The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for ASA Targu Mures, 29% for CS Afumati and 29% for a draw. The expected total is 2.5 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% probability. CS Afumati, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while ASA Targu Mures, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Recent form shows CS Afumati coming off a win, whereas ASA Targu Mures has just suffered a defeat. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (95.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.4%), Under 4.5 (88.8%) and Away +2 handicap (87.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
CS Afumati win
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures win
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CS Afumati
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.30
1.06
1.31
1.71
1.29
vs Stronger (7)
1.71
1.43
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
1.26
0.92
1.42
1.64
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASA Targu Mures
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.20
1.93
1.00
1.19
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.23
1.62
1.00
1.00
1.46
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CS Afumati) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
9.9%
0-0
9.3%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.8%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.1%
CS Afumati goals ↓
ASA Targu Mures goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
9.9%
7.8%
3.6%
1.3%
1
7.8%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.1%
7.1%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
3
1.9%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CS Afumati goals (down), columns = ASA Targu Mures goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
CS Afumati is 0.60 points better than ASA Targu Mures in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
CS Afumati is 0.60 goals better than ASA Targu Mures in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
CS Afumati is 0.20 goals worse than ASA Targu Mures in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CS Afumati or Draw
58.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
42%
covers CS Afumati + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati or ASA Targu Mures
70.9%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
42%
covers CS Afumati + ASA Targu Mures
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or ASA Targu Mures
70.8%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
42%
covers Draw + ASA Targu Mures
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CS Afumati over/under 0.5
Over
67.7%
Under
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 1.5
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CS Afumati, so a minus line means CS Afumati give that many goals of a start and ASA Targu Mures receive them. At -1, CS Afumati must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CS Afumati win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CS Afumati)
CS Afumati -2
3.8%
Draw -2
8.4%
ASA Targu Mures +2
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (CS Afumati)
CS Afumati -1
12.1%
Draw -1
17.1%
ASA Targu Mures +1
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (CS Afumati)
CS Afumati +1
58.3%
Draw +1
21.3%
ASA Targu Mures -1
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (CS Afumati)
CS Afumati +2
79.7%
Draw +2
12.8%
ASA Targu Mures -2
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CS Afumati
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.38
0.50
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.61
0.42
0.58
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASA Targu Mures
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.86
0.36
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.50
0.85
0.38
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (CS Afumati) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.8%
Under 0.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.6%
Under 1.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.3%
Under 2.5
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CS Afumati over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.2%
Under
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CS Afumati
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
0.69
0.81
1.07
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.00
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.65
0.50
0.83
1.09
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASA Targu Mures
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.07
0.64
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.73
0.77
0.62
0.46
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
5.00
1.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (CS Afumati) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.5%
Under 0.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.7%
Under 1.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.8%
Under 2.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CS Afumati over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (37)
€11m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
ATM (22)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
FB (23)
€2m
VŞ (19)
€2m
GB (20)
€2m
CSM (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
CDB (14)
€1m
ŞTE (8)
€1m
CRV (10)
€1m
POP (9)
€1m
CS Afumati's squad is €2m less valuable than ASA Targu Mures's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (13)
€5m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
ATM (7)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
GB (8)
€1m
FB (8)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CRV (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
CSM (7)
€0m
CDB (3)
€0m
POP (3)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
ŞTE (2)
€0m
CS Afumati and ASA Targu Mures have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
FB (6)
€1m
ATM (4)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
GB (5)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
ŞTE (3)
€0m
CSM (4)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CDB (4)
€0m
CRV (1)
€0m
CS Afumati and ASA Targu Mures have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (15)
€5m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
ATM (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
CSM (8)
€1m
FB (9)
€1m
CDB (7)
€1m
ŞTE (3)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
GB (7)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CRV (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (2)
€0m
CS Afumati and ASA Targu Mures have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →