Manchester City are the clear favorites to win at Crystal Palace, with a 45% chance of triumph compared to 27% for the hosts and 28% for a draw. The model expects 2.6 goals in total, centring on a 1-1 scoreline that carries a 13.5% probability. Palace, playing at home against a stronger side, average 1.0 goal scored and 2.5 conceded, while City, away against a weaker opponent, average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. The predicted result is an away win, the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.6 goals aligns with a 2-goal total, which has a 26% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%, edge 3%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4%, edge 3%), Under 6.5 (98.4%, edge 4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7%, edge 2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.8%, edge 6%), Under 5.5 (95.3%, edge 5%) and Home under 1.5 HT goals (93.1%, edge 4%).
Results analysis
The Crystal Palace side had been struggling, their last five games marked by two straight defeats, yet the Pythia model still tipped Manchester City to win, a prediction that proved correct as the visitors secured a 1-4 victory. The model’s favourite, the away win, carried a 43% probability, and the result matched expectations. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.8%, Under 5.5 at 95.3%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 93.1%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and every pick’s outcome was noted, with none missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Crystal Palace win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.90
Edge
+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.12
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied 23.7% · @ 4.03
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.21
Dafabet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Pinnacle
4.13
Unibet
4.10
Manchester City win✓ Hit
42.9%
Avg Implied 56.8% · @ 1.68
Edge
-13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
William Hil
1.67
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Crystal Palace
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.33
1.21
0.86
1.06
1.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.75
1.00
2.50
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.25
1.33
0.78
1.18
1.64
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.93
2.27
0.73
1.53
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
0.88
2.33
1.00
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
1.91
0.95
2.25
0.67
1.50
1.30
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
@ 1.21-3.8%
Under 1.5
26.0%
@ 4.24+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.5%
@ 1.69-8.8%
Under 2.5
52.5%
@ 2.18+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
SBO
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
SBO
2.23
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.9%
@ 2.67-9.5%
Under 3.5
74.1%
@ 1.46+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.71
Superbet
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
@ 1.67-2.9%
No
47.0%
@ 2.12+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.69
William Hil
1.67
No
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.16
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 7.41+7.3%
0-1
9.7%@ 7.96+3.8%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.72+2.9%
0-0
8.9%@ 12.82+5.2%
0-2
7.9%@ 8.54+2.4%
1-0
7.4%@ 14.17+4.0%
2-1
7.0%@ 14.17+3.7%
2-2
5.1%@ 13.49+1.6%
Crystal Palace goals ↓
Manchester City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
9.7%
7.9%
3.8%
1.4%
1
7.4%
14%
9.0%
4.3%
1.6%
2
4.9%
7.0%
5.1%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.8%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crystal Palace goals (down), columns = Manchester City goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Crystal Palace is 0.87 points worse than Manchester City in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 2.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Crystal Palace is 0.95 goals worse than Manchester City in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 2.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Crystal Palace is 0.42 goals worse than Manchester City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Crystal Palace is 15.1 percentage points worse than Manchester City in terms of average possession (45% vs 60%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Crystal Palace
For 3.1 · Against 6.7 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester City
For 8.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 11.3 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crystal Palace
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.4
8.9
3.7
3.8
3.6
21.5
22.3
20.7
vs Stronger (8)
8.5
6.7
9.6
2.5
2.7
2.4
19.9
19.0
20.4
vs Similar (33)
8.9
8.7
9.1
3.8
3.8
3.8
21.1
21.9
20.3
vs Weaker (9)
8.1
8.6
7.5
4.6
4.8
4.2
24.3
25.4
23.0
% over line
42%
42%
42%
58%
54%
62%
44%
54%
35%
% under line
58%
58%
58%
42%
46%
38%
56%
46%
65%
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.3
10.0
3.7
3.5
4.0
21.3
20.5
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
10.4
11.6
9.3
4.8
5.2
4.5
24.4
22.0
26.3
vs Weaker (39)
10.1
10.0
10.2
3.4
3.1
3.8
20.4
20.2
20.6
% over line
58%
62%
54%
56%
50%
62%
50%
46%
54%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
44%
50%
38%
50%
54%
46%
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.0
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.4
Liverpool
10.2
Manchester City
10.2
Chelsea
10.0
Tottenham
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Nottingham Forest
9.9
Brighton
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Aston Villa
9.4
Sunderland
9.2
Everton
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.5
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Hull
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Everton
3.6
Coventry
3.6
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leeds
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.8
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.3
Chelsea
22.8
Sunderland
22.7
Tottenham
22.7
Brighton
22.3
Leeds
22.2
Arsenal
22.1
Manchester United
21.7
Newcastle
21.6
Everton
21.5
Crystal Palace
21.5
Coventry
21.3
Liverpool
21.3
Manchester City
21.3
Hull
21.0
Fulham
19.9
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.3%
@ 1.81-4.2%
Under 9.5
52.7%
@ 1.93+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
Unibet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Betfair
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.7%
@ 1.98+5.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
@ 1.76-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
Unibet
2.05
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.77
Unibet
1.66
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
46.6%
@ 1.95-1.0%
Under 21.5
53.4%
@ 1.77+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.69
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Crystal Palace or Draw✗ Miss
48.2%
Avg Implied 43.1% · @ 2.19
Edge
+5.1%
28%
29%
43%
covers Crystal Palace + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Betano
2.20
Crystal Palace or Manchester City✓ Hit
72.8%
Avg Implied 76.5% · @ 1.23
Edge
-3.7%
28%
29%
43%
covers Crystal Palace + Manchester City
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw or Manchester City✓ Hit
79.0%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.18
Edge
-1.4%
28%
29%
43%
covers Draw + Manchester City
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Crystal Palace over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.4%
@ 1.45-2.8%
Under
38.6%
@ 2.60+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Unibet
2.63
Superbet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Crystal Palace over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.6%
@ 3.19-4.7%
Under
75.4%
@ 1.32+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.29
Marathonbet
3.24
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Crystal Palace over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 8.40-4.0%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.06+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.10
Marathonbet
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Crystal Palace over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 21.83-2.8%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Manchester City over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.2%
@ 1.12-3.2%
Under
19.8%
@ 5.62+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.65
Unibet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
Manchester City over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.1%
@ 1.65-8.8%
Under
51.9%
@ 2.17+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
Marathonbet
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Manchester City over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
22.1%
@ 2.99-9.1%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.36+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Manchester City over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
8.1%
@ 6.31-6.7%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.10+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Superbet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Crystal Palace, so a minus line means Crystal Palace give that many goals of a start and Manchester City receive them. At -1, Crystal Palace must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Crystal Palace win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Crystal Palace)Actual: Manchester City
Crystal Palace -2
2.0%
@ 31.00-1.0%
Draw -2
5.6%
@ 14.33-0.9%
Manchester City +2
92.3%
@ 1.04+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
28.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Crystal Palace)Actual: Manchester City
Crystal Palace -1
7.7%
@ 10.60-0.9%
Draw -1
13.4%
@ 6.50-0.6%
Manchester City +1
79.0%
@ 1.17+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.40
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Unibet
6.25
Away
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Handicap +1 (Crystal Palace)Actual: Manchester City
Crystal Palace +1
48.2%
@ 2.17+6.6%
Draw +1
23.5%
@ 3.60-1.6%
Manchester City -1
28.2%
@ 2.71-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Unibet
2.17
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Away
Betfair
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Handicap +2 (Crystal Palace)Actual: Manchester City
Crystal Palace +2
71.8%
@ 1.41+7.8%
Draw +2
16.3%
@ 4.72-2.9%
Manchester City -2
12.0%
@ 5.33-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.36
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.80
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Away
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.10
Unibet
5.10
Marathonbet
4.95
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crystal Palace
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.57
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.70
0.67
0.67
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.40
0.27
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.32
1.42
0.17
0.70
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.0%
@ 1.31-1.6%
Under 0.5
30.0%
@ 3.33+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.8%
@ 2.47-2.3%
Under 1.5
64.2%
@ 1.52+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
SBO
2.53
1xBet
2.52
Pinnacle
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Under
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.54
SBO
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.8%
@ 5.82-3.3%
Under 2.5
87.2%
@ 1.11+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.70
Under
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crystal Palace over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.9%
@ 2.50-2.4%
Under
65.1%
@ 1.48+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.63
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.49
Superbet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Crystal Palace over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 8.70-3.7%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.04+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.10
Superbet
8.60
Unibet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Crystal Palace over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 25.00-3.0%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Manchester City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
59.1%
@ 1.64+2.1%
Under
40.9%
@ 2.16-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
Unibet
1.61
Superbet
1.59
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.14
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.07
Manchester City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.3%
@ 4.06-5.4%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.20+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Under
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Manchester City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 9.62-5.5%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crystal Palace
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.71
0.29
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.55
0.67
0.11
0.36
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
0.87
0.47
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.60
0.20
vs Weaker (22)
0.82
0.64
0.83
0.50
0.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.4%
@ 1.19-0.6%
Under 0.5
21.6%
@ 4.46+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Under
Superbet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.60
Unibet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.2%
@ 1.88-1.9%
Under 1.5
51.8%
@ 1.88+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.88
William Hil
1.85
Under
Marathonbet
1.92
Unibet
1.90
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.6%
@ 3.75-6.4%
Under 2.5
81.4%
@ 1.25+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
Under
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crystal Palace over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
42.6%
@ 2.06-2.6%
Under
57.4%
@ 1.70+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.08
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Crystal Palace over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 6.36-3.6%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.08+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.55
Superbet
6.30
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Crystal Palace over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 17.00-2.3%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Manchester City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
64.1%
@ 1.44-0.7%
Under
35.9%
@ 2.64+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Under
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Superbet
2.62
Manchester City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
25.5%
@ 2.98-5.6%
Under
74.5%
@ 1.34+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Betano
2.95
Under
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Manchester City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
8.1%
@ 7.40-4.4%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.06+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.50
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.8%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.2%
1.16
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
+7.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.11
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.7%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
80.2%
1.12
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
79.0%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
79.0%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.19
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
77.9%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
+9.1%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
1.34
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.4%
1.32
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.5%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
-
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.1%
1.46
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.0%
1.21
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.1%
1.45
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.42
-
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.8%
1.23
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
71.8%
1.41
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.36
+7.8%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.0%
1.31
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
-1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Crystal Palace · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ismaïla Sarr36%
Jean-Philippe Mateta24%
Edward Nketiah21%
Evann Guessand14%
Jørgen Strand Larsen14%
Daniel Muñoz11%
Yéremy Pino10%
Marc Guéhi9%
Christantus Uche9%
Justin Devenny6%
Maxence Lacroix6%
Tyrick Mitchell6%
Chris Richards4%
Daichi Kamada2%
Adam Wharton2%
Jefferson Lerma0%
Will Hughes0%
Nathaniel Clyne0%
Dean Henderson0%
Walter Benítez0%
Borna Sosa0%
Brennan Johnson0%
Chadi Riad0%
Kaden Rodney0%
Rio Cardines0%
Romain Esse0%
Jaydee Canvot0%
Joel Drakes-Thomas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chadi Riad33%
Borna Sosa29%
Jørgen Strand Larsen23%
Marc Guéhi22%
Will Hughes19%
Jaydee Canvot17%
Edward Nketiah16%
Yéremy Pino16%
Daniel Muñoz16%
Brennan Johnson15%
Adam Wharton15%
Jefferson Lerma15%
Romain Esse12%
Chris Richards12%
Maxence Lacroix11%
Tyrick Mitchell11%
Dean Henderson10%
Ismaïla Sarr9%
Daichi Kamada9%
Jean-Philippe Mateta8%
Nathaniel Clyne7%
Walter Benítez0%
Evann Guessand0%
Justin Devenny0%
Kaden Rodney0%
Rio Cardines0%
Christantus Uche0%
Joel Drakes-Thomas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adam Wharton10%
Marc Guéhi9%
Daichi Kamada9%
Daniel Muñoz9%
Jefferson Lerma9%
Chadi Riad8%
Yéremy Pino8%
Brennan Johnson8%
Tyrick Mitchell7%
Nathaniel Clyne7%
Evann Guessand7%
Jean-Philippe Mateta6%
Maxence Lacroix6%
Edward Nketiah5%
Jørgen Strand Larsen5%
Justin Devenny3%
Ismaïla Sarr2%
Will Hughes2%
Dean Henderson0%
Walter Benítez0%
Borna Sosa0%
Chris Richards0%
Kaden Rodney0%
Rio Cardines0%
Romain Esse0%
Christantus Uche0%
Jaydee Canvot0%
Joel Drakes-Thomas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jean-Philippe Mateta18%
Ismaïla Sarr16%
Christantus Uche9%
Evann Guessand7%
Borna Sosa6%
Yéremy Pino6%
Edward Nketiah5%
Jørgen Strand Larsen5%
Chris Richards4%
Brennan Johnson4%
Adam Wharton4%
Justin Devenny3%
Daniel Muñoz2%
Jefferson Lerma2%
Will Hughes2%
Maxence Lacroix2%
Daichi Kamada0%
Nathaniel Clyne0%
Dean Henderson0%
Walter Benítez0%
Marc Guéhi0%
Tyrick Mitchell0%
Chadi Riad0%
Kaden Rodney0%
Rio Cardines0%
Romain Esse0%
Jaydee Canvot0%
Joel Drakes-Thomas0%
Manchester City · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Erling Haaland55%
Antoine Semenyo42%
Rayan Cherki20%
Max Alleyne17%
Jérémy Doku15%
Phil Foden14%
Omar Marmoush14%
Nico O'Reilly13%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Savinho11%
Marc Guéhi10%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Rodri6%
Rúben Dias6%
Bernardo Silva6%
Nico González5%
Rico Lewis5%
Matheus Nunes2%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bernardo Silva28%
Gianluigi Donnarumma23%
Nico González20%
Rodri19%
Abdukodir Khusanov17%
Nico O'Reilly15%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Rúben Dias12%
Savinho11%
Phil Foden10%
Marc Guéhi10%
Omar Marmoush9%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Oscar Bobb7%
Tijjani Reijnders4%
Erling Haaland4%
Rayan Cherki4%
Antoine Semenyo4%
Nathan Aké3%
John Stones0%
Jérémy Doku0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Divine Mukasa33%
Rayan Cherki24%
Jérémy Doku19%
Joško Gvardiol16%
Erling Haaland16%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Phil Foden12%
Antoine Semenyo12%
Nico O'Reilly12%
Mateo Kovačić11%
Bernardo Silva9%
Omar Marmoush9%
Oscar Bobb7%
Savinho6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rodri0%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Nathan Aké0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Erling Haaland53%
Antoine Semenyo19%
Omar Marmoush17%
Tijjani Reijnders15%
Rayan Cherki12%
Phil Foden10%
Savinho8%
Rodri6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rico Lewis5%
Jérémy Doku4%
Joško Gvardiol4%
Nico O'Reilly4%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
Matheus Nunes0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Crystal Palace's squad is €821m less valuable than Manchester City's (€505m vs €1326m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Crystal Palace's attack is €406m less valuable than Manchester City's (€229m vs €635m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Crystal Palace's midfield is €67m less valuable than Manchester City's (€93m vs €160m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Crystal Palace's defence is €348m less valuable than Manchester City's (€182m vs €531m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Aston Villa
Tottenham