larne in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 2.18).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glentoran
2.10
Linfield
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.89
Cliftonville FC
1.70
Larne
1.68
Coleraine FC
1.54
Glenavon FC
1.49
Carrick Rangers
1.18
Annagh United
1.00
Ballymena United
0.97
Newry City AFC
0.92
Portadown
0.84
Dungannon Swifts
0.78
Crusaders FC is 0.21 goals better than Larne in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.68).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.58
Glentoran
0.70
Linfield
0.71
Coleraine FC
1.05
Crusaders FC
1.18
Cliftonville FC
1.40
Ballymena United
1.45
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.69
Carrick Rangers
1.95
Newry City AFC
1.95
Dungannon Swifts
2.15
Portadown
2.26
Crusaders FC is 0.61 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 0.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D10W00D10W00D11D01L00D00D01LA·GLE30/01H·DUN11/02A·GLE14/02H·COL18/02A·BAL25/02H·CLI13/03A·POR18/03H·CAR25/03A·LIN07/04H·COL11/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.501.070.270.470.73
vs Stronger (6)0.170.670.500.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.920.461.150.310.640.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LarneLarne

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D10W10W00D00D10W00D20W10WH·GLE10/02A·DUN14/02H·CLI18/02A·BAL21/02A·CAR25/02H·LIN07/03H·BAL17/03A·COL25/03H·GLE07/04A·CLI11/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.171.070.200.400.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.620.310.830.330.430.29
vs Weaker (17)0.820.061.220.110.380.00
Clean sheet %87% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W22D10W00D11D21W30W00D30WA·GLE30/01H·DUN11/02A·GLE14/02H·COL18/02A·BAL25/02H·CLI13/03A·POR18/03H·CAR25/03A·LIN07/04H·COL11/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.531.600.400.670.67
vs Stronger (6)0.670.171.500.500.250.00
vs Similar (24)1.250.621.620.380.820.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LarneLarne

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W11D20W32W00D00D00D00D10WH·GLE10/02A·DUN14/02H·CLI18/02A·BAL21/02A·CAR25/02H·LIN07/03H·BAL17/03A·COL25/03H·GLE07/04A·CLI11/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.370.800.131.330.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.770.620.830.170.711.00
vs Weaker (17)1.290.180.780.111.880.25
Clean sheet %77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.3%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Crusaders FC's squad is €2m less valuable than Larne's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Larne have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Larne have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Crusaders FC's defence is €1m less valuable than Larne's (€1m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
CF wins
2
Draws
1
LAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Crusaders FC vs Larne · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
21/01/23ALarne Vs CF0-0
04/11/22ALarne Vs CF4-1
02/09/22HCF Vs Larne1-1

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/23HCF Vs Coleraine FC3-1
07/04/23ALinfield Vs CF0-0
25/03/23HCF Vs Carrick Rangers3-0
18/03/23APortadown Vs CF2-2
13/03/23HCF Vs Cliftonville FC2-2
25/02/23ABallymena United Vs CF0-0
18/02/23HCF Vs Coleraine FC2-0
14/02/23AGlenavon FC Vs CF2-2
11/02/23HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts3-0
30/01/23AGlentoran Vs CF2-0

LarneLarne

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/23ACliftonville FC Vs LAR0-2
07/04/23HLAR Vs Glentoran2-0
25/03/23AColeraine FC Vs LAR0-0
17/03/23HLAR Vs Ballymena United1-0
07/03/23HLAR Vs Linfield0-0
25/02/23ACarrick Rangers Vs LAR2-3
21/02/23ABallymena United Vs LAR0-3
18/02/23HLAR Vs Cliftonville FC2-1
14/02/23ADungannon Swifts Vs LAR0-3
10/02/23HLAR Vs Glenavon FC3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDW1.79
HomeWWDWW2.55
AwayLDDDD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %51%80%21%
AVG goals3.003.352.63
Over 1.5 %85%95%74%
Over 2.5 %64%75%53%
Over 3.5 %38%45%32%
Scored1.872.601.11
Conceded1.130.751.53
BTTS51%55%47%
Clean Sheet38%40%37%
Corners9.759.0010.50
Cards6.506.506.50
Larne
Larne
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWW2.16
HomeWWDWW2.22
AwayWWWDW2.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %65%67%63%
AVG goals2.162.062.26
Over 1.5 %62%67%58%
Over 2.5 %41%39%42%
Over 3.5 %19%17%21%
Scored1.651.721.58
Conceded0.510.330.68
BTTS22%17%26%
Clean Sheet68%72%63%
Corners9.009.00-
Cards2.002.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
6422+42
2.3
68%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.70.6
-
2GlentoranGlentoran4080
62%
2.0
8428+56
2.8
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
3LinfieldLinfield3877
61%
2.0
7527+48
2.7
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.00.7
-
4Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4071
52%
1.8
6856+12
3.1
80%
68%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.71.4
-
5Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3867
50%
1.8
7245+27
3.1
84%
66%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.91.2
-
6Coleraine FCColeraine FC3962
46%
1.6
6041+19
2.6
74%
51%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.1
-
7Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3952
36%
1.3
5866-8
3.2
77%
64%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.7
-
8Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3840
32%
1.1
4574-29
3.1
76%
55%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.9
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
29%
1.0
3755-18
2.4
68%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.4
-
10Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4033
25%
0.8
3186-55
2.9
85%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0110.82.1
-
11Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3827
21%
0.7
3574-39
2.9
79%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
12PortadownPortadown3826
18%
0.7
3286-54
3.1
82%
61%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.82.3
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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