Larne are tipped to lift the trophy at Crusaders FC, the model’s pick for an away win. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair with an average of 2.8 goals, and the most likely final score is 1-1, a 11.7% chance. Crusaders, playing at home against a stronger side, average 0.75 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Larne, on the road against a weaker opponent, average 2.14 scored and 0.86 conceded. The probabilities for the outcome are 18% home win, 25% draw and 58% away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Away +2 handicap (93.7%), Under 5.5 (93.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.3%) and Under 4.5 (84.8%). Crusaders are on a three-game winning run, having beaten Glentoran 2-1, while Larne return from a 0-2 loss to Lincoln Red Imps FC. The data suggest a tight contest with Larne’s attacking edge likely to tip the scales.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Crusaders FC win
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larne win
58.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Crusaders FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.13
1.38
1.75
1.14
2.57
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.14
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
1.39
2.13
1.58
1.67
1.18
2.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.03
1.60
1.20
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
4.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.65
1.00
0.90
1.29
0.29
vs Weaker (11)
2.64
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.4%
Under 2.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 3.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
0-2
10.7%
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
0-0
7.0%
0-3
6.7%
1-3
6.2%
2-1
4.8%
Crusaders FC goals ↓
Larne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
10%
11%
6.7%
3.2%
1
4.5%
12%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2
2.6%
4.8%
4.6%
2.9%
1.4%
3
0.8%
1.5%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crusaders FC goals (down), columns = Larne goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Crusaders FC is 1.21 points worse than Larne in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 2.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Crusaders FC is 0.62 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Crusaders FC is 1.44 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 0.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Crusaders FC or Draw
41.1%
Avg Implied -
17%
24%
59%
covers Crusaders FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC or Larne
75.9%
Avg Implied -
17%
24%
59%
covers Crusaders FC + Larne
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Larne
83.1%
Avg Implied -
17%
24%
59%
covers Draw + Larne
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 3.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Crusaders FC, so a minus line means Crusaders FC give that many goals of a start and Larne receive them. At -1, Crusaders FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Crusaders FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC -2
1.5%
Draw -2
4.4%
Larne +2
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC -1
5.9%
Draw -1
11.0%
Larne +1
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC +1
41.1%
Draw +1
23.5%
Larne -1
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC +2
64.6%
Draw +2
18.5%
Larne -2
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crusaders FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.81
0.81
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.43
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.65
1.00
0.67
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.18
0.40
0.20
0.43
0.14
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.64
1.75
0.75
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crusaders FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.30
0.56
0.94
0.57
1.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.57
1.48
0.58
1.00
0.55
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.47
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.14
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.36
1.75
0.50
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Crusaders FC's squad is €2m less valuable than Larne's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Larne have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Larne have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC's defence is €1m less valuable than Larne's (€1m vs €2m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor