This Romania: Liga II match between CS Afumati and Chindia Targoviste is finely balanced, with the home team coming off a defeat and the away team having just won their previous match. CS Afumati has a 36% chance of winning, while Chindia Targoviste has a 33% chance. The most likely match result is a home win for CS Afumati, according to the model's pick. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.4%. CS Afumati has scored 1 goal on average at home against similar opponents, conceding 1.4 goals, while Chindia Targoviste has scored 0.9 goals on average away against similar opponents, conceding 1.7 goals. The model's selection is Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 78.5%. Suggested picks include Under 3.5, with a 78.5% probability, and the home win percentage is 36%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 33%.
CS Afumati's 0-3 loss to Chindia Targoviste extends their recent form woes, having previously suffered two consecutive defeats, including a 0-3 loss to the same opponent. In a stunning upset, Chindia Targoviste secured an away win, defying pre-match favourite CS Afumati. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 36%. The model's call was wrong. The suggested pick, Under 3.5, was correct, hitting with a probability of 78.5%. The most likely scores, 1-1, 0-0, and 1-0, were not realised, with the actual score being 0-3.
CS Afumati| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.27 | 1.00 | 1.27 | 1.73 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.44 | 1.56 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.33 | 1.14 | 0.90 | 1.30 | 1.73 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Chindia Targoviste| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.43 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 0.93 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.43 | 1.52 | 1.91 | 1.45 | 1.00 | 1.58 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Chindia Targoviste goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
CS Afumati| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.52 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Chindia Targoviste| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.83 | 0.70 | 1.09 | 0.45 | 0.58 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
CS Afumati| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.89 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.81 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 1.09 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Chindia Targoviste| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.61 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78.5% | 1.25 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +5.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 03/05/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 03/09/24 | A | 0-1 |
CS Afumati| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
Chindia Targoviste| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 09/08/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 04/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 31/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 05/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |