The contest between Crusaders FC and Limavady United is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 37 % versus 36 % for the visitors and 27 % for a draw. The expected total of goals is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24 % chance, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 with a 12.5 % probability. Crusaders, playing at home against a team of similar strength, average 1.77 goals scored and 1.62 conceded, while Limavady, on the road, average 2.78 scored and 1.22 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Under 6.5 (96.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.7 %), Under 5.5 (92.1 %), Under 4.5 (82.3 %), Home +2 handicap (82.2 %) and Away +2 handicap (81.9 %). These figures paint a picture of a tightly contested match where Crusaders hold a slight edge, but the outcome remains uncertain.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Crusaders FC win
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Limavady United win
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Crusaders FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.13
1.38
1.75
1.14
2.57
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.14
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
1.39
2.13
1.58
1.67
1.18
2.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Limavady United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.03
1.64
1.14
1.94
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
1.08
0.60
1.20
1.57
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.92
1.00
1.00
0.80
2.57
1.14
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
1.00
3.75
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
6.7%
0-1
6.5%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
2-0
5.8%
Crusaders FC goals ↓
Limavady United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.5%
5.6%
2.7%
1.0%
1
6.7%
13%
8.3%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.5%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.9%
4.2%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crusaders FC goals (down), columns = Limavady United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Crusaders FC is 0.01 points better than Limavady United in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 0.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Crusaders FC is 0.28 goals better than Limavady United in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Crusaders FC is 0.10 goals better than Limavady United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 2.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Crusaders FC or Draw
64.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
27%
36%
covers Crusaders FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC or Limavady United
73.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
27%
36%
covers Crusaders FC + Limavady United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Limavady United
62.6%
Avg Implied -
37%
27%
36%
covers Draw + Limavady United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5
Over
77.5%
Under
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 0.5
Over
76.7%
Under
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Crusaders FC, so a minus line means Crusaders FC give that many goals of a start and Limavady United receive them. At -1, Crusaders FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Crusaders FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC -2
7.1%
Draw -2
11.4%
Limavady United +2
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC -1
18.5%
Draw -1
18.9%
Limavady United +1
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC +1
64.2%
Draw +1
18.4%
Limavady United -1
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Crusaders FC)
Crusaders FC +2
82.6%
Draw +2
10.9%
Limavady United -2
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crusaders FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.81
0.81
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.43
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.65
1.00
0.67
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Limavady United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.50
0.00
0.60
0.71
0.43
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.58
0.20
0.60
1.43
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
2.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.6%
Under 0.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.1%
Under 1.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.3%
Under 2.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
62.9%
Under
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crusaders FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.30
0.56
0.94
0.57
1.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.57
1.48
0.58
1.00
0.55
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Limavady United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
0.93
0.64
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.58
0.60
0.60
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.42
0.80
0.20
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.83
1.50
1.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.9%
Under 0.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.5%
Under 1.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.3%
Under 2.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.1%
Under
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Crusaders FC's squad is €1m more valuable than Limavady United's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Limavady United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Limavady United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Crusaders FC and Limavady United have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Portadown
Bangor